저자: TickerHawk · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 AI·반도체 고평가 종목에 숏을 치고 페이팔 등 저평가 종목을 매수한 포지션을 소개하며 각 종목에 매수/회피 판단을 내리는 영상. 어플라이드머티리얼즈(공정가 165 대비 주가 500+)·테슬라·팔란티어·마이크론/SOXX 등은 회피, 페이팔(FCF 60억달러, 8배)·JD.com·Fiserv 등은 저평가 매수 권고. 엔비디아는 보유, 과거 숏 포지션 다수가 수익이었으나 엔비디아 등 일부 실패 사례도 언급.
다듬은 글
An investor just placed a bet that's worth discussing. He is the same guy who bet against the housing market before 2008 and walked away with a fortune when everyone else called him crazy. Now, he's betting new money on a $380 billion tech company he deems worthless. And he's willing to wait until 2027 to prove himself right.
At the same time, he was quietly buying up shares in a payment company that most people thought was dead. So, who is actually right here? Is it him or the crowd that is rushing into the popular stocks right now? Ticker Hawk reviews stock by stock, naming them, giving you buy or avoid advice, and showing you the numbers behind them, not just a hunch.
If analysis like this is useful to you, click subscribe now so you don't miss out before the stock moves, as some of these predictions are already happening fast . Let's start with the one everyone online is talking about, Applied Materials, with the EMT code. This is a company that builds chip-making machines .
So, as the AI craze exploded, this stock soared, more than doubling in just the past year. Pessimistic analysis says this stock has shot up too far and too fast. And frankly, the numbers back that up more than people want to admit. Revenue has only grown by about 3% per year for the last 3 years. However, the stock trades at about 50 times earnings and 53 times free cash flow.
That's a premium price for a company growing 20 to 30% per year, not 3% . When Ticker Hawk ran a 10-year value model with conservative but fair assumptions, a fair price ranged from $110 to $ 240 per share. Let's say the midpoint is at 165. The stock is now above 500. That's not a small difference. It is a company that is priced to perfection in an industry that is unpredictable for the next 5 years.
Ticker Hawk Decision. Avoid this stock at current levels. Great business, bad entry point. Wait for a real correction before you consider it. Well, this is a name that might surprise you because it's not even a tech stock. This is Caterpillar with the code CAT, the big yellow manufacturer of construction and mining equipment .
The narrative pumping up these stocks is that every new AI data center requires concrete, steel, and heavy equipment to build. So, Caterpillar became an unintentional AI player. Interesting story, but look at the math. Analysts project profits will double over the next four years. An annual growth rate of 18% for a 100-year-old industrial company .
That's an aggressive assumption for a business tied to construction cycles and global commodity demand . Running a fair value model for Caterpillar with realistic single-digit earnings growth puts the stock in the $200 to $600 range, with a midpoint around $360. And that doesn't take into account the dividend, which consumes more than $2 billion annually of free cash flow.
The stock is trading around $850. Even the most optimistic scenario would not reach that number. Ticker Hawk Decision. Avoid. These are narrative stocks that ride on the success of others, not businesses whose numbers justify their price. Pause here for a moment because the next part is the turning point of this video, and this is what Ticker Hawk would actually choose for real investment over anything else mentioned before.
Write in the comments column, which side are you on so far, expensive AI stocks or boring cheap stocks? Because that difference is the main theme of this entire video. PayPal, with the ticker symbol PYPL, is the most obvious example of a good business that the market no longer cares about. The stock fell from over $300 to the 30s.
And for a while, no one wanted to touch it. But look at what's behind it. The company generates more than $6 billion in free cash flow annually. The stock trades at about eight times that free cash flow. And they recorded returns on capital in the tens of percent with a stable profit margin of around 14%.
And a multiple of eight times free cash flow on a profitable payments company. Processing billions of transactions is a number that is almost never seen except in conditions of total panic. Using conservative growth assumptions , mid-single-digit revenue growth, and slight margin improvement, the fair value model places the stock between $75 and $180, with a reasonable middle estimate well above $100.
The stock is currently trading near $60. There are even acquisition rumors circulating with a reported offer of around $61 per share. Frankly, if that's the real number, the offer underestimates the value of the business. Ticker Hawk recommends buying it. Boring companies, unpopular stocks , real cash flow, and valuation gaps.
Opportunities like this don't often come served on a silver platter. Staying on the industrial theme for a moment, Tesla, with the ticker code TSLA, has also been under serious pressure lately, down about 20% since bearish bets against it began to increase. Here's the thing about Tesla that many people are reluctant to say openly.
