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It's official. Israel, Iran, the Ayatollah, the United States, everyone has agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Israel is not happy with this. We're going to talk about the details. Donald Trump has some comments via his press secretary about whether or not a meeting's actually going to take place on Friday.
And we're still having bombs being sent to Israel despite the acceptance of this deal. So, maybe the left hand isn't talking to the right. We've got to break this down in addition to talk about what stocks potentially to buy the dip on. We're going to do a teaser in this video and we will be buying the dip tomorrow with course members on some of my favorite picks in addition to potentially one or two new stocks on top of the 11 we already love.
Let's break this all down. But first, we have to open up a delivery that I just received. I got this this package right here. And I wanted to share the opening of it with y'all. Uh I thought, you know, you know, we've been getting kind of close on the channel together. We hang out all the time. You know, you're subscribed.
You follow me on Instagram to see my little silly stories of the family and stuff. So, I wanted to share opening this box with you. Um What's this? Oh, uh it looks like there's also a coupon code for the courses over at meetkevin.com and the alpha membership called dude44. That's funny. That's the call sign of our rescued brave American hero pilot.
With certainty we'll have behind enemy lines number two filmed with that guy in it. But uh it looks like what's in this box is a hard shell taco, steak, lettuce, and cheese taco. So, cheers, my friends. Pop a beer, pop a tea, diet coke, whatever the heck you're into. Take a bite and rejoice that we're not going into a World War III for now.
Get started with the content. But after I swallow. Somebody's going to leave one of those comments. Content starts 1 minute in. All right, here we go. An in-person meeting is tentatively set by a Pakistan on Friday in Islamabad. That is Pakistan. However, Carolyn Levitt has told us that this is not yet a set deal and that announcement still needs to be made by Donald Trump.
Donald Trump, however, has called with known as a lid. That's because he's going on a little dinner date with some foreign minister from India and he's not really going to be talking about Iran. For now, he's wrapped up talking about Iran for the day. So, we have been told. He could always truth something else.
Anyway, US and Israel have suspended bombing immediately in the announcement of the of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, which aligns with our expectation that we were going to get some kind of taco today for Taco Tuesday and we have instead moved it to 2 weeks from now, which just happens to be another Taco Tuesday.
Now, the United States and Israel have been ramping up their bombing inside of Iran over the last 48 hours. Probably because they likely anticipated some form of a pause or taco or tentative ceasefire coming, which likely encouraged them to get done what they could. Israel has reluctantly agreed to this ceasefire.
Israel states that they still have targets in the region and they would like to militarily finish them off. Now, Israel has agreed though that they will be bound by this deal. They have acknowledged that Donald Trump is the leader and Bibi is an ally, which of course many people disagree with that and argue that Bibi is actually secretly the puppet master, making Donald Trump feel like he's making all the decisions while secretly manipulating Donald Trump and people like Jared Kushner to do exactly the biddings of Israel.
Those are obviously the opinions of some. Some people say those opinions are broadly held. Anyway, ultimately he says President Trump makes his own decisions and I do respect them. Now, the conditions of the ceasefire are very important. We're going to break down what the conditions of the ceasefire are and we're also going to break down exactly what Iran's tentative 10-point plan is to actually end the war because right now everything, this entire ceasefire is subject to the Strait of Hormuz actually reopening.
Now, so far the supreme leader, the Ayatollah, has approved the ceasefire. That's actually quite remarkable because we've been told in the public that oh well, you know, everything can get vetoed by the Ayatollah. Who cares if the parliament, you know, the president of parliament is talking to the Americans?
Who cares what the foreign minister says? Who cares what the Turks or the Egyptians or Pakistanis are doing? It doesn't matter because the Ayatollah has veto power over everything. However, in this case, the Ayatollah has approved the ceasefire and Iran argues that they have won the war, which is interesting because Donald Trump also argues that he has won the war, which is what we suggested in our taco scenario.
