저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 멍거는 단순하지만 규율 있는 가치투자 원칙과 지속적 학습의 중요성을 강조하며, 특정 종목·지수의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않았다. 투자 원칙: 이해 가능한 사업을 고르고, 지속 가능한 경쟁우위를 가진 기업이어야 하며, 경영진의 정직성과 재능이 중요하다고 말한다. 무한대의 가격도 가치가 없으니 안전마진이 있는 가격에 사야 한다고 강조한다. 계획과 사고방식: 거창한 마스터 플랜을 불신하고, 기회가 명확할 때 붙잡는 방식이 더 낫다고 본다. 자신의 견해가 틀렸을 때 기꺼이 바꾸는 태도가 필요하며, 반대 주장을 상대보다 더 잘 설명할 수 있을 때까지는 의견을 말할 자격이 없다는 '철의 처방'을 스스로 지킨다고 말한다. 가치 평가: 주식을 주식 수 곱하기 가격으로 전체 사업을 사는 관점에서 바라보며, 전체 사업을 살 때 합리적인 사람이 지불할 가격보다 낮은 가격에 개별 주식을 사는 것을 선호한다고 설명한다. 사례: 과거 Barron's 등을 50년간 읽으며 종목을 찾았고, 한 소형 자동차 부품사(쇼크 업소버 관련)의 정크본드·주식 투자로 큰 수익을 냈으나 일찍 매도했다고 회상한다. 코카콜라는 시장이 가치 대비 싸게 평가할 때 대량 매수했던 사례로 언급된다. 종목명은 자막 오인식으로 불분명하다. 학습과 조언: 키케로의 말을 인용해 역사와 여러 분야의 지식을 '정신적 격자(mental lattice)'로 체계화해야 한다고 강조한다. 버핏을 '학습하는 기계'로 칭찬하며, 꾸준한 학습이 장기 성과의 핵심이라고 말한다. 과도한 자기 과시를 자제하고 상사를 빛나게 하라는 조언도 한다. 리스크와 기타: 단기 쾌락이 장기적 파멸을 부르는 것처럼 투기적 광풍에 휩쓸리는 경제를 경계한다. 버크셔의 투자 포트폴리오 구성이 지배 지분 사업 중심으로 변화했음을 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
we have to deal on things that were capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage and then of course we would vastly prefer a management in place with a lot of integrity and talent and finally no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural vicissitudes of life that's a very simple set of ideas and the reason that our ideas have not spread faster is they're too simple the professional classes can't justify their existence if that's all I have to say it's all so obvious and so simple what would they have to do with the rest of the semester oh yeah you've always been opportunistic what does that mean well it's Carlyle he said the task of man is not to see what lies dimly in the distance but do the duty that lies clearly at hand and we are like Carlyle do you see any great duties at hand right now no but I think we've been pretty good grasping things our duty impelled us to grasp and it's worked way better than master planning I have a deep distrust of master planning people get to believing the plan because they created it so that it is the kind of propensity to disbelieve that by changing your previous conclusions and we're very good at that thank God I have what I call an iron prescription that helps me keep saying when i naturally drift toward preferring one ideology over another and that as i say i'm not entitled to have an opinion on this unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people do who are supporting I think only when I've reached that state am I qualified to speak now you can say that's a too much of an iron discipline it's not too much of an iron discipline isn't even that hard to do we have the mindset of the person that's buying the whole business at the price you would realize by multiplying the price we're paying by share by the number of outstanding shares and and we want the price for the whole business so calculated to look very attractive so we like buying individual shares at a price that's lower than we think a rational person would pay if he could buy the whole business so for 50 years you've continually read about these industries even though you have to stand for them yes I talked about patience I have read Barron's for 50 years in 50 years I found one that's not ever done being embarrassed other which I made about 80 million dollars almost no rich I took the 80 million dollars and gave it to lilo who turned it into so I have made four five hundred million dollars out of reading bed Varun's for 50 years and following me my idea now that doesn't help you very much does it I'm sorry but that's the way it really happened I didn't have a lot of ideas I didn't find them that easily but I did pounce on one which one was right huh which idea was that it was a little automotive supply company anyway it wasn't it was a cigar but is that K&W no no no this was never gotten the name I was but it was a little it was the mom rose shock absorber and all that stuff the stock was a dollar and the gentle bounces paid eleven three eighths percent were 35 when I bought the junk bonds they paid me the 35 percent they went right to 107 let me call you know who's and then they and the stock went from 1 to 40 but of course I sold my stock at 15 my advice to you is to learn sometimes to keep your light under a bushel one of my colleagues also uh number one is glass and law school a great success in life clerk for the Supreme Court etc but he knew a lot and he tended to show it as a very young lawyer and one day the senior partner he was working under called him in and said listen Chuck says I don't explain something to you this is your duty under any circumstances is to behave in such a way that the client thinks he's the