원문 보기
Now that Nvidia earnings are out of the way, is the AI trade about to take its next leg higher? Let's ask Tom Lee. He's Fundstrat's head of research. Welcome back. So, so how do you assess this now? We've We've cleared the way, right? All the AI stuff's now out of the way. We're looking at yields, we're looking at oil, we're looking at the Middle East, but how do you feel about this market when you just heard Chris Harvey at the top of our show saying we're going to have an everything rally that's going to take us past 8,000 by the end of the year.
Yeah, Scott. Yeah, I I think the market is pretty healthy. Um it showed resilience in the face of higher oil, higher yields. But I also think the US is pretty unique because we do have a structural driver for the economy, which is not only is the US the producer of AI, but we are also uh relatively energy independent and that's been exposed by this war.
And the consumer's in pretty good shape. So, I mean, I I I think there is a pretty good runway. So, I'd agree with the idea that stocks compared to the start of this year have more upside into year-end. We've got a few things we have to work through as we get later through the year, but I think for now the fundamentals are healthy and that's supported by earnings.
I don't know I don't know what shape the consumer's in to be honest with you. I mean, I understand the K-shaped economy, obviously. Top of the K is better than the bottom of the K in terms of their durability to keep spending. But you listen to Walmart, which was pretty cautious, and you're like, what is the real state of the consumer?
And if oil prices remain elevated for too long, is that the thing that wrecks the story? Uh Scott, yeah, it is in a in a way it is K-shaped because if I had to say, "Okay, what are the things that are sort of balance and things moving the consumer?" Of course, we know that it's higher gasoline, higher food, and of course, there's going to be a a shortage of some petroleum
And dad, what have we learned from SpaceX's IPO? A whole lot. I've spent so much time working on this thing for months leading up to the deal, and we wrote a big report about the the how the company works and everything. But the market dynamics are pretty unique in this deal. Um we're going to publish a study this week uh that's going to show that that the typical IPO, the last 100 IPOs or so of any size, going back almost a year, typically offer about 21% of their shares out in the float.
SpaceX offered just 4%, 4.3% for those of you keeping the score at home. So, what that tells us is that they really wanted to juice the stock. Then they also had the benefit of the indexes, many of them having uh being compelled to buy the stock in the aftermarket if they couldn't get allocations. What that meant was a lot of buyers.
And uh they the fact that they've been able to hold price in such an expensive deal by any metric, you know, over 100 times earnings or or 100 times revenues earnings, God forbid, but just 100 times revenues, uh the fact that they've held price at all is kind of a miracle. I think it speaks more to the market dynamics than just the company dynamics.
Yeah, and given those market dynamics, Tory, do you think it's changed the narrative for future IPOs? It makes you wonder why a company would offer more. Yeah. Right? If if especially if if the rules around lockups are going to change, too. The other thing we've got happening with SpaceX is they're Well, two things.
Uh they've got their their insiders are going to be able to sell a lot easier than we've ever ever seen before. Goldman Sachs has released uh in SpaceX, in fact, has released the people that were held up normally in lockup. It takes 6 months for insiders to sell. What we see happening with SpaceX is insiders are going to be able to sell right after the the quarterly earnings report and in big piles right after that.
Uh point of comparison, they offered 555 million shares, 555 million 555,555 55,000. Yes, whatever. Lots of fives. Um they're going to offer over a billion two shares before for 6 months of the lockup is over. So, a lot more shares are coming to market pretty soon. Mhm. And Corey, as we look at what's upcoming here, we have to talk about Anthropic.
And you made an argument in the notes that you sent over that Anthropic could become the most most important debut in the AI era. So, what makes Anthropic different from other high-profile tech debuts? Look, by a lot of measures, it is the number one AI company out there. I mean, you can want to make an argument that the semiconductor company Nvidia is a AI company.