This stock has never traded like a car company, and that's not going to change now. The stock is trading on a narrative about robotaxis, humanoid robots , and energy storage that may or may not show up in the numbers on the timeline assumed by its stock price. when stock valuations are heavily dependent on things that haven't happened yet.
The downside risk when sentiment turns is brutal and we just witnessed it. Ticker Hawk doesn't call this stock worth aggressive buying at current levels. And this is n't something to be avoided completely either. This is a stock where you need to separate the mission from the numbers. If you own it because of the story, know that you are paying for hope, not current profits.
For now, it's best to avoid it unless the price drops significantly further as the multiples still assume unproven future execution rates . Let's talk about Micron ( codenamed MU) and the broader chip fund , SOXX, as both were hit hard once bearish bets on the semiconductor trade began to pay off. SOXX fell about 18 % in total and about 21% in a single month at one point, which shows how volatile and volatile the trade is.
Micron in particular is down about 18% since the day the bearish position was disclosed. The lesson here is not that the chip is finished. the demand for AI memory and infrastructure is real. The problem is that the entire sector is priced as if the boom will never slow, and any shock to AI capital spending is sure to hit these names the hardest because current prices leave no room for disappointment.
Ticker Hawk advises avoiding chasing this sector broadly at this time. Individual chip names may still do well, but you should wait for valuations that take into account the bad news, not just the constant good news . This is a name that most people have probably never heard of . Nebius, a newer AI infrastructure company that was also caught in the same wave of bearish bets, fell about 13% in a matter of days after the position was made public.
New and profitable or barely profitable, AI infrastructure names are some of the most dangerous places. Currently, because they combine sky-high expectations with a minimal track record, when sentiment turns on these stocks, there is no history of earnings, dividends, or brand loyalty to cushion the fall.
Ticker Hawk advises to avoid or at least keep any position size here as small as possible. This is speculation disguised as investment and it's okay if you realize that early on, just don't confuse it with the main asset . Now leave a comment below about this one because it's a real debate. Nvidia with the code NVDA is the only name in this whole AI trade that is actually moving in the opposite direction and rising even as bearish bets are piling up on everything around it.
That means a lot. This tells you that the market is still drawing a real distinction between the companies that are making essential tools out of this boom and everyone else who is simply riding on its success. Nvidia's revenue has continued to grow to a valuation that seemed excessive a year ago, but now no longer looks so high compared to actual profit growth.
Tickerhawk doesn't call this stock cheap. The price still reflects continued dominance. However, unlike Applied Materials or Caterpillar, the growth numbers here actually appear to justify much of that premium. Consider this a “ hold” if you already own it, and only buy on real weakness , rather than chasing it at current prices.
JD.com, with the ticker ticker JD, is another stock worth watching. Up about 21% from its recent low after starting to get a second look as everyone was busy chasing AI stocks. Chinese tech stocks have been under pressure for years due to regulatory fears and economic concerns about China's growth. That fear has pushed the valuations of some genuinely profitable businesses down to levels typically seen in companies in serious trouble, not market leaders.
JD.com has real logistics infrastructure, real revenues, and is trading well below the valuations of similarly sized US companies; Tickerhawk calls it a cautious buy. The regulatory risks are real, and they are not going away. So, adjust your position size wisely, but the valuation gap compared to the actual quality of the business is hard to ignore.
Let's talk big. People keep asking about Palantir, with the stock code PLTR. This is where the story gets aggressive as there are now bearish bets on the stock going into 2027, with those behind it reportedly pegging the company's true value at around a dollar per share, well below the stock's current trading price of hundreds of dollars.
That is an extreme assessment. Here's Tickerhawk's honest take . Palantir is a real company with real government and corporate contracts. It's not a fictitious product, but its shares trade at a price-to-sales multiple that assumes flawless execution over the next decade on a continuous basis, in a business that still relies heavily on a small number of large contracts.
You don't need the bearish scenario to be completely true for today to be a bad entry point . You just need growth to slow down instead of accelerating forever. And this stock has a lot of room to fall from these valuations. Tickerhawk advises avoiding this stock at current prices . It's not a bet that the business will fail.
It's a bet that perfection is already priced in , and perfection never lasts forever. A quick look at Oracle, ticker code ORCL, and Microsoft, ticker code MSFT, as they both appear in the same story in different ways. The position against Oracle was closed with a solid gain and recently reopened, currently at a slight loss, while the holding in Microsoft was sold off entirely after a big run-up.
