저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 미국 대형 제약주 대신 영국·스위스 제약사(아스트라제네카·글락소스미스클라인·노바티스)를 매수 관점에서 추천. 배경: 최근 1년간 국내 제약·바이오주 부진. 바이오 ETF(IBB)는 4년간 -4%, 제약 섹터는 -19%, S&P500은 +53%로 크게 하회. 미국 약가 규제·의료보험 개편 우려가 원인. 외국 제약사 선호 이유: 미국 매출 비중이 낮음(아스트라제네카 33% 미만, 글락소 39%, 노바티스 34%)으로 미국 정책 리스크 완화. 엘리자베스 워런 대선 승리 시 단일보험 도입 우려에도 유럽사는 가격통제 경험이 풍부. 아스트라제네카: 폐암(Tagrisso·Imfinzi 등), 난소암(Lynparza), 당뇨·심부전·신장질환(Farxiga), 면역 파이프라인 기대. 올해 주가 +19%, 배당수익률 3.1%, PER 약 22.5배. 비용 절감으로 마진 상승 전망. 글락소스미스클라인: CEO 엠마 윌럼슬리 체제에서 구조조정, 종양 분야 투자. 2019년 12월 Tesaro 인수(51억 달러), 소비자부문 Pfizer 합병 추진. 2분기 실적 상회, 연간 실적 전망 상향. 주가수익비율 약 14배 내외, 배당수익률 4.8%. 가장 매력적이라고 강조. 노바티스: CEO 바스 나라심한 하에서 소비자사업 분리(Alcon 분사). Avexis 인수(89억 달러) 등 유전자치료 확장. 2분기 매출·EPS 호조. 다만 Avexis 데이터 조작 의혹으로 FDA 질책, 회사는 부인하고 관련자 해고. PER 약 15배, 배당수익률 3.2%. 리스크: Avexis 소송 및 규제 이슈, 미국 약가 정책 변화, 파이프라인 승인 불확실성. 결론: 미국 정치 리스크를 피하면서 제약 익스포저를 원하면 잘 운영되는 외국 제약사 매수 유지 권고.
다듬은 글
from the last year most in the domestic format and biotech stocks and you know I had been dead money right investors are paralyzed by fears of lawsuits Oh tell me about it the potential for new legislation that might crack down on drug pricing in fact it's been going on even longer than that over the past four years the whole group is measured by the IBB iShares Nasdaq biotech ETF and the investigates former ETF Kiba this is what they've created this all doesn't matter well it's been hammered biotech down 4% pharma tab 19% well the sp500 53% of the same period you know I run the chapel trust action was passed calmly we try to be diversified but every time we try to do Pharma it's it's been terrible so what do you do what's your intuition is you completely abandon the drug stocks get your healthcare exposure from less precarious parts of the sector I mean like the medical device makers they're doing better no no I you know my you don't need to give up on the whole complex right but you do need to get more selective and more creative with these stocks for example last Friday I told you to keep an eye on Abdi I said I liked it because of its process of acquiring allergen I'm betting that deal has a lot of potential did you notice that Abby was up more than 3% this week thanks for fresh upgrade from city yesterday and it was really good piece and now I've got another way to approach this group because I'm mulling over and with instead o mole and over mole nervous and I gotta find a way to get people farm exposure with less risk if the domestic drug stocks aren't working how about this how about the foreign drug stocks as it turns out many the foreign pharmaceutical names are performing a lot better than to mess appears the three that jump out at me that we're gonna talk about right now our Astra Zeneca khalaq so SmithKline and the Fortis now I think some of that may be because they have moderately less USS pleasure than their American counterparts so something like a medicare-for-all or even price control some drugs wouldn't hurt them a little less I'm not saying they have no exposure but I'm not saying they have more exposure it's just a little better but when it comes to these three companies in particular they've each got something going for them right now that allows them to throw off the gravitational pull the pharmaceutical sector and allows them to rally AstraZeneca which I hadn't thought about for years because it was such a dog this is a big British form of company if you're worried about developments in the United States after static he gets less than 33% of its sales from here that's substantially lower than most American drug companies and if Elizabeth Warren wins the presidency in a landslide allowing her to implement a single-payer health care system a lot of investors are betting that European companies like this one AstraZeneca well have works expertise of dealing with it than their American rivals now that might be a stretch all the big pharma companies of global operators but something like Astra Zeneca has marginally less exposure to America and markedly more experience navigating healthcare systems that have price controls or single-payer now earlier this month JP Morgan hosted a conference call with Pascal soryo he's AstraZeneca CEO where he laid out the bookcase for his company I found a very compelling goes like this they've had a bunch of positive clinical trial results that will allow them to launch some potential huge new products or expand existing products into the new markets now you're gonna have to forgive me because I'm about to go into the world of Pharma mumbo jumbo they've got tog Greece oh that's a treatment for non small cell lung cancer they're negotiating reimbursement rates with China on this one and if all goes well it could be very lucrative unfortunately China has rendus numbers of people with this disease then there's M thin Z which is a monoclonal antibody drug that's also used for lung cancer where the expecting some label expansion right now it's only approved from you say for chemo radiation you've got Lin Parsa that's an ovarian cancer drug that could work also for prostate cancer AstraZeneca is also got far Zika