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Jim Cramer: Apple is a "black hole stock"

CNBC Television · 2018-12-10 · 유튜브 시청 99,585 · Board Views 5 · International

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we said we're gonna talk about Apple that in the company stock slide continues just so Jim I want to know what you make of this that Chinese Court grants this injunction to Qualcomm now there's a debate over which phones if any are actually banned you're reporting on the ground literally I had pinched your photo evidence suggest the phones are still being sold they are however it's just another issue now for investors to deal with right I mean this is a broken stock of a great company and I think we all want to technique broken stock and I I think that at this point you are getting the service stream as you want in other words at 2:30 was the service stream worth something under peaceful mountain market cap now I think you're finally getting it where are you it's a 12 a look it's 12 times earnings you say let's say they don't make the number that everybody's using it's 11 you know let's say it's 13 times earnings now great balance you may disagree with me because of the of the convert oh yeah I mean the equity that these you know bonds at the it's not a negative that they've done that but it's not a pristine balance sheet there's a lot of debt and a lot of cash you want to make people I'm getting that I'm not saying about so I actually would like to issue a doji alert on Apple I don't know if we have a graphic for doji alert but this could be a meaningful turning point in the stock today right now here's the situation stock opened that in 165 got down to a low of 163 33 this morning the high was 168 160 688 so now you're back at 165 the buyers came in where they should have and they battled all the way back up to the opening price if you get a doji what that signifies I know we don't do Candlestick charting on this network one day but what that signifies is that the buyers have come in and changed the trends so it's premature stock has to close here but if it closes it 165 you will see the technician crowd get behind this name if you're a fundamental investor even if it's not a turnaround and it's not a doji signifying that trend change guess what this is the most profitable company maybe in the history of the world selling at a 30% discount to its highs at twelve point four times forward earnings 14 trailing even if that twelve point four isn't accurate you are still buying maybe the best company ever at a huge discount to where it was trading so I like the per traders I like it for four fundamental investors and I think that there's room to make a purchase and then have to make a lower purchase in the New York that's so much then I mean you think about but you got proctoring GOG rowing very I like the doji wood but you got proctoring gave me a Clorox you got these companies that are growing very slowly and their consumer Potter companies at this point I really think you have to look at Apple as a consumer product company and decide you know well jury luggage as luxury consumer product and that you have to pick some up but I look I've I have liked it and urged no trading I say owners that owned it that was a great call it at twenty that I made it in fifty obviously if someone imported it to thirty listen he wants to kill me but I don't know I've been consistent there's nothing I don't want to trade it what do you make of of what Josh said about those either technicals the technicals the techno crowd is not with us on this until did you right yeah if the activity that he sees in the stock which you know it's now back above 165 what sort of a becomes that key level of where it opened today well I mean first of all you can unless we actually know that the Chinese Communist Party is said listen we're not gonna let them sell anymore iPhones in this province has one time issued another injunction years ago then I think this is a new story that will evaporate Qualcomm malin cough has been adamant that they are talking with you apples at yes apples on Mad Money apples say they're not talking not just on the sidelines on mad may have money that he said it on Mad Money I think that there's a dispute about that but I will make this point that at what point does it have to sell it nine times earnings our earnings going to laugh so so two things on that China has been a tough market for Apple anyway it's not like that's their best market they struggle every quarter they have issues with China that's a so let's say the market right now is discounting that there will be an issue selling phones well there's already been one and now he's had two hundred eighty billion dollars ripped out of the market cap so let's not act like the street is waking up to this as a risk whether it could already be in the stock they're acting as if the eleven billion in Chinese sales in this previous quarter it's gonna evaporate next their and that there's going to lose forty billion dollars in sales and I just don't think that you can get up in some small province but of course their provinces are bigger than anything we have birth that is really T really if I have pictures of people buying them today big buying they here to call buy huge call buying December 170 calls those desires the doji fires were last night my wife said what are you doing with the dough 2,000 of these calls that expire on Friday now it's a lot of people put in this stock didn't I did you teii by bought calls and I bought more stock i bought stock calling a guy while the I mean I'm just trying to get the level did you go service 150 160 404 guys guys all it all we're talking about is a trend reversal candle it's a big deal look if you think a lot