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palantir stock has collapsed in the last few days since their most recent earnings call and kathy wood has sold the dip big time i've spent the last couple days really digging into the business and the stock to try to answer one simple question why did kathy would sell pounds here and does that mean that we should too hey wait that's two questions your time is valuable so let's get right into it starting with arkhanvest and palantir over the last week kathy would sold about 60 of her palantir shares including massive sales out of rk and arc w the two funds that she had by far the most shares of pound tier in when you combine that sale with palantir's drop in price the stock dropped from arkhanvest's 19th biggest position overall to their 37th in a single day these are the kinds of sales that make me think that kathy wood will dump the stock entirely over the next week or so instead kathy would bought stocks like roku zoom uipath c limited roblox and shopify the thing all of these companies have in common is that they're much more pure play names and have also collapsed in price over this past week for example roku is down over thirty percent over the last five days roblox stock is down almost thirty percent zoom is down by another ten percent bringing it to almost eighty percent off its peak and shopify is down 20 in the last five days on and on it goes kathy wood often says that when all innovation stocks go on sale like they have been with the latest inflation news interest rate news and ukraine news she tends to concentrate down into her most pure play names been doing for the last six months is expanding the number of names in our portfolio and we do that as a bull market extends because in some ways it's a tax efficient strategy what we will do during a correction especially a severe correction we will sell names in which which are creating losses now because again we've bought them we've diversified and bought them more recently sell those names creating losses to buy our highest conviction names uh some of the names we've been moving into you'll notice some of the bigger biotech names and what we will do during and we we think of them as cash-like so we're using them as cash-like instruments in in some some way because we will move back into our pure play names uh if we get into a severe correction so we we use corrections toggling back and forth and so right now our flagship our flagship portfolio has roughly 52 names in it at the low point in the coronavirus last year it was as low as 33 i believe these sales don't make palantir a bad company or pound to your stock a bad stock it just means it doesn't fit in arkhanvest's niche strategy of investing in pure play innovation this is why i think arc invest is selling palantir if we look at arkanvest's latest stock commentary email from this morning we can get a little more insight while surpassing revenue expectations with 34 percent year-over-year growth thanks to success in u.s commercial palanti reported a significant deceleration in growth in the larger government division suggesting perhaps a change in government procurement behavior this is another situation where i don't agree with arc invest and i'll show you why in a few minutes for better or worse neither did other institutions at least at the end of the last quarter over the previous quarter eight of the top ten institutional holders of palantir bought millions of shares arcanvest was one of only two of the top ten institutions to be a net seller of pallentier stock let's talk about what's going on with the stock itself and then dive into the company pounce your stock is firmly in the young high-tech growth category it direct listed on the new york stock exchange less than two years ago at the start of quarter four of 2020.
the stock market right now is punishing every company that doesn't immediately crush insanely high expectations let me break that down for you when the market focuses on things like high inflation high interest rates and border conflicts time horizons shrink meaning people want returns on their investments sooner and with less risk as things get more expensive and unpredictable people want to know that their money isn't locked up for very long high growth companies are by definition long-term investments you're sacrificing profitability today for higher growth down the road on top of that rising interest rates make bonds look more attractive since they become higher yield when that happens risky stocks look even riskier since they now need to outperform better performing bonds rising interest rates also make it more expensive to borrow money any algorithm that sees negative incomes will assume a company is cash poor and these algorithms are responsible for half of all market trading volume especially in times of high volatility so this is really a perfect storm for stocks like palantir and palantir really couldn't afford to miss earnings in this kind of market let's dive into their earnings right now and talk a little bit about what actually happened and whether or not palantir is still a good investment as a result at a high level palantir's total revenue grew by 41 which is broken down to 47 on the government side and 34 on the commercial side by the way at the end of last year they guided for revenue growth in excess of 30 so they absolutely smashed their own revenue guidance for the year let's dig into these numbers a bit this is a pretty cool slide that i've never seen from palantir before according to capital iq there are only five software as a service companies that made over a billion dollars in revenue in the last year that have both higher year-over-year revenue growth and higher adjusted free cash flow margins than palantir take that with a grain of salt because that margin adjustment is for things like stock-based compensation which palantir is notorious for still palantir is a very high growth company when compared to its peers another really important slide to understand is that gotham palantir's platform focused on government work is nearing its full total addressable market in terms of capabilities they've expanded gotham over the years from helping the intelligence community to law enforcement and fraud to operational intelligence and logistics and then to ai at the edge at the same time foundry has been expanding from a data platform to analytics to a simulation engine and then digital twins they also specifically call out hyper auto which is one of the reasons i'm so interested in wijo and have been interviewing their ceo richard barlow the reason this slide is important to understand is because as palantir's capabilities expand so does the list of clients they can go after this is why i'm always harping on palantir's new markets like when they entered crypto palantir's total customer account grew by 71 percent in 2021 and palantir is proving to be very sticky what does very sticky actually mean it means that every customer they gain spends more and more money with palantir each year how much more money well in 2021 palutear's net dollar retention was 131 percent meaning palantir's existing customers from 2020 or before not only kept working with pound tier but spent 31 percent more money with them in 2021.
