저자: Adam · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 쉬프의 '주택시장 붕괴' 경고 기사를 비판하며, 현재는 2005~2008년 같은 폭락이 아니라 매수·매도 힘의 균형이 매도자 우위에서 매수자 우위로 옮겨가는 조정 국면이라고 주장. 대출 금리가 낮은 기존 주택 보유자가 많아 매도 압박이 약하고, 거래 취소율(14.5%)과 거래량 감소는 협상력 이동의 결과이며 가격 급락은 아니라고 봄. 실업률·수출입 등 거시 지표는 양호하다고 언급. 다만 일부 지역 차압 증가 가능성은 인정하고, 장기적으로는 가격 하락 주기를 예상.
다듬은 글
Welcome to the Real Estate Brief. I'm Adam. Today we're going to be cutting through the noise. We're going to look and we're going to get to the truth in the news, look at the data, and I'm going to give you some of my own observations and where I believe that you can find opportunity. So, if you're ready to gain your real estate edge, let's dive into our first story, and boy is it a story, okay?
It's a story because it's a typical kind of headline-gripping story, right? And here's the title. Let me go ahead and share my screen, and here's what it says, okay? It says, "Peter Schiff sees disaster waiting to happen." Look at that. In housing market as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares tumble. Says home prices will have to implode.
Now, a lot of adjectives in there to describe what's going on in the housing market. And here is the thing, okay? And I get it. I understand why headlines run this way. Every single statement inside of that headline has to be quantified by something that's true, okay? So, what does it mean by a disaster is waiting to happen?
What is the disaster? How extreme of a disaster are we talking about? What Okay, shares tumble. What does that actually mean, right? And then implode. What does that mean? Cuz like when you when you hear these words, you think of something very drastically happening, right? This is typical clickbait in headlines because if you can read that, it leads you to then read the rest of the article.
We all know this to be true. Here's the thing is it when I when I read that and I start thinking of these things. If you've been in If you've been alive and you were old enough to be in the market to buy and sell real estate back in 2005, 2006, and you lived through that, okay? When you read headlines like this, you tend your mind tends to go straight into that era, okay?
That's where your mind goes because these type of words trigger the worst kind of thought that you could have about the economy. So, that's where I go. When I when I hear these type of things, I go all the way back to then. That's when I got into real estate, and that's what I experienced. Well, here's the thing, is that's not where we are.
Are things going to change, and is there a pivot going on? Yes, we've talked about it many, many times. Yes, that's what's going to happen, just like it always does. It rises and follow follows its little arc, right? That's what the real estate debt market does. That's what the economy does as a whole.
It always has. It's not necessarily going to implode, though. Things are changing. Now, there are going to be effects. So, let's go ahead and get into this, and what are the effects that we might be seeing, okay? Economist Peter Schiff warned that falling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares signal a potential housing market crisis.
Predicting home prices will have to fall as affordability pressures weigh on buyers. Now, is that a better? Potential. Potential. That's better. And this is true. This is supply and demand at its basic form, right? Obviously, if homes are more expensive to buy, interest rates are higher, living expenses are higher, fuel costs are higher, what needs to change?
Oh, well, maybe the purchasing power of the buyer is not as strong, therefore prices need to come down. Is that an implosion, right? Is that an implosion? Or is that a softening or a change in the market, tipping from a seller's market over to a buyer's market, right? And in a In a post on X on Friday, Schiff it said Fannie Mae shares had fallen 23% and Freddie Mac shares had dropped 21% in three trade trading days.
He shared a video from his YouTube podcast, where he discussed the housing market and warned that falling home prices could trigger a broader crisis. Now, there's probably some truth to this, right? You know, understanding that real estate affects a lot of industries. No No surprise there. And it could have a drastic effect across multiple things.
But again, how bad? Like what does this look like? Schiff warns home prices must fall. I don't disagree with that. I 100% agree that they must, right? Schiff said in his podcast that both stocks were about 80% below their highs from the previous year. He called the housing market a disaster waiting to happen.
Predicting that home prices would have to implode. He argued that unsold home inventory was building because sellers remained reluctant to lower asking prices while buyers could not afford homes at current prices because mortgage rates were too high. Now, why is that? Right? Why would you think that the the sellers themselves are not so ready to lower their prices, right?
