Bill Gross: On Why You Should Not Invest In Treasury Bonds

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빌 그로스는 미국 국채 대신 실질금리가 높고 재정이 비교적 건전한 non-US 국가 채권(독일, 캐나다, 멕시코, 브라질 등)과 이머징 자산을 선호한다고 밝힘 미국 실질금리는 인플레이션을 반영하면 마이너스 영역이라 투자자에게 불리하다고 설명. 미국 10년물 수익률은 약 1.5% 수준으로 매력이 낮음 달러 약세와 연준의 정책금리 동결(0.25% 수준) 전망을 근거로, 유로존 분트(약 1.25%), 캐나다, 브라질(실질 6~7%) 등 해외 채권이 더 매력적이라고 주장 멕시코는 마약·갱단 문제에도 불구하고 양의 실질금리와 준수한 재정 상태를 갖췄다고 평가 이머징 국가는 소비 섹터가 덜 발달해 레버리지와 금융화가 아직 초기 단계라서, 부채/GDP 증가 여력과 성장 전망이 결합돼 안전하게 레버리지를 일으킬 수 있다고 봄. 중국은 투자가 GDP의 약 55~60%, 소비는 30~35%로 구조적 불균형이 있다고 언급 이 관점은 향후 3~5년 시계의 장기 전략(연간 세컨더리 포럼 기준)이며, 주식·채권 모두 해당 국가에 강세 입장 이머징 자산 편입은 과거에는 위험해서 코어 포트폴리오에 넣기 어려웠지만 지금은 전략적으로 고려할 만하다는 입장

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01. can you just give us a thumbnail thought about what some of the other sectors are that you've been more bullish on in the last several months that maybe we're not as heavily weighted in the phone before of course I'm talking about the e/m and sovereigns so forth maybe you could just walk us like we're looking for countries yeah with cleaner dirty shirts and with better balance sheets and with basically higher real interest rates in the United States after inflation interest rates are in the negative category by the way you you receive less after inflation is taken into consideration than what you started with and so we want a country with a decently clean balance sheet and growth prospects which offers something higher in terms of real interest rates inflation adjusted that occurs in countries like Germany or Canada or or even Mexico by the way Mexico offers at least a positive real rate of interest with a decent balance sheet despite the problems that they've got with drugs and gangs and so on but there are countries around the world which have relatively liquid bond markets that offer a more attractive real rate of interest compared to the United States and in addition the you know it's important to think about how these bonds are denominated from the standpoint of currency the dollar has not done well and you know if the Fed continues to do what it's done in terms of keeping that policy rate at 25 basis points which I think they will then you know it's certainly much more attractive to get one and a quarter percent in Euro land with a German bund or to get a higher yield in Canada or strikingly in Brazil to get a six or seven percent real interest rates compared to dollar alternative so investors simply have to look for other choices if in fact the the yield and the potential return from US Treasuries as typifies by that average yield at close to one-and-a-half percent you know continues to to exist sort of one last issue on there too about us I think for a lot of folks this is as you've described of course something of a paradigm shift in the sense of you've got countries today you mentioned Brazil Mexico that are taking places in a in a very good core portfolio that maybe five or ten years ago would not have because of the risk factors and can you just give a little bit more of a thumbnail about obviously you've mentioned you've mentioned debt to GDP as an example but a thumbnail about what makes you more comfortable allocating assets to countries and so forth and markets that people maybe have to get a little more used to and seeing in a core fund right that that comes for our secular forums which we have every year and really projects for the next three to five years in terms of a time frame but you know we are we are bullish from the standpoint of equities and bonds on countries which have relatively underdeveloped consumer sectors and it's easy to envision in China China investment as a percentage of GDP is close to fifty five to sixty percent whereas consumption is you know at thirty to thirty five percent it's just flipped here in the United States and so these countries Brazil a little more advanced in numbers to towards the United States but these countries have basically underdeveloped consumer sectors which haven't been subject to leveraging of credit and the financialization of their economies and therefore whereas in the United States and developed countries this delivering because of too much debt is taking place in these countries you know they stand a good chance of of levering and levering safely because they start with such a low level of debt to begin with so it's really a growth prospect and it's a it's a debt to GDP prospecting combination which says Eric that that yes you know we're quite aware of the history of Brazil and we're quite aware of when you take money out of the United States that it's it's not the old safe haven that were simply used to by putting our money in the bank at the corner but on the other hand you know the world is changing its globalizing and other countries are advancing more rapidly than the United States and it's really a theme and an assumption that this time to a certain extent it will be different well great I think I need to let you go for the rest of the conference but thank you so much thankfully appreciate nice to be here thank you for Morningstar I'm Eric Jacobson thank you