저자: JimRogers/진행자Drew · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 현재 현금(미국달러, 머니마켓펀드) 비중이 높고 대폭락 가능성을 경계하지만, 아직 공매도는 하지 않는다고 말함. [금리] 현재 채권 수익률이 5%대로 높아 현금을 머니마켓에 두고 있으며, 본인은 채권에 확신이 없음. 1980년 국채 금리 21% 사례를 들어 금리가 5% 이상으로 더 오를 수 있으며 생전에 5% 이상 고금리를 볼 것으로 예상함. [안전자산] '안전한 피난처(safe haven)'는 없다고 봄. 다만 국제통화인 미국달러를 현재 가장 나은 대안으로 보유 중. [공매도·시장 전망] 시장이 고평가됐다는 의견이 많지만 아직 공매도하지 않음. 시장 막판에 과열(블로우오프)이 나올 수 있어 기다리는 중이며, 'Magnificent 7' 종목이 그 신호일 수 있다고 언급. 다만 과열이 보이지 않아 게을러서 못 보는 것일 수도 있다고 함. [과거 비교] 닷컴 버블 당시 월스트리트저널이 'new economy'를 대문자로 쓸 정도로 광기가 있었으나, 현재는 그 정도 광기는 보이지 않는다고 평가. 광기가 나타나면 마지막 상승(블로우오프)이 올 수 있음. [타이밍] 본인은 시장 타이밍을 맞추지 못한다고 인정. 언론이 다시 new economy를 쓰기 시작하면 막바지 신호로 볼 수 있다고 함. [초보 투자자 조언] 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고, 핫팁을 듣지 말 것. 지루하게 투자하라는 조언. [2024 전망] 2024년 미국 대선이 열린다는 점 외에는 확신하는 예측이 많지 않다고 밝힘. 역사상 가장 긴 강세장이 계속될 수 있으니 걱정하고 준비하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
hello everyone I hope you are all having a great week my name is Drew the host of never behind today I will be sharing the second half of the interview with Jim Rogers which will be covering whether Jim invests in high yield bonds or if not what the biggest portion of his investment is in also he'll be sharing how much percent of his asset is in cash and the possibility of a melt up and also whether he is showing the market or not and what sign he is keeping an eye on for confirmation of a market crash getting really close I'm pretty sure that this interview will be very helpful for your personal investment and highly recommend that you watch both part one and part two of this interview I will be removing all the ads that I have access to so that it doesn't interrupt with the interview now before we get into the interview I just wanted to share that Mumu is having a great promotion giving out 15 free stocks for free which I think no one should miss so if you want to receive 15 free stocks make sure you click the link in the description below I have also started a Discord that is 100% free and half grade investors regarding stocks options swing trading chart analysis and even cryptocurrencies sharing their IDE ideas and opportunities for Investments every day so if you are interested in being a part of the community please click the link Discord in the description below since you said you were out of a major part of your assets or stocks since the bond yields are over like 5% these days with a cash do you park your money into the high yield bonds to take advantage of that interest rate or do you not personally buy any bonds for your Investments it is US dollars at the moment it is in Money Market funds essentially because that's the easy way for me I'm not positive on bonds you know in 1980 when we had a problem like this before interest rates on treasury bills were 21% that's not a typo 21% in in 1980 uh coming out of the aong inflationary bubble so interest rates can go much much higher you said they're high well 5% was high once upon a time but in the last few decades the world has learned to have much higher interest rates and we will have them again so you are anticipating that the interest rate on the bonds might go a lot higher than 5% in the near future well I don't know what the near future how you define that but yes I expect to see High bonds interest rates over 5% yes In Our Lifetime and I'm older than you most of our life time then another question that I have is for people who might want to prepare for a crash or in a market like this where would you think a safe haven would be for Investments and personally I would love to hear where you might be keeping an eye on to invest in in a situation like the one that we have with high inflation and very unstable or still has some issues I don't ever use the word safe when I'm talking about Investments because they ain't there's no such thing as a safe haven cuz I have never found a safe haven I wish I could wouldn't it be wonderful if we could find something well we never had to worry about losing money at the moment I told you I have a lot of US Dollars partly because it is the world's International currency and most people you know when there's turmoil they think that the US dollar for historic reasons is the safe haven I have US Dollars too partly because of that yes I own cash I would like to find something else but that's the best thing right now A lot of people do think that the market is overvalued with the economic situation and they are saying that a market crash has to come or reset has to come but personally then would you be you know shorting the market in any way at this point if you see a market crash comeing soon I am not shorting at the moment and that's parti because often near the end you have a blowoff in markets and I don't think we've had a big blowoff or maybe these magic seven stocks are the blowoff the sign of a blowoff but often there is a blowoff at the end when everybody says Ah this is going to go on forever and they all jump in so I have not