Sure, but it was a Bitcoin mining company only a few years ago before that was a graphic processor unit for video games for for decades. So, you know, as far as a pure large language model being offered and being used and from what we hear having achieved some profitability, this is the the biggest company out there.
It is the standard by which everyone else including Chat GPT and Open AI are measured. You know, um X-SpaceX is so many things, but there's a narrative for example that SpaceX has their XAI unit and that's AI. It's not. Their revenue was principal revenue in the last year Twitter in their AI unit. So, this is a pure play AI company.
It is growing at an incredible pace. It is the standard like I said where I'm usually in Silicon Valley. That is what everyone is talking about is using Claude code, using Anthropic and and that is a AI offering stock offering. It is going to be, you know, the best of breed out there. And I guess what's unique about it is that US investors haven't really had exposure to a pure play like that as you say like the Chinese have.
I mean, they've had a lot more experience with some of the more domestic pure play AI LLM type companies which have gone absolutely bonkers over there. I'm just wondering, we saw the tide sort of coming out pre-SpaceX IPO. I mean, obviously sucking a lot of juice and rotation of capital out of, you know, the momentum trades out of areas like Bitcoin sort of risky parts of the market to, you know, to find capital to fuel that.
Do we see a similar scenario do you think with an answer to I was talking to some traders here at the New York Stock Exchange about this very topic. That's where you go to talk to traders, right? And I think that one of the things that we saw is a lot of the names that I cover, you know, I've been I've sat in this chair and talked about photo
While Nvidia long-term story may be stronger than ever, while Micron dominated the headlines, Nvidia quietly received another mess major confirmation. Because every dollar flowing into the memory, power, infrastructure, networking, and the data centers ultimately point back to the one company and that is Nvidia.
Nvidia isn't losing the AI race. One of the biggest concern about among the investors today is competition. Amazon has tranium, Google has TPUs, and Microsoft is designing custom AI chips. AMD continue improving its accelerator lineup and even Qualcomm and Intel are expanding into the AI. At first glance, that sound like bad news for Nvidia, but many analysts argue the opposite.
The AI market is expanding so rapidly that the multiple winners can sit sit situation. This isn't a winner take all the industry. It's an industry where the demand is growing faster than the supply. Market share isn't everything. Imagine Nvidia market share fall from 90% to 70%. Many investors immediately view that as a negative.
What What if the total AI market infra AI infrastructure market become five time larger? Even with a smaller percentage, Nvidia could still generate sustainably more revenue than it does today. That's why professional investors increasingly focus on the size of the market, not just Nvidia's share of it.
AI spending is becoming essential. Few years ago, artificial intelligence was viewed as experimental. Today it's becoming a mission critical. Companies are no longer asking, "Should we invest in AI?" They are asking, "How quickly can we deploy it?" That shift completely changed the investment landscape.
Instead of optional spending, AI infrastructure becoming strategic necessary. The infrastructure build out is far from the finished. Building an AI data center isn't like installing new software. It's required thousands of GPUs, advanced networking, massive amount of high bandwidth memory, liquid cooling systems, reliable electricity, new substation, and entirely a new power infrastructure.
These projects require years to complete. That's why many analysts believe today capital spending isn't temporary. It's beginning of a long infrastructure cycle. Short-term volatility doesn't change the long-term thesis. Market rarely move in a straight line. There will be a correction, profit taking, competition headlines, regulatory and the period where investors questions AI spending, but those even don't automatically change the underlying fundamentals.
As long as compute demand continue exceeding the available supply, the companies providing that infrastructure remain in powerful position. The biggest mistake investors can make is focus only on daily stock prices. The real story is happening under them. The AI models are becoming more powerful, enterprises are adopting AI faster, governments are investing in sovereign infrastructure, data centers continue expanding worldwide, and every one of those trends increase demand for compute.
And every increase in compute demand is strengthening the long-term outlook for companies building the foundation of critical intelligence. That's why many analysts continue to believe we are still in the early chapter of the world's largest technology investment cycle in the history.
댓글 0