We had multiple scenarios this morning. We'll go through those again in just a moment, but we thought there was a low strike. We were going to get a complete deal done. Uh you know, that was a 10% chance. We thought there was a 15% chance we were actually going to go through with strikes. And people made fun of me in the comments and said, "Oh, that 15% is way too low." Then I thought there might be some kind of extension with more strikes at about a 25% chance.
And I thought we'd get some kind of ceasefire and frankly taco at a 50% chance. And that majority opinion is actually what ended up happening, which is great. And now it's actually shifting the market quite substantially towards even rate cuts. But let me just finish the thought on Iran claiming victory.
Iran says that they have forced the United States to accept their 10-point plan. They agree to open the Strait of Hormuz for 2 weeks and they will escort any ships through the Strait of Hormuz. They also want to toll the Strait of Hormuz and split the profits with Oman, which sits just on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz.
If you kind of look at it you know, from an angle, you've got Oman on the west and then you've got Iran on the eastern side, sort of northeastern and southwestern if you will, since it sits at a little bit of an angle. But anyway, I potentially think that might be because Iran sort of knows where the sea mines are or maybe people think there are sea mines and Iran, you know, might know and whether or not there are mines, the psychological warfare of Iran guiding people through there is probably a tool for making sure people don't hit mines, whether that is in actuality or just a perceived safety net.
Now, Trump, Israel, and the Ayatollah again have agreed to the ceasefire. Iran is claiming victory arguing they forced the United States to do this. Trump is also claiming victory arguing this war is basically over anyway. Now, as a result of the ceasefire, we've immediately seen the complete collapse of oil prices.
Nowhere near to where you know, levels where we were previous before this war, but take a look at this. Earlier today we sat at about 106 116.67, you know, 117 somewhere around there. And we've dropped all the way down to about 96 getting as low as into the 94 92 range over here, which is remarkable.
This is on Western crude for the May contract. We'll start trading the June contract on this uh CNBC chart on the 20th of this month. That's when we'll start seeing that uh you know, chart roll over. Now, the Brent contracts usually don't roll over until the end of the month. So, the end of the month we'll see Brent roll over.
Brent right here is typically the June contract about Yeah, there it is. June. 2 months out and then at the end of the month it'll roll over to July. Brent also nicely collapsing down to about 93, which is huge. WTI a little bit more expensive at the moment. Obviously, if we zoom out year to date, uh we can see we are way higher than where we were at the start of the year at $60.
So, even at 90, we are still 50% more expensive on oil. That is going to have an effect on the consumer, on travel, and otherwise. So, there is still going to be damage as a result of these oil issues. And of course, we have to be careful with how excited we are because the war is not over yet. Now, we have been buying the dip.
I shared with course members dip buys that we've been doing. We've been buying the dip. We'll probably buy more tomorrow. Not because of what the Nasdaq 100 is doing, but because there are really good deals on certain, especially software companies, that in my opinion have unfairly been caught up in this AI mess.
Now, if you want all of those trade alerts for that wire that I just initiated and what it's going to hit tomorrow, make sure you join us. morning. You can use that coupon code dude 44. There's no rush right now. The coupon's not expiring soon. Uh so, you know, you've got a little bit of time, but if you want to get in on that tomorrow, obviously, go to meetkevin.com.
You can the same coupon code over at reinvest.co, househack.com. More on that though in the future as we release that major update in the next 2 and 1/2-ish months here. Now, what else happened? Well, we saw the dollar in the in futures is getting sold off. Why is the dollar getting sold off? The dollar is getting sold off because of the potential for rate cuts.
A potential for rate cuts are actually getting priced into the market right now and I call this a bullish catalyst. Bullish catalyst. If you follow me on X, you might have already seen my post about this. And if you hate X, don't worry, you could download the Meet Kevin app and see the same thing. If you download the Meet Kevin app, it's totally free.
