저자: kazuma · 외국인
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SOXL 2시간봉에서 삼산천장(세 봉우리) 완성 및 넥라인 이탈로 약세 신호 제시, 넥라인 대비 20% 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 반도체/AI 버블 아님, 과열 상태이나 버블 초기 단계로 봄. 천재 투자자 Leopold 포트폴리오를 소개하며 AI 인프라(전력·데이터센터·비트코인 채굴) 중심 롱, 반도체 풋옵션 헤지 구조 설명. 개인적으로 AI 인프라 강세 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
Okay, I'm going to try a one-take YouTube video again today . First of all, Kyoto and odd numbers , so from 63 to 66, and uh, 63, so is it broken? I've been stuck here for a while now , but I'd like to introduce it to you again later . Let's put that aside for now . Everyone, this is bad. Everyone, we've finally reached a whopping 300,000 hype points [laughs] Is n't that amazing, everyone?
Thank you so much . Yesterday's video got a ton of views, even if it only reached 18,000 views, that's still almost 20,000. And with 300,000 likes and 859 likes, it was definitely going viral in my opinion . thank you . Next time, I'm definitely going to reach 400,000 . Before you know it, it'll reach 1 million yen.
I'll just let it go . Well, next I'm aiming for 400,000, and then 1,000 likes, so I'll do my best to achieve that . And now, for the members , we have released the port usage for April . good morning. Thank you for disclosing your assets. So, when Trump was fully in power, I watched your video and you said that you had no funds left to hold, and that you sold all of your S&P500 and VTI investments in a specific account where you had been accumulating S&P500 in Q3 and invested the rest in SXL, and that's why it's skyrocketed, so congratulations!
And well, the Portrio was released in April, and although it was quite long, I'll reread it many times and treasure it. So, let's keep doing our best from now on . So, I can't afford to lose either. SXL is aiming for 500 million yen next, and we'll do our best, but the number of members has already reached an incredible 57 million.
That's a great momentum. At the end of April, it was 5200 , but since then it has increased by nearly 500m . The number has increased quite a bit. For those of you who have joined, I would appreciate it if you could watch the video from October 20th . There is a comment service, and for those who want a member to reply to their comment , we offer this service for 2390 yen , so please write your comment there.
So today, I'd like to talk about that trending topic again. But first of all, well, my name has passed the 150 million yen mark, and I'd like to work hard to reach 500 million people next. But in the midst of all that, take a look . The reactionary sector was down today . NBA Broadcom, Micron, Intel, AMD, and other companies that were also experiencing a decline were all in the market .
So, SOXL has fallen 20% from its high, and that's the situation we're in now. Oh my, oh my , oh my , this is the 2-hour chart for SOXL. So, what's the situation now? Well, three mountains have formed, and the middle mountain is the tallest . If you're wondering what this is, it's the Sanzon ceiling.
If you're wondering what a "safe ceiling" is, it means this signal lights up near the ceiling. So, it's supposed to be finished once it falls below the neckline, but the three-tiered ceiling is already complete, which is not something to be happy about, but it has fallen below this red neckline . Therefore, this is a weak signal.
So , uh, it's like this. This, well, the movement is like this according to the textbook. The percentage decline from the top to the neckline means that if the price breaks below that level, it will continue to fall by the same percentage from the neckline . This is exactly the rate of decline you'd expect from a textbook.
So, as of now , if you're wondering what percentage SOXL has fallen , it's down about 20% from its peak to the neckline . So , if SXL were to fall by 20% from here, it would look something like this, and if it follows the textbook pattern, it would indicate that SXL still has room to fall further. So, well, among those, three mountains have been completed, and I made an announcement to members only that I will be doing SOSL on May 11th .
And, by the way, this image here, although I haven't mentioned the contents , I've also been doing this as a general submission . I've been introducing thumbnails that say "SXL" even for regular posts, but I actually compile general videos and comments from various people and come up with titles, but these are all my own analyses , so I do n't use membership thumbnails to hype things up.
Well , I posted on May 11th that I would confirm this to be true . So, I've been telling our members not to buy it here under any circumstances . That's spot on! So, thank you for your comment . The stock price has fallen precisely as predicted . We've also received comments like, "It's just as expected and so cool, and even though our assets have decreased, our mental state has n't been worn down, so I'm really glad we became a member," and thank you as always for your accurate analysis .