smartest person in the world you've got a little any little energy or insight available after that use it to make your senior partner look like the smartest person in the world and only after you've satisfied those two obligation do you want your light to shine at all well that may have a very good advice for rising in a large firm it wasn't what I did I always evade the drift of my nature and other people didn't like it well I didn't need to be adored by everybody it was succeeding mightily on multiple fronts and it was cheap in relation to what was plainly going to happen that was a valuable insight there are times when even a company as big as coca-cola is too cheaply priced by the market considering what it's going to do for the shareholder and there are times when we can figure that out and there are times when we can't and the times when we can't figure it out we tend to go in heavily for many many months we were buying as much coca-cola as we could buy roughly a third of the volume trading every day for months so we were very aggressive in buying into coca-cola another idea and by the way when I talk about this multidisciplinary attitude I'm really following a very key idea of the greatest lawyer of antiquity Marcus tell us Cicero and Cicero is famous for saying a man who doesn't know what happened before he's born goes through life like a child that is a very correct idea of Cicero's and he's right to ridicule somebody so foolish is not to know what happened before he was born but if you generalize Cicero as I think one should there are all these other things that you should know in addition to history it doesn't help you just know them enough so you could prattle them back on an exam and get an A you have to learn these things in such a way their mental lattice work in your head and you automatically use them for the rest of your life if you do that I solemnly promise you that one day you'll be walking down the street and you look to your right and left you'll think my heavenly days I'm now one of the few most competent people of my whole age covert I think our business experience helps our investment judgment and vice versa and so I have no problem with that what's happened of course is the investment portfolio we used to have these meetings decades ago there would be more in common stock value in the portfolio submerge sure than there was in the market capitalization of the whole country the whole company and that went on year after year after year that is radically changed now most of the value is in controlled businesses and the investment portfolio is something that looks more like the normal portfolio of an insurance company it's a good thing sure sure we always said that what we liked best was owning a wonderful business outright and second best we liked good ideas and securities that has never changed the skill that got perjure through one decade would not have sufficed to get it through the next decade with the achievements made without Warren Buffett being a learning machine continuous learning machine the record would have been absolutely impossible the same is true at lower walks of life I constantly see people rise in life we're not the smartest sometimes not even the most diligent but they are learning machines they go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that habit help particularly when you have a long run ahead of you your life in the next three weeks would be more pleasant if you went on heroin but it would totally destroy you over the long pole and that's what an economy does when it allows itself to be seduced by the potential for an idiot boom into allowing all this gross immorality hidden this and this craziness to take over when I met Warren he immediately started telling me how much better his way of making a living was than mine and that I was too smart to stay in such a silly business's law practice when I could go into his business of running an investment partnership and it took me about two or three years to to realize he was right it makes ask Warren how he wants to be remembered he wants to be remembered as a teacher when the hell is saying that from the top of a company from a record like Warren's why wouldn't I like being associated with that ethos how do you want to be remembered well I have a little different twist I have less ambition than Warren at being a great teacher I am trying to I'm gonna eat my great-grandfather when he died die they said about him nobody and read the success so fairly won and wisely used it's a simple philosophy but wouldn't Wall Street have worked better if more people had tried to imitate my great grandfather Ingham
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