You could see my note on rate cuts getting priced in or you could see it on X, you know, really whatever platform you prefer. But December futures now indicating 40.8% chance of rate cuts in December following a ceasefire. This is a complete U-turn from the odds of a rate hike, potentially even two or three rate hikes when you put it all together, just 2 weeks ago when all of these bars were sitting on the right side.
This is actually a bullish risk-on catalyst. Now again, it doesn't mean that the war is over and we have to be careful going, you know, all in, oh my gosh, the bull bear scale is at a It's not, right? We still have underlying risks in the economy, so we have to be cautious. The bull bear bull scale absolutely goes up on this.
This is fantastic. We said we'd be in the fours if we ended up having war go on through April. We are or or or you know, through the end of March and into April. Right now, we're probably sitting at closer to about a five a four if I had to update the chart right now and I'll pull it up for you so you could sort of see the evolution of this.
Now, one of the reasons I'm adding in a five four here is because ADP jobs data, which came out this morning, which nobody's been talking about, came in at 15.25k, which is great because 15.25 * 4 roughly. You'd really want to go divided by seven, right? And then you go times 30 to get an actual monthly data set here equals Oh, it doesn't even calculate the math for me, stupid Apple.
That works out to about 65,000 jobs right now on a monthly basis based on ADP of growth, which is obviously not as great as we used to have when we actually had immigration, but it's decent. And so underlying economic data, as we've been saying in the videos, is still decent. Now, we're going to have a bad CPI report on Friday, but whatever.
Let's keep focusing on the deals with this. Again, we're going to be cautious. It's okay to buy the dip and be cautious. It doesn't mean run and sell everything. But let's break apart that 10-point plan because not only right now do we have risk-on assets rallying, such as the Nasdaq 100 technology is going almost all the way up to the 607 line, breaking straight through 595.
Reject Look at that. Look, you literally match my lines here. If you look at this closely, you reject at 595, then you break through, you reject at 600, then you break through, and you get within about a 12 cents to the 607 line. Cheat. Write those lines down yourself, okay? I don't mind if you steal them from me.
I still love you. I appreciate you watching. Now, uh Bitcoin, obviously risk assets straight off of that 69 line over here, uh settling at about just under a $72,000 right now. So, what's part of this 10-point plan and how realistic is this 10-part plan? Let's go through this one by one so we can actually understand some of these details uh and what some of these are going to entail.
Donald Trump says this 10-point plan is {quote} "unquote workable." Again, you can get this list in the Meet Kevin app totally for free. Anyway, a permanent end to hostilities, okay? My opinion on this, this is likely easy to agree to as any new hostilities would just have new justifications, right?
So, it's easy to say, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure. As long as you agree to this, we'll never attack you again." But, it's conditional, right? Duh, as any deal is. So, in my opinion, that one's a gimme. Guarantees that the US and Israel won't attack again? If not monetary, you know, and and and and just just a promise, this this is another gimme, right?
So, I I'm writing this down so you could kind of see this development of my opinion with you, like together we can see this. Ceasefire agreements include Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. So, this is basically saying, "Hey, Israel, stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon." This is I think why Israel wants to kind of keep going a little bit because, you know, they're not so confident that they're safe with Hezbollah and yeah, you know, basically rockets aimed at Israel.
Anyway, all sanctions on Iran should be lifted. This is an interesting one because it would include those imposed by George W. Bush, but you can always have new ones, right? Trump could always issue new ones in the future, right? So, another gimme. This isn't that hard. You know, Israel's going to follow Israel will follow Trump.
They need our weapons and money. So, I mean, I I hate to say it, okay? I'm not trying to be like anti-Israel or whatever. It's let's just be real, okay? The size of Israel relative to the size of Iran is is you know, I mean, it's somewhere around like a factor of eight. I think Israel's population's probably somewhere around, you know, 10 mil and Iran is somewhere around 80 million, right?