let's break these numbers down into the government and commercial side since arkhamvest's issue with palantir seem to be focused on their growth in government government revenue growth year over year was at 47 but it was heavily front loaded to the first quarter my sneaking suspicion on this is that it's because the government's fiscal year is october 1st to september 30th not january to december so if government agencies get their budgets in october and then need to start negotiating contracts after that palantir's deals might not actually sign until after january a 90-day turnaround for a government contract doesn't sound so crazy but what that does tell me is that more government agencies could be spending more of their budgets on palantir as soon as they get their budgets instead of waiting until later in the fiscal year overall government customer account was flat but they're clearly getting more work per customer their average trailing 12-month revenue per government customer has tripled over the last four years and was up 46 over the last year it seems like valencia is getting more money from the government earlier in the fiscal year this year than last year so i'm not really understanding arc invest stock commentary on the government procurement here now let's talk about palantir's commercial growth since that's where paluncher's massive total addressable market really is palantir's commercial revenue grew 34 for the year but the quarterly pattern is the exact opposite from the government side i think this is because private companies try to pay for as much of their next year's costs in december to lower their taxable income for that fiscal year unlike the government who spends that tax money when they get it in the form of the government budget pounds here's commercial customer account tripled year over year but in my opinion what we really care about is palantir's u.s commercial customer business really for two reasons first palantir's culture in general and alex carp specifically seem to be very focused on the u.s pound here is a patriotic company second their net dollar retention rate in the us is much higher than abroad 150 percent compared to 103 percent meaning that palantir is much more sticky with u.s commercial customers than they are overseas as a result it's great to see that their u.s commercial customer account is increasing by almost 400 percent year over year here's the second issue that i'm seeing investors punish palantir for with this increased focus on their commercial business comes an increased focus on hiring salespeople this is an upfront cost that's eating into their profitability today but is obviously going to pay off in the long run since more salespeople means more clients and more clients times a higher net dollar retention rate is one way to achieve exponential growth we're already starting to see that exponential growth on the us commercial side and i expect that growth to continue even more with the addition of more salespeople as investors we really need to decide what we want out of palantir if we want them to be a software as a service provider we shouldn't be selling the stock because they're building up a sales team if we want them to be more focused on the commercial side we shouldn't sell the stock when the growth on the government side is slowing down if investors want them to grow exponentially in the future we shouldn't sell when they're reinvesting in that growth today at the cost of current profitability wall street looks at all these things and sees something bad but again analysts are really looking at things quarter by quarter especially in today's volatile environment so comment below or tweet me at ticker symbol u with your thoughts on palantir's latest earnings call do you see anything that warrants such a sharp decline in their stock price or a reason for arc invest to be selling it other than what i already mentioned i'm excited to hear your thoughts if you're a long-term investor like me this is a great setup a whole bunch of macroeconomic factors are coming together to push pounce your stock down while the company is setting itself up for serious growth down the road i really like what i saw in their most recent earnings report and i'm not really seeing why arkhanvest thinks that the government procurement cycle has changed all i'm really seeing is more of the government's business coming palantir's way earlier in the government's fiscal year if anyone sees it differently i'd be happy to hear about it in the comments as well because my current plan is to start loading the boat at these prices maybe i'll even end up buying some of the shares that kathy wood just sold hopefully this episode helped you understand the disconnect between valencia's growth as a company and the decline of their stock as well as why kathy wood selling it isn't really a reflection of the company as much as it is arc invest goals and their investment style if it did 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