So, thank you very much. Well, that's why I was telling you not to buy it here . I see you left another comment. Well, in the video the other day, Ka-san said that SXL is a top-tier stock and that buying it would be risky . Thanks to that, I myself was able to avoid buying at a high price . Well, if there's an urgent need like that, you'd want it, wouldn't you?
I had been saying that it was absolutely not okay , but it seems that the planned road route is being changed . SXL, right? On the other hand, today , the software sector in the technology industry is experiencing a very strong rise . As I've mentioned before, even before Microsoft, if you look at the chart shape, it's an extremely good shape .
What this is, is a strong triangle formation, and it's lit up on the weekly chart . So, if it breaks above this level, it will rise sharply, so I'm really looking forward to seeing if it will move exactly as described in the textbooks. And Microsoft, which represents the software sector, has a very strong chart.
So , this is the asset allocation of the hedge fund, and right now they're investing a lot in reactionary assets . On the other hand, software has been steadily declining recently . The key point here is whether there is a sector decline or not, and I would like to start by asking whether this is a reaction or a bubble .
Well, to get straight to the point, the answer is no . Here, we are comparing a chart showing past bubble markets with the current tendency towards market reversal. The current number of people with a tendency towards a reactionary constitution is shown by the red line . So, past bubble markets are shown in various colors, but for example, what kind of bubbles have there been?
This one, right? The US stock market in the 1970s. So, these are the 50 popular premium large-cap growth stocks that are guaranteed not to go down in value. Well, there were brands like Coca-Cola and McDonald's, but in the end, their stock prices plummeted. And, well, the bubble is, um, a dark blue, cone- like, or rather, a bluish line .
And then there's the IT bubble of the 2000s . N-Cock, this was referred to as a bubble , and it is also shown with a light blue line. Well, that brings us to the point. When we compare the current situation to past bubble markets, we're right here, right now. Now , look at the red recoil here. This is nothing compared to past bubble markets, is it?
The higher you get, the faster you fight, but compared to AI buckets and .com buckets, you can see that we're still at a much lower level. yes. So, while we don't know if this will suddenly surge like the IT bubble , if you compare it to past bubble markets, you'd say that the current market is extremely overheated.
This shows that it has n't become a bubble yet . Of course, it is heated . It's not a bubble. And , if a bubble market is really coming, there will definitely be a correction. This is N-series, but, well, it looks like a slight drop of 15%, 20%, 20% , but it's actually a drop of around 20% . And within that context, it has been rising steadily , so even if a bubble forms in the future , a correction is inevitable.
yes. So , now, let's get down to business, or rather, let's talk about something interesting. Well , I was thinking of talking about something that's been trending lately: men . When you think of the guy who's been trending recently, who comes to mind first ? Is it this guy? Don Tom Lee? No, he's not trending, it's this guy.
Here comes Miss Nya . Who is this person? It's Leopold Ashbranner. yes. So, this 25-year-old is considered a genius. He's a genius who's become incredibly famous in the last two years or so, and today I'd like to tell you a little about him . Well, you might be wondering who this person is, but at the age of 19, he graduated from Columbia University as the top of his class .
The former AI researcher who repaid the debt—just these two lines alone make me think he's a genius. The reason this man is currently attracting so much attention is that in just over a year he has grown the fund's assets from $200 million to $5.5 billion, which is about 28 times the original amount .
He's not just on the level of Michael Barre-Leigher or Tom Leigher anymore; he's on a whole other level , and people are saying, "Isn't he just too much of a genius?" That's why he's attracting so much attention. So, I'd like to share a bit about the mindset of this genius . So, humanity still doesn't understand the true danger of the AI revolution?
He's saying that it would n't be surprising if an AI capable of being on par with a top human researcher emerges around 2027 or 2028 . So , when AI starts researching and improving on its own, the rate of progress will explode . So, this is what a genius's brilliant idea looks like . yes. So, the real focus of AI is n't just on recoil mechanisms, is it?
Well, right now it's being called an AI bubble, and for example, people are saying that the real deal, the one that's rising the most right now, is the reactionary force, but I'm saying that the core of it isn't just the reactionary force . So , in the minds of many investors, including myself, when it comes to AI investment, of course, the NBIA, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google immediately come to mind, and that's where we start .
If AI were to predict that the market would truly become a bubble and rise, people would invest in it, would n't they? He seems to be different . Apparently, he's different. The genius Leopold, well, his thinking was quite different. So where exactly are we investing? The real profits come from addressing bottlenecks.