That's a factor of eight. It's it's crazy. Now, obviously the economies are different, but still, you know, you got you got the United States helping Israel, and then of course you've got Russia and China aiding Iran. So, there are there are some things that sort of like change the comparison as well.
Allies, really. Uh then uh we have all sanctions lifted on Iran's allies. Uh so, that's an interesting one, you know, because this this implies uh implies China, Russia, uh North Korea. We already lifted uh Russian oil sanctions, which Trump may likely uh quietly keep off, right? So, kind of loosening that those ties on Russia.
So, Russia is a big winner here, right? Not only did they get higher oil prices for a quite a while, but they get these sanctions removed. They got uh you know, deepen ties with Iran and share intelligence and weapons with Iran. Uh and and it's it's going to motivate Iran to build more weaponry inside of Russia as well, in case they need it again in the future.
So, you're really tightening those ally uh allied relations there. Anyway, Iran takes control of the Strait of Hormuz. We already talked about that. Iran's military will coordinate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, probably because they know where the mines are, that's my opinion. Iran can charge fees on crossing the strait.
This was previously announced at about a dollar per barrel. Uh that would be split with Oman. This is really not a big deal. We don't know what number 10 is yet, but they want to use the toll money for reconstruction. It's probably honestly the best way to phrase the reconstruction money. Uh and we've previously talked about this on the channel, where we said, "Hey, if actually about those tolls, if if we can argue that reparations are coming through some kind of tax or tariff, then it doesn't make it feel like Israel's paying it or the United States is paying it.
It's really the entire global economy. But, frankly, you know, a buck a barrel isn't going to make a difference, okay? What what matters is, you know, $117 $120 a barrel oil versus 90 or 80 or $70 a barrel oil. Now, still going to take time to repair. Qatar's natural gas liquefied natural gas facilities could take years to repair.
Kuwait petroleum argues it's going to take about 3 to 4 months to get back to full production. And remember this this is a 2-week ceasefire. It's a 2-week taco. We are not yet at the end of this war, but it's likely that the United Nations envoy to the general secretary being in Tehran today helped.
I'm going to be making a list of stocks to buy you know, breakdown for course members. Remember you can get that over at mekevin.com. And then you can also subscribe to the channel because there are some things that we'll talk about on the channel as well probably tomorrow or the next day you know, after we do some shopping.
But anyway, this was Donald Trump's taco statement. We've got a few other things to cover here as well in addition to Donald Trump's taco. I'll also give you a little sneak peek on some of the sectors that I'm thinking of regarding the stock market. But here's Donald Trump's taco statement. Donald Trump basically says that the Islamic Republic of Iran has agreed to the complete immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Or if they do, I agree to suspend bombing for 2 weeks, which they did, right? I've received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which I believe is a workable basis on which to negotiate. So obviously we're not done negotiating here. This was just an off-ramp for Donald Trump. So far again, US and Israeli strikes have stopped.
The Iranian foreign minister says that they are going to cease their defensive operation, which implies opening the Strait of Hormuz, but you know, we're still seeing bombs going off in in in Israel or at least hearing sirens in places like the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia as well as Iran. Now again, it's possible or sorry as well as Israel.
It's possible some of that is due to the left hand not talking to the right, you know, that message not getting conveyed all the way yet. An Iranian launch was detected against Israel literally minutes after Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement. And then there was another volley that followed about an hour later, also followed by the Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE missile and drone warnings.
So, it's really not over until it's over. Uh NATO and Marco Rubio, so NATO's General Secretary Marco Rutte and Marco Rubio will be meeting at 9:30 Eastern tomorrow, especially, you know, Rutte is like a total suck-up to Donald Trump. He kind of knows how to play Donald Trump, so I don't see that as bearish.
It's probably a good thing. Uh Iran says it has achieved a great victory. We got that already. Iran Security Council calls this a step forward, so does their foreign minister. Uh we've got uh clarifying Let's see what else here. Uh let's just get into stocks. I think that's Those are all the facts right here.