If they're desperate to sell, okay, if you go back, we use this this correlation of 2006 and 2008, right? When things were Well, actually imploding. What was happening then is people were massively upside down on their on their loans, okay? They had arm loans that were coming due. The The people that were bought homes were not even qualified to buy homes cuz the subprime lending, you know, those are things that was triggering here.
It's not the same makeup now. If you were to really look at this, when you were to look at this and you were look at the data, what we have here is you have people that have mortgages with very low interest rates. Okay? With a market that has a higher interest rate. They are not as desperate to sell.
They don't feel the pressure to sell. So, they would rather wait. Now, at some point, that comes to the point where the the seller that needs to move is going to eventually just set accept the terms and say, "You know what? I'm not going to get as much equity for my house as I thought." And then those prices will start coming down.
That's what I would see happening because you do not have a lot of people underwater in their homes. You don't have a lot of people that can't afford their homes. You've got people that just look at it and say, "Well, you know what? I really don't have to sell right now because I've got a good mortgage." Right?
That's kind of the makeup we have. Tracy, the year I began my real estate career, I do remember, 2005. Yeah, hey, all right. There you go. You and I got in at the same time, Tracy. All right. Eventually something has to give, Schiff said, arguing that sellers would have to cut prices because buyers could not afford to pay more or qualify for larger mortgages.
Yes. He warned that falling home prices could wipe out homeowners' equity, leaving some borrowers owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Schiff also said some homeowners could lose the incentive to keep making mortgage payments if they ended up with the negative equity, even if they had fixed mortgage rates of 3% or 4%.
The interesting thing about this is you know, come on, Peter. Like, I think we're being a little bit um clickbaity here. You know, personally, I think you're being a little clickbaity because it's just not the same. Like, the amount of equity that most sellers have, they're sitting on a lot of equity.
So, what the easier play here would be for me just to sit back and wait a little bit, ride this out, even if my home goes down in value a little bit, so is the other home that I'm going to be buying. The question is not is can I afford the house I'm in? Are there some people in underwater? Are there some people that don't have enough equity?
Of course. And it will Could we see some foreclosures and things like that pick up? Absolutely. But the idea that we're going to have this big issue here doesn't really follow with where people are currently sitting with their homes. Like, if I was to do a poll right now and it was asked a a few thousand homeowners, I would ask them, like, can you afford your house right now?
I guarantee a majority of them say yes, right? A majority of them are still paying their bills. We're not seeing that. So, again, I I just Could this happen? Well, yeah, many circumstances could lead us in that direction, and maybe he sees something I don't see. I don't want to sit here and say that I've got it all figured out.
Maybe he's got something I just don't see. But again, my experience with talking to people, seeing the environment, talking to lenders, looking at loans, you know, looking at what's selling, there's a pivot kind of happening. There's a little bit of a change taking place. Um there is a assessment of price that is happening, but we're not seeing that the homes just tank.
We're not seeing something just drastically drop in value. That's not really what we're seeing here. And because again, you know, we're looking at a 1% point above what it was, you know, last year, and people still bought. So, what are we looking at? $200 something more a month per payment? So, yeah, they're going to buy a maybe a smaller house or less expensive home, uh but not drastic.
Affordability woes push buyers to the brink. Affordability pressures are already showing up in housing market activity. In September, 14.5% of home purchase agreements fell through, the highest rate for any September on record. Pending home sales also dropped 4% month-over-month, while mortgage rates climbed above 7% by the end of the month.
Okay. See, this is where like if you just monitor data, if you just look at data, you you would you would you would look at that and say, "Wow, there's there's a problem here." And there is, there's more of an adjustment happening here. But let's break this down, right? So, in September, 14.5% of home purchase agreements fell through.
Why do you think that is? You guys are agents. What's causing deals to fall through? You know, th- this is where it gets interesting because when the market begins to shift into the buyer side of things, when anytime the market shifts back over to the buyer's control, the buyer themselves are in control.
It's not that the buyer can't afford the house always. That percentage doesn't have anything to do with that ability for that buyer to buy. What that means is that there's more homes on the market that the seller gets to choose from, and therefore they're scrutinize everything that the seller is wanting them to do.
So, like if if I was to go into buy a house, let's just yeah, hypothetically, let's say I I went out and I bought a house, okay? I've got my contingencies. I got an inspection I'm going to do. In a buyer's market, when I have the inspections done, and I don't feel the pressure to have to go all the way towards closing on this home, I scrutinize that home inspection a whole lot more, don't I?