These two stocks are not recommendations to avoid or buy like the others. Both are reminders that even giant software companies are not immune to price adjustments if growth expectations far exceed reality. Tickerhawk would rather own Microsoft during a real correction than chase it after a big rally.
And Oracle's valuation is already quite high thanks to the AI cloud hype, so a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted here. Rounding out the buy side, keep an eye on stocks like Lululemon (ticker LULU), Fiserv (ticker FI), MercadoLibre ( ticker MELI), and Tencent, which trades in the US as TCEHY.
All four were snapped up during this period precisely because they were unpopular, under-hyped, or overshadowed by more exciting AI news. Lululemon has been hit by concerns that its best growth years are over. However, it remains a highly profitable brand and trades at fractions of its old multiples.
Fiserv and MercadoLibre are in the boring but essential category. Latin American payment and e-commerce infrastructure. Both are areas with real long-term demand that the market has ignored in favor of chasing chip stocks. Tencent faces the same China discounts as JD.com, despite owning some of the world's most dominant gaming and social platforms.
Tickerhawk likes all four to buy on weakness. Not because they're interesting, but because boring and cheap is where the best long-term opportunities are usually hidden. However, not all bets in this group paid off. Positions in sports betting company Flutter, ticker FLUT, have been trending in the wrong direction and are now losing money, a reminder that even cheap and unpopular strategies don't always win on every stock .
That's no reason to panic. That's how a real portfolio works . Two more names fall into the disliked group before we end. Adobe, ticker ADBE , and Zoetis, ticker ZTS. Adobe has been held back for more than two years by concerns that AI tools would eventually [ __ ] its entire business from within. And that fear has pushed its stock multiples down to levels the company hasn't seen in a long time .
Despite still having industry-standard software that millions of creative professionals use every day, Tickerhawk's view is simple. The AI disruption story is a real risk worth watching, but it's been aggressively calculated, perhaps too aggressively , and it's a gap worth buying into bit by bit, not all at once.
Zoetis, the animal health company, is rarely talked about because animal medicine is not a hot topic, but it is a stable business with high margins, pricing power, and almost no correlation to what is happening with AI chips or interest rates at the time. Both earn cautious buy ratings from Ticker Hawk, not because they're attractive, but because the market has priced in pessimism that far exceeds actual business conditions.
One more pattern is worth noting before we move on, as it explains a lot about how this strategy works in practice. In addition to PayPal, there were also purchases in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two mortgage giants that have been entangled in government oversight dramas for more than a decade. Additionally, an early stake in a sports betting company called DraftKings was sold off entirely after its value rose enough to lock in a profit.
That is a summary of the strategy . Buy during times of high uncertainty when prices already reflect the worst-case scenario. And don't fall in love with your position after the market finally agrees with you and pays you for getting in early. Most retail investors do the opposite. They chase stocks after they rise and hold on to losing stocks because of stubborn pride .
Reverse those habits and you're well on your way to achieving the mindset of an investor who truly wins over a full market cycle. So here's the bigger picture that brings this all together. For the past 6 weeks , the pattern at each step has been the same. Bet against stocks that everyone loves and won't stop buying, and bet against stocks that are abandoned and no one cares anymore.
And when you examine the results instead of just reading the comments section calling this guy finished, most of the bearish bets on the hottest AI and chip stocks have actually paid off big, falling 20% or more in a matter of weeks, while some of the unloved buys, like PayPal and JD.com, have surged 20 to 30% higher in the same period.
Not all decisions are successful. Nvidia moved against the bearish thesis and Flutter suffered losses. And that's the point Ticker Hawk wants you to ponder. No one is always successful. Not this investor, not any analyst, not anyone you've ever watched on this platform. What works from time to time is not true all the time.
But rather have a repeatable process to differentiate between businesses that are truly worth the price you pay and those that simply rely on a buzzy, popular story without leaving any room for error. Let us know in the comments which one you're most concerned about right now, PayPal , Palantir, or Applied Materials, because the next few weeks will quickly separate the real thesis from the hype.
And Ticker Hawk will track each of these positions as the numbers come in. If this analysis helps you look at one of your assets in a different way, share it with someone who is chasing the same AI stocks as everyone else, it might prevent them from making a bad buying position. And if you want future updates on which calls succeeded and which failed, make sure you're subscribed because this list will look very different a month from now.
And Ticker Hawk will be here to dissect what's changed and why it matters to you.
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