저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 충전 인프라가 머스크의 다음 수익화 단계이며, 기술주는 하반기에 급등할 것이라는 낙관론. 충전 인프라 수익화: 연간 100~200억 달러 규모(보수적 추정 100억, 후반부엔 200억 가능), 2020년대 말 기준. 슈퍼차저 이후 배터리, FSD/AI로 확장. 애플 서비스처럼 테슬라 생태계의 수익화 초기 단계이며, GM 등 타사도 테슬라 충전망 사용. 가격 인하 전략: 머스크가 이익보다 성장을 우선하는 전략을 택했고 이는 중국 등에서 성과. 인하의 95~96%는 미국 시장. 마진은 판매량을 위해 희생 중이며 향후 1~2분기 저점 후 내년에 반등 전망. 테슬라 주가: 이번 주 10% 상승, 한 달간 10% 하락. 나스닥 조정 시 테슬라도 취약할 수 있다는 질문에 Ives는 테슬라를 자동차사가 아닌 파괴적 기술기업으로 보며 하반기 기술주 랠리를 전망. 기술주 전망: 하반기 기술주 급등 가능성, 1995년 같은 국면이며 1999~2000년 버블이 아니라고 주장. 인공지능 관련 1조 달러 규모 지출이 기술 생태계 전반에 이어질 것. 엔비디아 등 이미 많이 오른 종목에 대해 조정은 '하프타임'이며 향후 2~3년 영향이 있다고 강조. 리스크: 금리 인상은 역풍이나 밸류에이션 때문에 숨기보다 신규 기술 강세장으로 봄. 과열 우려에 대해 Ives는 기업 실적(2024~2025년 가속 성장)이 밸류에이션을 정당화할 것이라고 응답. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 충전 수익화 전망 긍정, 하반기 기술주 상승 전망 긍정.
다듬은 글
to write this story today yeah I was really putting the paper and really doing the mod S four to five we just mean for GM others the 313 area code going to Tesla now trying to model it out I mean and I think for investors it's very helpful we think conservatively 10 to 20 billion per year I think it's probably on the latter part by the end of the decade I think it's significant this is the next stage of monetization for the Tesla ecosystem yeah how do you get to those numbers and that's really that's really going on our and we have a whole model but now the percent of overall EVS that ultimately are going to be using the charging stations what they're going to be charging per kilowatt hour and then the important things guys that you know most of the Bears will say well today everyone just charges at home or they charge their office but it's also looking at now down the road how many going to be using these charging stations and when you look right now they're going to be the only game in town that's why you have gm4 and others go into a Tesla and I think today it's supercharger charger next is going to be batteries and then eventually fsdai who speaks to our thesis similar to Apple on the services side this is just the early stages of muscatessen monetizing where are we on the road map of price Cuts in terms of Tesla which which Elon Musk is clearly clearly um moved to put you know growth ahead of profitability yeah and I think that's been the right Pokemon and I think it's paid off significantly especially in China I think now of 95 96 of those cuts we think in the rear of the America and I think you saw maybe some overreaction last week and you definitely seen a rebound there's any more investors are recognizing that but right now margins suffering at the cost of units now I think that troughs over the next quarter or two and so it's a rebound into next year and that's the yin yang that they're going to strike But ultimately it continues to be Tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent in terms of overall EVS I think that's becoming queer and clearer so in terms of the stock it's up 10 this week it's down 10 over a month um and the reason you know I'm trying to get the correlation here between it and the NASDAQ if the NASDAQ continues to to have some trouble and and Tech big Tech in general pulls back this stock is going to be susceptible to that as well don't don't you think of course yeah I mean well we continue to view test it's a disruptive technology company not not an autoplayer right but I it's our view going the second half of the year I think tech stocks rip High I mean it's might be that the new tech full Market has already begun I think growth is going to exceed Street expectations and I think we were talking with Nvidia that's just the application it's what we're going to see with this trillion dollar tidal wave of spend over the coming years for players across the tech ecosystem I know but man these stocks are already up like five years worth in six eight months I mean there are even with the pullback we've seen a lot of these stocks are up minimum 30 or 35 percent we we can't just continue to suggest that they're going to in your words rip higher to to no end are we I think ultimately numbers especially going to next year accelerated 15 20 Beyond Where the streets model and I think this is a 1995 moment not in 1999 2000 more I think star the internet and I think we are seeing the biggest transformation to Tactical agency in 30 years and that's that our view across the board this is just a pause it's half time of this Super Bowl rally that we're going to see impact going into next two to three years I know but some at some point the air gets a little thin no I mean look at Nvidia I mean I know it's not you don't cover it specifically like you do Apple which people know but you know it's up 200 percent this year it was up 50 percent in three months and now it's it's having its pause pull back whatever you're gonna characterize that as I mean what do you want these stocks to go up 60 and 70 percent for the year I mean my view is first of all way over corrected last year I mean that's our opinion and I think now investors more and more going to 2024 2025 looking at some a cycle that we haven't seen in 30 years now of course rates of jaf the professor that's clearly going to be a headwind but when I looked across pack when I look across software cyber security chips I I view this as a time where we view it as a star of a new tech bull market not the time where we're hiding because of valuations I think these stocks throw into their valuations over the coming years okay we'll leave it there Dan knives thank you I appreciate it very much we'll see you soon thank you all right up next raising the red flag sycamore tree capital's Mark okada is still racing for a recession he is flagging though alternative opportunities for your money amid this uncertainty joins me after the break
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