저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2월 고용보고서는 시장예상을 크게 상회(약 67.8만 vs 42.3만 예상)하며 실업률 3.8%로 하락해 양호하다고 평가. 1월 임금 급등(연환산 8.8%)은 1월 수치 하향 수정(31.63→31.57)으로 임금-물가 악순환 우려가 완화됐다고 주장. 러시아의 우크라이나 원전 장악 등 지정학 리스크로 나스닥 등이 하락했고, 밀 가격 급등은 수확기(8월) 이전 전쟁이 끝나면 급락할 수 있다고 봄. 연준은 25bp 인상 기조를 유지할 가능성이 높다고 전망.
다듬은 글
holy smokes thank the lord oh my gosh this morning's labor report was so good because of what was deep inside of it not because of the headline numbers but what it means for the fed rug poll folks we gotta talk about this unemployment or employment report and why the market is still going to poopy dupes we're gonna talk about that right now in this video and if you need any solution for your stresses remember just go to medkkevin.com life to make sure you sign up for life insurance you can get e still in pandemic and there's a war going on medkevin.com life okay folks this employment report was amazing and it again was not just because we had about 250 000 more jobs than expected the bloomberg survey had us at about 423 000 jobs uh the unemployment rate falling to about 3.9 percent we ended up getting about 678 000 jobs unemployment rate falling to 3.8 great fine whatever uh and most sectors gaining i mean almost i i don't think there was actually a negative sector here leisure hospitality gained the most 179 000 food and drinking places within that umbrella 124k professional business services 95k 64k healthcare construction 60k i mean the economy is still hiring like absolute bonkers now i'll tell you this data was collected in a particular week within february and you're going to want to know what that week is but i'll tell you that right after i tell you this now to really understand what the heck happened in february which is the report we just got we've got to understand what happened in january and why it was such a disaster in terms of what it could have signaled to us so in january earnings went up 23 cents this was that blue section right here 21 cents or 23 cents rather all the way up to 3163 31.63 so these are the average hourly earnings now in order to understand how much this actually went up the correct thing to do is actually minus 23 cents here so you end up with the old number now you can do a little bit of division and it's quite simple you just divide the current number by the old number and then you're going to get a number that starts with 1.
so i'm going to divide this 31.63 divided by 31.4 and i get 1.00732 1.007 now what we're going to do is we're going to subtract 1 from this so we get rid of uh so we just have the difference left and then we're going to multiply the rest by 12. so we're going to subtract off one and then really what we're just multiplying by 12 is this here right so we're going to multiply 0.00732 times 12 and then we get this number that looks like this 0.088 i'm rounding a little bit here which is basically an annualized wage increase of move the decimal eight point eight percent that's insane okay that is really really high especially because last month inflation was seven and a half percent this means the start of a wage price spiral which is very very bad for that to continue because that basically means workers have more power to demand more wages more so than prices are actually going up and it could start a self-sustaining cycle of inflation survey said that we are seeing evidence of a start of a con a wage price spiral that is decoupling from supply chains which means even as supply chains get better and prices go down wages could just keep everything getting worse and worse and worse that's like literally crisis mode worst case scenario the federal reserve will force a recession pure fud pure disaster everything goes to heck very very bad well folks guess what happened here average hourly earnings of all employees were 31.58 little changed after large increases so they stayed flat but wait a second wait a second this says 31.58 but wait the last report we had said wages went up to 31.63 and going up to 31.63 was equal to an 8.8 percent increase that's why we were freaking out about a potential wage price spiral but wait a minute now they just went back and said no no no wages actually last month were uh 31.57 we went back and revised it and changed it and now they went up one cent to 31.58 like wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute that's actually doubly good news so what you're saying is wages did not go up to signify a wage price spiral in february and this is not to say we don't want people to make more money right it's just to say like in terms of an inflation aspect this is good like they're up but they're stable but you actually revised them down so last month we actually only had wage growth of about 6.6 which is actually less than the inflation rate which is not a signal of the wage price spiral so not only do we have no wage growth now but last month you took away the wage price spiral that you said there was so you said you were wrong last month and now you're revising the data saying no no never mind last month wasn't even that bad okay like wait a minute this is actually really good news this is really