We already talked about setting the record on what we said in terms of predictions. Our highest likelihood ended up playing out. This isn't to pat myself on the back, it's just because there are some morons that say things on social media that are like, "Uh but Cathie, your titles or whatever were fear-mongering." And I actually just want to shout out this person.
Uh let's see here. Where Where are they? Where are they? Where are they? I can't find it right now. But anyway, somebody replied and said essentially, "Hey, are you somebody who just reads the title or do you actually watch the video?" So, you know, whatever. Maybe they don't. But we're Whoever that person is, thank you.
We appreciate you. Okay, let's now talk about stocks because we have been talking about buying the dip as well over the last few weeks despite the fact that there has been a lot of bad news. So, obviously the NASDAQ 100 Technology Index is going heading back over here to 605. But there are going to be a a of stocks that I think move on this.
I really think you'll probably have like a 98% green day tomorrow. Pretty much everything should be up. Uh let's see here. Quickly, I got a red line coming through. Iran poses persistent threat to US military and officials, Jewish and Jewish and Israeli institutions, and Iranian dissidents. A March 20th report says from the FBI.
All right. Well, I mean, it's kind of old news now. But anyway, uh so some things to keep an eye on. Uh we we did some fundamental analysis this morning on the manufacturer of the meta glasses. I personally, honestly, I think they're a little bit overpriced and their margins aren't that great, probably because of tariffs and otherwise.
Smart glasses, not not so juicy right now. I do think that memory stocks will try to resume their surge. Although, you have to be careful here because memory prices are peaking out. So, I get a little bit nervous about memory stocks. I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in software. Not necessarily saying this is the any of these are going to be stocks that I'm going to buy.
I'm just going to roll some off here. AppLovin has a relatively low valuation. I'm going to go into the Meet Kevin app for course members right now and I'm going to look at the notes and the valuation that I wrote down for this company. When you join the Meet Kevin membership, you can just open the app and you can literally go to this stocks tab and then scroll down on the side to whatever stock you want to look at that I've reviewed.
So, for App, I write down frankly four X green flags. And it's got a PEG ratio of about 1.3 as of today. So, it's not I mean, for software, it's really cheap. It's probably got like 70% upside in it. But, it's not under a one PEG to where it's gotten like ridiculously inexpensive, right? Uh another one people ask me about regularly is Amazon.
Sitting at about 1.56 PEG right now. Does imply some pretty good upside. Apple's probably one of the more expensive mag sevens right now, obviously outside of Tesla. Apple sits at a 3.2 PEG right now, which is, you know, pricey. Now, just so you know the way I calculate a PEG ratio is I use the forward earnings estimates, the forward three to four years of earnings estimates.
I take that growth rate. A lot of people get confused cuz they Google, "Hey." or they ask Gemini, "Hey, what's the, you know, PEG ratio for a certain stock?" or list stocks by PEG ratio, and they're using the trailing estimates, and then it makes companies like Sandisk look cheap because they had most of their growth in the past, not forecast going forward.
So, if I look at a a ticker like Sandisk right now, it has a 3.8 PEG, but if you use the trailing PEG, it's going to look a lot lower and it'll look like a deal, but that could be a mistake. You got to be careful on that one. Uh Palantir has honestly really done well in terms of growing into its valuation.
Uh Palantir for a very long time was quite overvalued, but they just kept growing and growing, and they're honestly at about a fair valuation right now. We'll do a deeper dive into them, but I I have to give them credit. This is the first time I've seen Palantir at a fair price. Uh their EPS projections are excellent.
Uh it's it's a company you really can't bet against. There's just no juicy technical discount here. Commercial revenue up 121% year-over-year. The sales and marketing only grew 24%. That's a sign of pricing power, man. That's PP right there. That's really, really nice. And we love PP around here. The bigger the PP, the better.
