The U.S. could go a decade with no recession, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

미국 경제는 금리 인상과 지정학 리스크에도 침체 없이 회복력을 보였고 고용도 견조하다. 이 성장이 이익 증가로 이어져 시장을 뒷받침할 수 있으나 밸류에이션은 이미 높다. 빅테크 집중은 우려할 수준이 아니며 S&P500 중심 미국 투자(stay home) 전략을 장기간 권고해 왔다. 정책 변동에도 민간 경제가 강해 투자자는 정치 이슈에 휘둘리지 말아야 한다.

다듬은 글

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01. let's talk about it all with Ed yardeni he is president of yardeni research I love the optimism Ed you think it's possible we just let the good times roll right into the 2030s well look Brian I think the economy just demonstrated its resilience right over the past three years we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that didn't happen it was a no no show recession and I think it demonstrated that even with the FED raising interest rates aggressively with some of the geopolitical issues that uh challenged the global economy and despite all that the economy grew there's no recession and I think we have to kind of take that into consideration that maybe this economy really is resilient we just had some upward revisions in the labor market that show that the labor market has actually been very strong and resilient unemployment rate remains around 4% so so far so good but here's the dirty secret we're learning this in Germany right and the German economy is not good costs are higher but their stock market is well outperforming ours this year can show the disconnect between economies and stock markets so if our economy Ed remains strong and we all hope it does does that necessarily mean the stock market will also remain strong well Germany has a lot of uh a lot of conflicting developments their economy looks pretty weak they're competing with with China China's literally eating their lunch uh when it comes to car production so they they've got some they've also got a really messed up transition from fossil fuels to clean energy uh we have our own challenges but overall the economy is doing extremely well and I think it's going to generate earnings that will drive the market higher I wouldn't really want to see the market go higher on valuation because valuation is already stretched but I think valuations at current levels actually can be justified if investors are kind of looking at the economy the way I am and and that is it's just proved its resilience why can't it continue to be resilient and grow if that's the case we could be looking at a fairly long period of economic growth earnings growth and that's uh good for the market Ed that was going to be exactly my question the push back that I hear from people is not about the stock market broadly because you can look around and say look there's things happening in AI there's Innovation but it's about the mag7 in particular um you know whose valuation isn't that wild but they just think you know everyone in one boat they're in the S&P 500 they're in the mega caps there's no more buyers left and uh you know we're going to mean revert and we started to see that in January well look I have really no problem with this concentration issue that people are worrying about that there's uh you know the Magnificent sub account for 30% of the market cap of the S&P 500 there's lots of other stock markets around the world where a handful of companies really account for most of the market cap of of their markets in our situation these are credible companies I mean they don't have a lot of debt they're generating a lot of cash flow they are able to buy smaller companies uh with the technologies that they can leverage up and make them uh worldclass Technologies uh so I don't really have a problem with that I also don't have a problem with the Magnificent 7 resting for a while and for some uh kind of regrouping where investors put more money in the S&P 493 which on a relative basis are cheaper and they probably get a lot more benefit of of AI than even the Magnificent s but you wouldn't see a reason to you know avoid the S SMP kind of the classic you or you know to kind of double down on small Caps or go International or whatever well well I've been uh recommending an investment strategy of stay home as opposed to go Global since 2010 I mean at some point I will probably overstay my welcome but it just has worked for a very very long period of time as Brian said Europe at least on a shortterm basis has has outperformed but uh that's I think the trend is uh America continues to be a much more Diversified much stronger much more resilient economy than most others and I think that's what's reflected in the in the stock market you know I also just wanted to ask I thought it was interesting that you you kind of talk about ignoring Washington and this week it feels like the market is ignoring Washington we've had a myriad developments that you could say are cause for concern and they're just kind of being Shrugged off one thing people have said is look if they're trying to shrink the federal Workforce or put more of those people into the more productive private sector like that's the trend to focus on in the longer run is that is that how you absolutely and it's consistent with the idea that uh you know pay attention to to the economy itself look how it's you know the the headlines uh with all due respect to what you do and what I do you know we tend to focus on the macroeconomic policies monetary policy fiscal policy uh just spent a couple of hours watching the Fed chair at at in Congress uh but the reality is the rest of us working stiffs are doing an amazing job of keeping the economy go going despite Washington and so yeah my my conclusion is that first of all when it comes to investing don't let your politics get in the way the market goes up and has done well uh whether it's Democrats or Republicans and again I think it's because uh the the stock market the the the private economy the private sector uh continues to perform extremely well despite Washington and I think that's a that's an important thing to consider when you're investing all right Ed y Denny looking head to the Roaring 30s