I take more time and I ask for more concessions from the seller on the repairs of that home. If I'm writing out my offer, I also don't have to worry about making myself out to be the best possible buyers possible because there's a bid war going on. I actually start asking the seller to give me more.
I start saying I need closing costs. I want buy downs. I want certain things back to me. It's a buyer's market. I'm the commodity here, right? So, I'm going in and I'm negotiating this. So, why would deals fall through more? Well, there's more options out there for buyers. So, if they hit an opposition, the seller doesn't want to work with them, and doesn't want to make the repairs, guess what?
They walk away. So, that number has nothing to do with affordability. That number has everything to do with the options available to a buyer. This is a typical pivot switch over from seller market to buyer market. Yeah. I mean, just follow the the trends and the history of this. Right? Then the highest rate for any September on record, pending home sales also dropped 4%.
This is what happens in a market correction. 4% is not a crash. It's not an implosion. It's It's a a market correction. It's It's the market is basically saying like, "Look, the buyers are like, there's a lot of options out there. I'm not in any hurry. If you want me, what you got for me? Come and offer me something." You want me to buy your house?
You better make me want to buy your house. That's what that means, right? So, it's just a It's just a pivot. And yeah, mortgage rates have climbed, but what How much how much money difference are we talking about here? What kind of adjustment on a on a average selling price we have to have to meet up the difference of a 1% interest rate increase on a mortgage?
What's that number? If the average selling price is what? 360? I think it's like $222. Okay, so how much more does it need to come down? What? 340? That's not an implosion. Right? It's not an implosion. All right. Uh Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economic research, said the imbalance between buyers and sellers has has also widened, giving buyers more negotiating power over prices, repairs, closing costs.
Yes. Slower sales could cause more home prices to flatten or fall, particularly if sellers become more willing to make concessions. Yes. Uh In some ways, Peter, you wrote this book. You wrote this book. You you Uh there's actually a whole section this book talking about this very nature of this thing.
All right. Could um falling home prices trigger a bigger crisis? Leo Peraza, CEO of eXp Realty, has described the outlook as a softer market with transaction volumes under pressure, while rejecting comparisons with the Great Recession. 100% agree with that statement. I reject I do. I would agree with him.
There This is not the Great Recession. It's not the same. Peraza pointed to regional differences in home price trends and said that the current slowdown is more about fewer transactions than a broad collapse in prices. That's what you truly see. Like when you really look at the data and you understand like supply and demand, that's what we're looking at.
It doesn't mean something couldn't happen to trigger a collapse. Like right like I mean, right now, he could be right not because of his numbers or his assumptions. It could be just that other factors haven't come into play yet that he gets lucky, right? But if I was to just stop and would just look at the market data itself from all angles, understanding the buyer motivators, the seller motivators, and where they meet, I wouldn't look at this and be like, anything's really that alarming to me.
Like, I I just look at it and be like, well, I mean, there's a pivot going on. We kind of got to kind of got to adjust to what the market's doing, right? I mean, we got a little bit of inflation across multiple markets. But at the same time, the job market's pretty good. Unemployment rate still pretty low.
Um export and import still pretty high. You know, so these are major factors that would be, you know, contributing to if we're going to implode or not, right? So, again, I like Peter Schiff. I'm not knocking him. I mean, he he he can check out his YouTube. You can watch him. He's He's very generous on a lot of things.
It's just on this one, it's like, man, what are we doing here? Like, it it again, using words like that, just like Leo did there on his final statement, he talked about how it compared to the Great Recession. Now, to be fair, now, I didn't watch Peter's video, but to be fair, that article said nothing about the recession, right?
It didn't It didn't make that correlation itself. But guess what those kind of words did? It implied. Right? It It led anybody. And that's what I said at the very beginning. It's like, if you were in this industry in 2005 to 2008 at all, or if you were buying and selling homes during that time, when you hear words like that, your mind will 100% go there.
So, that's why using certain words and headlines is clickbait. That's how it works. Let's go If I can use any kind of words to trigger a response in you to get you to read my article that is based upon something that was like the worst that had ever happened. If I can make any kind of correlation to that, I'm going to get more eyes.
And I feel like that's what Peter's done with his video. I need to go back and watch the video. I think I'll do that today. Uh just out of curiosity to see how he actually framed this because some maybe the Yahoo Finance and the reporter there is getting things off. So, we'll just we'll just see. We probably need to do our due diligence.
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