저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 경기는 막대한 통화 발행과 차입 덕에 아직 견조하지만 인플레이션과 금리 상승을 낳고 있고, 전쟁이 끝나면 마지막 랠리 후 1970년대 이후 최악의 약세장과 경기침체가 올 것이라는 전망. 전쟁 종결 시 중앙은행 우려가 줄어들며 큰 랠리가 한 번 나온 뒤, 그것이 마지막 랠리가 되고 역대 최악의 베어마켓이 온다는 주장. 근거는 과도한 부채이며, 2008~2009년 위기 이후 부채가 크게 늘어 다음 약세장이 더 심각할 것이라고 함. 달러 패권에 대해서는 미국이 제재를 남용해 중국·러시아·인도·브라질·이란 등이 달러 대체재를 찾고 있으며, 약 80~100년 이어진 기축통화 지위가 끝나가고 있다고 주장. 다만 구체적 기간은 제시하지 않음. 디지털화폐에 대해서는 암호화폐는 투기 수단으로만 보면 괜찮지만 화폐로 성공하면 회의적이라고 밝힘. 중국 디지털위안화 확산을 지켜보며 정부의 통제 욕구를 우려함. 원유는 글로벌 시장이라 누군가는 결국 사고 러시아산 여부는 표시되지 않을 것이라고 봄. 제재는 단기 효과만 있고 우회로가 생긴다는 입장이며, 쿠바 사례를 듦. 유럽은 러시아 석유(약 28%)와 천연가스(약 40%) 의존도가 높지만, 러시아는 냉전기에도 생존했으므로 이번에도 살아남을 것이라고 봄. 푸틴이 고령이라 체제가 바뀔 수 있으나 나라는 생존한다고 함. 전쟁이 생각보다 빨리 끝날 가능성이 있으며, 유럽·러시아·중국 모두 전쟁 확대를 원하지 않는 듯하다고 전망. 한국 종목·지수에 대한 직접 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
so we're going to have in my view the war is going to end someday and when it does we'll have a big rally in the markets because people are not so worried about central banks anymore the central banks are scared have a big rally and that's the last rally and then we have a bear market and we have the worst bear Market in my lifetime and which means we also have a bad economy the debt I mean Adam this may sound dramatic but we had a bad Market in 2008 2009 bad economy since then we and that was because of too much debt Adam since then the debt has skyrocketed can't even count how much the debt is up since then so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I'm not trying to scare you I'm just telling you facts what is your current assessment of the global economy and financial markets right now well there are two different things the economy is in the financial markets but most economies are and continue to be reasonably strong because there was so much money printed and so much money borrowed and spent and you know Adam if you give me a trillion dollars I'll show you a very good time and we're all having a very good time uh I don't know how much longer it could last it is leading to inflation which is leading to higher interest rates and then of course there's war as well War has never been good for anybody except a few few generals but the rest of us suffer so we're going to have in my view the war is going to end someday and when it does we'll have a big rally in the markets because people are not so worried about central banks anymore the central banks are scared have a big rally and that's the last rally and then we have a bear market and we have the worst bear Market in my lifetime and which means we also have a bad economy the debt I mean Adam this may sound dramatic but we had a bad Market in 2008 2009 bad economy since then we and that was because of too much debt Adam since then the debt has skyrocketed can't even count how much the debt is up since then so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I'm not trying to scare you I'm just telling you facts International medium of exchange is supposed to be neutral you can use it for anything you could buy drugs buy your girlfriend a coat you do whatever you want to with an international medium of exchange but now if Washington gets angry at you they put sanctions on you and you cannot use it so needless to say lots of countries are saying wait a minute we got to find something else because if America ever gets angry we're we're in real trouble so China Russia India Brazil many Iran many countries are now looking frantically have been but now it's accelerated looking for or something to compete with the US dollar I don't like saying it Adam I'm an American but I have to face facts and what Washington is doing is ending a hundred years or so or 80 years or so that the US dollar has been the world's Reserve currency not good for you not good for me certainly not good for our kids my deeper concern is and I know a lot of people who've made a lot of money to do a trading crypto many many computer currencies have disappeared already and gone to zero as I'm sure you know but everybody's working on it including the us all money is going to be on the computer eventually it already is in China in China you cannot take a taxi with money Chinese money you cannot buy an ice cream with money in China you have to have it on the computer they're ahead of us but everybody's going to be there but when the U.S says okay Adam this is money now but if you want to use that money over there you can use that money over there that's not to what bureaucrats and politicians think they want control they want Monopoly I don't like it but they love it so that's why I have not as long as the cryptocurrencies are just trading Vehicles who cares but if they become successful as money as the Bulls say then I'm skeptical the Chinese money is becoming more and more International every week I mean it's not a competitor to the US dollar yet but it's certainly getting there this being forced America is shooting itself in the foot and forcing people to use other currencies and other ways to trade and buy and sell and as for oily so okay the oil Market is a gigantic International Market somebody will buy that oil it may not have a sign on it that says oil from Russia it just may say oil right somebody will buy it if you give it the right price everybody needs oil so sure somebody's going to buy it I'm not because I don't need any oil but somebody will do you fear that Russia could potentially collapse economically here well anybody in Labs economically and many have and many will but there are many studies that show that sanctions don't work and certainly in my own experience they don't work maybe they work for a short period of time but the human beings are smart enough to figure out a way to get around sanctions you can circumvent them yeah that's what you're saying yeah whether it's legal or not human beings find a way and so sanctions have never been really been very effective we've had sanctions against Cuba for decades you know they're still there they have cute sanctions against many people many times and they don't work politicians like it because they can go on TV and say see those are evil people and I put sanctions on I have saved the world can the West afford to cut itself off from Russian Supply I mean Russia is a top and sometimes the dominant provider of a lot of key currency Commodities and and I'll just use one example here um Europe is heavily dependent upon Russia for a key essential which is you know heating energy they import 28 percent of their oil from Russia but they import I think 40 percent of their natural gas is this something that they can can sustainably find other Supply in time and you're not old enough to remember the Cold War but in the Cold War Russia did nothing with anybody and somehow Russia survived somehow they was absurd it was a terrible what place to be and it was a terrible way to live but Russia survived and Russia is going to survive this as well maybe in very very bad circumstances as they were you know 40 years ago but Russia will survive there will be black markets there are always black markets do I am I Keen no of course I'm not keen but I have seen enough countries go through this kind of stuff and they always say to the people Mother Russia and the people say yes Mother Russia we will support Mother Russia or mother whatever good name you want to use and people put up with it it's crazy but they do and Russia will survive maybe not as we know it and maybe Mr well Mr Putin's getting older so he's not going to survive forever although he thinks he is but so it will change but even if it's blocked off for another 40 years as it was under the Communist it'll survive and the world will survive many people right now are frantic because natural gas much stuff that they use comes from from Russia and parts of the economy will have to close down now this is war is not very good for this war especially is not very good for anybody not even Mr Putin he's learning and I suggest that the war will end probably sooner than we expect or hope because of that the Europeans don't seem to be Keen many Russians don't be same don't seem to be too Keen the Chinese are not jumping in and say oh more war more war more War uh no I suspect it will calm down because it is hurting a lot of people
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