really good news because the biggest fear the federal reserve has in my opinion is the potential start of a wage price spiral where they have to force a recession and then we have to start fighting the fears of potential stagflation what does this now mean that the federal reserve could potentially do well they they have two options here they could potentially be more hawkish maybe they could raise rates more right because the labor market's doing so well but i don't think they're going to do that because we're actually seeing wages flat and now we're already seeing people's purchasing power go down because we're going to get you know look we had 7.75 inflation last month right six point six percent was the actual weight annualized wage growth for last month which means a reduction in purchasing power this month wages or last month you know feb uh compared to january anyway feb wages stayed flat which means again a reduction in purchasing power so why would the fed decide oh this report is going to make us go more hawkish it likely won't the fed's likely going to stick with their 25 basis point hike hike hike this report reiterates great we've got a stable labor market but not one that's running away to where we have to be aggressive and try to dampen how much wages are going up nope that is not a problem anymore which is really good news because it substantially reduces the chance of the federal reserve's rug pull on top of that you probably if anything are going to keep the fed in a little bit more of a dovish direction to try to support the labor market as much as possible while trying to control overall headline inflation and so in my opinion that is that course of 25 basis point hikes consistently so to me this is actually a great news this is a very good report i'm very very happy about this but not everything is good because unfortunately buried in this report we find out when this survey was actually taken and unfortunately this survey not that necessarily it's going to make a difference but this survey was taken around the 12th day of the month which was about 12 days before the russian incursion i'm not sure how much the russian incursion is actually going to affect hiring but this report does not give us any indication either or like we certainly don't have any russia drama i should say priced in to this report so that is uh that is worth noting that next month is when we'll actually see what impact russia is potentially having on our jobs market so that is an asterisk and an unknown however the stock market cared momentarily in fact if we look at the pre-market here we could see this is the nasdaq technology here we had a nice little bump on the jobs report not much but we definitely saw a bump here unfortunately this all got sold off because of fears uh that russia has taken control of a nuclear power plant this is not like a nuclear weapons plant it's a power plant in a specific region in ukraine unfortunately this is also that city where we saw thousands of individuals line up trucks and sandbags and tires and stand there to defend the glory of ukraine well unfortunately that facility has been taken over by russians and this is leading to increased fear that potentially this this war is going to drag on much longer that putin has no interest in negotiating a ceasefire as we've seen in negotiations over the last day and unfortunately that this could continue dragging on and out which is terrible uh it's it is exactly why we are seeing wheat our index here for wheat skyrocketing let's go to the day chart here look at this you're probably up about 50 to 70 percent here which makes sense because wheat prices are up about 70 year-to-date which is wild and most of that has happened within the last 30 days specifically because of the incursion in ukraine because of a substantial amount of wheat exports that come from ukraine now the wheat harvest is not actually until august so if this crisis is over within the next month or two and uh too many wheat fields were hopefully not destroyed well let me make sure i said that correctly let's hope many wheat fields weren't destroyed then i would expect wheat prices to plummet very very very quickly so if you're short-term speculating on this great but just know when this turns it's going to turn fast so just just bear that in mind now it's it's also worth noting that uh some riskier plays are selling down right now uh upstart open door qqq look at how you've even got dave and buster's coming down five percent sofi kills it on earnings and just plummets here a firm falling right so there's a lot of pain in these more profitless riskier sections uh and and that is normal uh that is normal this is the kind of market where i do think it's a mistake to get into the riskier uh a profit uh companies uh and it's a mistake that i've made as well i i try my best to limit the mistakes that i made and recognize them when i when i do make the mistakes but what i'll do is i'll do a portfolio update for everyone yeah in a different video and we'll take it from there so anyway happy to share this good new
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