shorted yet because maybe there's going to be a blowoff so I guess that's what happened in the Doom the Melt up happened before the crashes came in you're saying that we might have a possibility of another meltos you're not you're being very careful with shorting the market well we have often had blowoff just because we've often has them doesn't mean we're going to have them again but it is a fact of Market history that there's often a a period towards the end when things get hysterical I don't think we've seen that if we have seen it I've missed it you know I'm not shorting yet based on your experiencing the Doom bubble in the uh financial crisis before the actual market crash came came did you have the similar Vibe or feeling like the one that we have where there's so much issues in the economy but rationally there should be a crash but if you see the market it's going the opposite way and as you said there were melt UPS before these uh crashes people saying everything's okay but do you feel that similar vibe in the market these days well end of the do bubbles everybody knew this was going to go on forever The Wall Street Journal started public in in capital letters the term new economy even the Wall Street Journal was so convinced that things were different and they they wrote whenever they wrote about the economy they capitalized new economy I mean they don't do it anymore when the bubble when it collapsed they stopped capitalizing new economy but it we got the hysteria got to that level that everybody knew this was going to go on forever I don't quite see that much hysteria now uh it's developing it might be coming and if it does come we will have the blowoff that last shot where everything goes up and everybody's jumping into the market I don't see that much hysteria yet maybe it's there I'm just too lazy to see it would there be a sign that you keep an eye on that you're convinced that we're finally at the stage where we're having a crash where the market is heading to a cliff or downturn well the market will tell me I I guess I I hope I will sense the Hysteria we just discussed but I I promise you I I won't get the timing right you know I'll I'll miss it whenever all start shorting the market will go up even more it'll say ah we finally sucked Rogers in now we can go higher no I I wish I knew how to be a perfect Market timer but I don't I think finally for you know investors that haven't been in the market that long and haven't experienced these major crashes what kind of advice would you give to to beginners on Stock Investing and how they approach the stocks that they want to invest in well let me just go back for a minute if we see the W Street Journal start capitalizing new economy again that will be a signal that will be a sign for all of us that things are it's getting very late in the day but the only way to survive the only way to be an investor whoever you are is to invest only in what you know I mean everybody knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or something they're things that people read about all the time if you want to be a successful investor good times or bad that's what you invest in don't listen to Hot Tips Hot Tips will ruin you now we all want to be rich this week including me I want to be rich this week too I'll settle for this month I want to be rich this month but listening to Hot Tips Andrew will ruin you if you want to be successful stay with what you know and don't listen to other people and hot chips now some people oh but that's boring you want to be successful Andrew be boring be boring you know when you go down to the bar on Saturday night everybody will say ah there's that boring guy be that boring guy and you'll be rich I wanted to thank you very much again for your time today and you know in 2024 I would love to follow up and you know see how the market does and we love to have another interview with you well one prediction I will make for you is we will have a 2024 2024 is coming I think we're also going to have in the US an election in 2024 that's a pretty safe safe prediction uh but there are not many other predictions that I feel too comfortable with going into the next year because we have had the longest bull market in American history it may go on forever never has so I would urge everybody to be worried and if they're worried they will do a lot of research and then they'll be prepared and if you're prepared you can live through just about anything and even Thrive no matter what happens so be worried and be prepared be worried and get prepared if you're not already thank you very much I think that's uh a great advice for everyone that's investing in watching this interview so again thank you very much Jim you know for your time thank you let's do it again next year if we have a next year okay all right we have a 2024 I'll see you again next year here okay all right thank you Jim thank you bye bye good luck all right
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