which helps low blood sugar levels in patients with type 2 diabetes also means study for heart failure and chronic kidney disease okay there's some wine up on oh and they've got a cow quince this is a mantle cell lymphoma treatment the reason we received breakthrough therapy designation with the FDA and other really terrific data on top of all that AstraZeneca has some late stage pipeline candidates they could have enormous potential like a rock sudah stat for people with anemia caused by chronic kidney disease or an afro a month for lupus and other into--into immune conditions meanwhile sales for these drugs rib AstraZeneca has gotten aggressive about keeping its costs in line and management sees the margins going higher after years of investing in this pipeline those moves are finally paying off hence why the stock's up 19% year today I think aster said it because the tough touch too expensive I remember you 7/8 multiple now it's got twenty two point five but it's got three point one percent dividend yield which makes the pill easier to swallow and can I just say that I remember meeting with management years ago and they kept telling me they were gonna have all these great cancer drugs but it takes so long to develop them well guess what they're here next is GlaxoSmithKline that's another gigantic British drug company gets just 39 percent of its sales from us I've been a fan of this one ever since we sat down with classes new CEO Emma walmsley at the beginning of year we were that JPMorgan health care conference obviously is a brilliant plan to transform GlaxoSmithKline she's been divesting clocks those more commoditized businesses and investing heavily in fast-growing new areas like oncology for example back in December they bought to sorrow that's a biotech focus on cancer and for 5.1 billion dollars and they agreed to spin off their consumer products division and merge it with Pfizer's at the moment clots are stuck in kind of an in-between state of transitions here as it works to complete these major deals or at least that's how it looked a few months ago but then the company reported it better than expected quarter in late July dramatically raising its full-year earnings forecast plus clock saw has at least five high-profile drugs and Phase three trials that could potentially become blockbusters over the next few years put it all the other and I'm even more bullish about GlaxoSmithKline that I was in jail right when I was kind of blown away holy cow why am i overlooking this one this Glaxo that a lot going for it oh and with the stocks up for less than 14 times earnings I'm Clarence steel plus Walmsley is paying in weight 4.8% yield that's a good investment finally how about well my Chapel Trust is buy and we talk about it for the club fractions plus comm Novartis it's the gigantic Swiss drug making with only 34 percent exposure in the American market okay just like Glaxo Novartis is trying to transform itself under the leadership of CEO bast Narasimhan the company has shed its consumer businesses even spinning off its eye over-the-counter eye care of business as Alcon in april we told me Meester tells me like that one at the same time the Vortice has been snapping up smaller companies that are pioneering new technologies like a vexes that's a gene therapy play that bought from yearly nine billion dollars now in July the company delivered much better than expected numbers 8% sales grows on a constant currency basis quarter earnings per share of twenty percent these numbers transport street estimates at thanks to the strengthened Novartis is psoriasis heart failure and oncology franchises on top of that in the Vardis also had some big product launches coming up including a major breast cancer treatment now there's one fly in the ointment that I think is holding a stop back last month the FDA rebuked of artists for failing to disclose that the newly acquired of vexes had been manipulating data on its big new gene therapy Novartis has denied all wrongdoing they've already fired everyone who was involved and it sure seems like this gene therapy is still very much on track to be approved but this was still an ugly headline well I don't like it it's not a deal-breaker for me it might be for you I trust vos to do the right thing you may not but I don't know we have to just go with our guts here fortunately those not so light headlines mean you combine Novartis at a discount here stop trading in fifteen times earnings it's putting in 3.2 percent yield that's why we picked up some of the varnish early this month for the trust and you can follow along if you're worried about the lawsuit we're following it very closely by joining the action alerts plus calm Club and we're sending out bulletins regularly about where Novartis is with this problem here's the bottom line if you want big farm exposure with fewer headaches related to US politics you can always buy a well-run farm drug company these are all three are terrific AstraZeneca GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis all three buys stick with cre
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