Uh I personally would be a little bit cautious on some of the consumer plays, like, you know, the Affirms, the financials. Uh I still think both of these, Swarm and um VCX, are both going to collapse. I'd stay far away from these. Uh Swarm has, you know, decently held on in the 40s. It won't last. It, you know, it's a company with no revenues, losing money hand over fist.
Uh deeper analysis on the channel on that one. VCX is is going to bleed out probably uh I would guess down to certainly sub $50. So, I would stay away from some of these momentum names. But, you know, Meta, here's an interesting one. Meta's got a very, very cheap financial uh what's it called PEG ratio right now.
So does Microsoft. Microsoft sitting at a 1.37 suggest it has almost a double inside of it based on our analysis. Uh Meta even more so. Wall Street growth rate currently sits about 16.8% over the next 4 years. And they're really good at offloading their debt to private equity. So if they collapse, Meta has out.
Absolutely brilliant. Uh so, uh you know, pretty exciting uh opportunity there. Uh let's see if we got some other ones here. Circle. Circle will probably come meme roaring back. You know, it's it's really had this phenomenal recovery uh from from the bottom at about 50 bucks. We didn't buy it as low as 60 bucks.
We bought it around 60 68 bucks. Somewhere on somewhere on this legendary line right here, which was the bottom of my original Fibonacci's. Uh we wrote it up. It's come down a little bit. Still up quite a bit on the investment. I think that'll resume. Uh you know, to be determined if we'll actually buy the dip on Circle or we'll go buy something else.
Another one to think about, you know, Trade Desk. Uh Trade Desk has some issues. You got to be a little careful on that one. Intuit, just something to watch. 417 bucks in the in the overnight. This is a pretty damn cheap one. So is Axon. If you go into Intuit, I'll just read you a couple things off on Intuit.
Uh let's see here. There it is. Intuit, 1.12 PEG, more than a double in it. It's got bad momentum, low valuation, increasing pricing power. The balance sheet is excellent. This is a flashing buy for long term. Near term, it's still caught up in the software mess, right? 44% operating income growth, 17.3% revenue growth, margins are actually improving, suggesting they're able to raise price because of pricing power.
Uh they've got um 3.1 billion in bills, 4.3 billion in cash and receivables. In just 6 months, they have over $2 billion of cash flow, which is absolutely insane. Uh there there are some pretty exciting things on Intuit. Now, if I go to Axon, which is another one to look at, also at about a 1. um 12 PEG, decent balance sheet, definitely no bankruptcy risk, not as good as Intuit.
Valuation has gotten very cheap at 1.12, very good for this sort of company. This is uh you know, body cameras, tasers, report writing for police departments, D drone technology. Every police department should have this. Negative momentum, which is a buy signal, decent balance sheet, strong pricing power, and uh now a very cheap valuation.
We talk about their moat, police and national security departments don't vibe code. Uh we talk about AI aiding surveillance, counter drones, body cameras, dispatching, report writing, predictive patrol, drone dispatching. This is all just straight out of the Me Kevin app, but you get that when you're a member.
Uh so far, their stock plan has kind of been crushing some of their income, though. Uh however, that comes to an end at a certain point, which is nice. Uh however, I think that has led to uh some of the decline that we've seen. As far as uh financing, they have raised debt. They just raised about $1.7 billion of debt.
That's why I say the balance sheet is okay, because they did pick up a longer-term uh note there, note payable. Uh they've got plenty of cash, though, to pay their current bills. Really no bankruptcy risk. I didn't like that they took on the debt, but I think part of it is because they're trying to cover taxes on their employee stock uh uh you know grants basically and so they're raising the cash to do that take care of their insiders I get it it's a bummer but I think it creates an opportunity and so that that could be a very interesting one to watch tomorrow so this this is just initial reaction here if you liked it subscribe if you want to use coupon code dude 44 do so over at meetkevin.com in the meantime I'm going back to eating my taco a little cold now I'll probably go heat it up anyway see you folks thanks for watchi
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