What are those, you ask? Well, as AI grows, there will be a shortage of certain things, and that's where this genius is investing . yes. So , I'd like to introduce you to a truly amazing portfolio of geniuses from very recently . Here, as you can see, is a long list of my portfolio, but this is my portfolio up until very recently; it's not the most recent .
I'll tell you about the latest ones later, but this is our portfolio up until very recently, and , well, if we roughly divide it into sectors, we're quite bullish on the power sector. Well, we have a list of projects totaling around 170 billion yen, which we've shown here, but the genius Porto here thinks that an AI revolution that is very strong in the power sector will be equivalent to a power revolution.
So, you're saying that with the advancement of AI, we'll need an unprecedented amount of electricity? yes. Next up is the AI Data Center. Well, that's how it is here . I understand. And there are other things as well, like Bitcoin mining. We've also invested in companies like Clean Spark and Airen, as mentioned here .
So, what we're thinking is that we need land for an AI data center, and also a large-scale power plant and a large plot of land that can directly and stably procure a massive amount of electricity . And then there's the reaction body. yes. Oh, companies like SanDisk and AMD have been really popular recently, haven't they?
So, of course , this guy also invested in reactionary forces, roughly dividing them into three categories like this . So, they hadn't invested in the reaction system or Nia . This is definitely the key to this genius. yes. So, normally, if AI improves, you'd put it on the NBR. But actually, all of this is necessary.
Power to run the GPU , land to place the GPU, and other things like communication and storage. This is absolutely necessary, isn't it? We were proactively investing in areas where AI would be absolutely essential as it grows . So, this person's thinking is that he doesn't invest in the NBA. And now, the latest port data for the "delicate genius" has finally been released, so I would like to introduce it to you here .
This is a Mininic, and from what I can see, it has a huge number of put options. This is a put option. For those who don't know what it is, it's a bet on a significant decline in the market . That's what a put option is. Hall is bullish, betting on an upward trend, but is betting weak on puts. So, take a look .
When you say "eh," it looks like this. N-Rear, um, SMH, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, MICRO, they're all reaction-oriented. These are all put options, and they purchased a massive amount of put options worth approximately 1 trillion yen at a rate of about 2 options per yen . So, what is the king of the market right now?
It's the reaction force . The reaction force, the central angle, has been applied all at once with a put option , and that's why they're predicting a decline in the reaction force. In other words, he's not talking about the situation on the ground, but rather he's judging the current reaction to be getting a bit overheated .
Yeah. That's right . It's been rising recently. So, that's where I'm putting it . On the other hand, we maintain a strong, even extremely strong, stance on AI, electricity, data centers, Bitcoin, and mining-related fields . In other words, I am convinced, confident, that the AI revolution is real and will definitely not end here .
And next, what we need is electricity and land. This also remains unchanged, and because we are making these kinds of investments, this is not a matter of whether AI will go up or down . In this person's mind, AI infrastructure is a strong contender, but there are also necessary counter-reactions to the need for AI.
In other words, the key to predicting where AI funding will flow next is being explored in Portrio today . However, this completely clarifies the reaction force. It's putting it. A genius is putting it. So, does that mean we have to sell right now? Not exactly. And if you ask if this is a complete weak reaction, that's not the case either.
The long positions are centered on AI infrastructure, so if this crashes, it's all over. So, as a hedge against the crash, he's buying puts. That's why he's buying puts like this. There's a possibility that power will win out over the decline of the reaction, and that's why this guy has been trending recently.
In summary, the AI revolution is just beginning. Well, if you just take a quick look at Portle and such, some people are saying that now is the peak of AI, and that a huge crash is coming from here, but I don't know what they're talking about . I think that this person probably thinks, " These people don't understand anything," and I feel the same way .
If this is the peak of the AI bubble, then it's nowhere near as impressive as any past bubble market . So, well, however, well, I can't understand what geniuses think. Well, investment strategies are also important, but this person 's investment style involves constantly circulating money through sector rotation, gradually increasing assets.
However, I use a reactionary cycle, investing when it's bullish and getting out when it's bearish. Well, I will be making investments like that, but if you found today's video interesting, please hit the like button. And, and , and, and, we are doing hype, hype hype . Next, I'll do my best to aim for 400,000 . Thank you all so much, as always. See you again in the next video! bye bye .
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