of money is one algorithmically and then you understand that the inputs are technical if you think that a lot of short-term traders are managing risk on technicals this may be changes that that sentiment so I don't think the fundamentals of Apple have deteriorated to the point where it should have lost almost a third of its market cap but that's what's happened and I think maybe this is the kind of turnaround in an individual stock that could mean bigger things for the rest of the market it would be huge black hole stock that's nicely off the lows by the way they you still have the pile on though from the research community right so that's they're always cuts the target to too high turd it is it is a process that is unfolding over the last eight weeks when you look at large cap mutual funds they are shedding the allocation towards Apple when you look at hedge funds they are shedding the allocation towards Apple when you look at the analysts doctors took back 160 analyst by the way they who do intraday up for me please sorry Joe the analyst community who is always late is going to lower the price target what does that do that creates a perfect setup for 2019 and I think what's important is when you look at where the ten-year Treasury was when this process began it was approaching three and a quarter that's an environment where growth type stocks get challenged the ten years back to 285 so it - 85 ten-year if I'm a large cap money manager what do I want - I want value or do I want sustainable growth earnings in a low rate environment I know the answer we all know the answer in the desc plus plus dividends plus quality Apple checks all the boxes for that but you have to allow for these final couple of weeks I agree with everybody has to cut you have to final three weeks so are downgrades you might have a doji at one secret but you might get another doji at 155 but I still think you buy bells you know what they say about two doji's you buy these when you can not optimal not when you have to you don't like to Jim's point right you don't chase it up at two twenty to thirty but this one has come in to you so much same thing with Facebook I talked about it last week we were buying it because of activity at 1:34 he talked about it with you Friday Scott and for unusual activity they announced a nine billion dollar buyback I mean these are companies that are gonna continue to buy back shares so much cash that you're about getting at a desk badly Jim does the market need Apple oh I think it's really important I think that Apple is representative of what's going on but let it be trade whether it be the price earnings multiple whether it be the faith in the way that how about the biggest biggest stock in the Nasdaq this is this is the name this is the environment the word right now and again let's talk about Apple so far year-to-date intestines back by the way what we just did come on the doji speaking in the music and play the doji SP put a doji picture get the volume can we point out the volume today the volume is explosive today versus average daily accuses these accuse will be positive within twenty minutes that's that's how this stuff is just the halftime show that turned the whole market around about Alice in Wonderland geez but the environment that we're in right now when you're trying to identify which stocks are going to work when you look at S&P 500 companies so far year today companies that in the SP you could identify as a strong balance sheet company their six percent companies that a weak balance sheet they're down two percent companies that have domestic sales their ups percent companies with international sales they're down 5% that's the exact environment that we're in right now and when you're looking for opportunities in nineteen dose conditions aren't going to change you'll also notice by the way at the bottom right of your screen as Apple Rises you know that boat is helping everything the Dow is we had a lot of this is psychological then that makes perfect sense you can't have the biggest the third biggest now stock of the world in freefall and expect to get traction in Nvidia she's not gonna happen the algos are good right now the AL goes okay this from you know no one's no one's complaining Texas so-called old tech Cisco best idea this is the lowest risk large-cap tech stock because the growth accelerated the price of d rams which is a key ingredient is coming down this is one that we're chuck Robbins has fundamentally changed the company into a Internet of Things cybersecurity company with great growth we still need the network this stock barely got hit when the market came down I know that Apple is everyone's looking at but I think Cisco represents better by better by better by and I know you were trained I know you're high on the job Cisco though is it like government and combination of government and large telecom like is that what they're really selling used to be it's really kind of Internet of Things every year you're talking about a huge amount large enterprise it's and by the way just so we know they have put together a really great suite of cyber security in a world where my wife spent six hours because she was hacked on her phone Apple for six hours and said I think Hackney has affected all of us and Cisco has a fantastic suite that is really second to none and they just did it because put it together he's remarkable he's a remarkable and you know what's really to mark about him is he's a falcon fan they still can come work every day yeah that's easy yes who in his fantasy and that's really about all that's really other than the good earnings that he has what he's good and clean got wife and kids but the fact is he's a falcon fin you

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