저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 지수(Nifty/Sensex)는 시장 전체를 대표하지 못하며, 소수 대형주 위주 지수 투자보다 개별 종목 선택이 부를 만든다고 주장. 과거 자신의 다수 종목 대박 사례(Neuland 등)를 소개. 투자 원칙 SMILE(소형, 경영진 경험, 큰 포부, 시장 잠재력, 테마)을 제시하고, 재생에너지·인프라·보안(사이버 포함)·신흥테마(데이터센터/AI) 등 장기 테마를 언급. 개별 종목 추천이나 단기 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
So good afternoon everybody. So basically I think people know me much about my songs and all. So I don't have much knowledge about investing. May Be I Know Little More About Songs and Lyrics and Music and All. So I remember one song right now that's a Bollywood song. Life is changing every moment. Shade hai poet kavit hain sunshine zindagi har pal yahan live to the fullest whatever is the time tomorrow may or may not be so we will discuss about this little letter so I have always said that index whatever this indices weather it is Sussex and it is Nifty it is little confusing and may be we can say that it is incomplete so why because Sussex has 30 stocks and Nifty has 50 stocks ok and India has thousands of listed companies 5500 some odd I think at BSE and may be 3000 something odd NSE and the market cap is like 450 lakh crore and 500 lakh crore may be what 4.5 trillion and whatever so out of that Nifty represents Nifty 50 represents 44% of the full market capitalization on the NSE 50 44% Nifty 50 shares 50 shares market capitalization 50 shares is 44% of the market capitalization of entire NSE stocks and Sussex has only 30 stocks as we all know only 30 companies and it represents roughly 35 to 40% of the overall market value.
So all the indices we can say that obviously they represent a broader market capitalization but the picture is somewhere else like there are 15 crore ah unique investors 25 crore demat accounts and whatever and all and I think hardly may be .01% people must be investing in Nifty and Sensex. So can I please ask the audience that are you investing in Nifty stocks and Sussex stocks?
Kindly re your hand please. So They Are Hardly 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Okay Out Of May Be 70 People. So this is what I just want to say that the index does not give a true picture of the economy of the market of the stock market. Rather it represents the mood of retail investors because usually retail investors invest in indices like NSE 50, Nifty 50 and Sussex 30.
I will give you one data but whenever we talk about like suppose if somebody will ask you, arre market kaisa hai, then immediately if the index is 500 points up, I will say, market achha hai, yaar, index is 500 points up, index is 2000 points up, if the index is down, then market kaisa hai, yaar, market bahut bad hai, index 2000 points down.
But hardly few people invest in all these indices so it is just for the sake of it, when someone meets them they say, arre ab kaisa hai, how are you, so this is what it is, the pattern has become, how is the market, so the market goes up and down but it does not depend on the index, I will give you two data.
This is data published by 361 in Economic Times and it says that over the five Years from Sept 202 to Aug 2026 NFT 50 delivered around 7.1% annualized return NFT 50 But what happened inside the Nifty is more interesting Just 13 stocks out of 50 stocks in NiFi Just 13 stocks representing around 33.7% Almost 1/3rd that is of the NiFi weight Collectively delivered a negative return of 0.8% So 33.7% Nifty stocks did not perform on the country they gave you a negative return and according to the same report.
If the 13 laggards were excluded from the Nifty 50, then it would have delivered around 11% annualized return. Just imagine if these 33% stocks were not in the Nifty 50, then the scenario would have changed dramatically. The article also says that during this period Nifty 50 index funds returned around 8.3% annually compared to 11.4% for large cap active funds.
So even if Nifty with in the with in the Nifty itself different stocks, different portfolio and different kind of returns. Now I will give you another data which was published in Hindu Business Line. That says that and they analyzed 2867 stocks over a three year period and the results were really interesting more than 40% of the stocks actually lost money from 2867 stocks 40% lost money in the market in the last three years and 21% of the stocks at the other extreme around 21% of the stocks doubled just imagine 21% of the stocks doubled and more and with in this 21% roughly 10% of the stocks, 10% of all the stocks tripled and more.
So the remaining roughly 39% gave positive returns but less than doubled. So just imagine same country, same economy, same stock market but different results. So what does it say that just discussing about indices and just banking on Nifty and just investing into a large cap does not create wealth for any investor.
So this is what data has proven that. I will give you I will tell you even my stocks and the same thing is happening in the mid cap and small cap also. I will give you a data of my own stocks like suppose I must be holding 25 to 30 stocks in listed entity out of two 30 shares my major five shares major five shares that could be the may be I think one third of my portfolio did not perform at all in last three years and may be even in last four years did not perform zero return may be two stocks I think may be two stocks are down by 20% from my cost price in last three four years.
So but luckily there are some stocks which actually outperform the market, outperform the index, outperform mid cap index and they went up by for example after Covid I bought one stock, luckily it went up from its low in 202 it went up around 40 times. So this is what I could save my bouquet. I can save my face you can say that even one stock gives you this kind of return then the scenario of entire voc will change dramatically and this is how it happened another stock gives me ah 100 times return around 98 99 times return I can buy a stock the name like Neuland Laboratories I had bought during Covid at ₹250 now it is ₹2000 so it is around 90 times so 95 times not percent but other stocks are down by say 10 20% and did not perform but overall portfolio even then it looks ok ok you know so this is what message this market gives that you can only make money in this market if you will be stock specific you know just if you follow the herd mentality and just you follow the index and just follow the ETF it is not going to create wealth for you.
So for that I have ah you know I have I am following one principle as I said that two stocks went up 30-40 times one one stock and one went up by around 90 times and all. So how did it happen? So I am following one principle most of you must be knowing about that. That is called smile. So that is my principle of investing and stock market and Smile S stands for small in size.
Usually I invest in micro cap and whatever you call it small cap in the sector in that particular sector I invest in small size because I think that if a 500 crore company, 500 crore turnover company could be little easy if the management is you know ah knowledgeable and experienced and honest and if the product is ah really ah a sector is growing then a 500 crore company can become a 5000 crore company may be in 10 years or five years and 10 years but a 500 crore company, 5 lakh crore company to become 10 lakh crore in five years and 10 years is a little difficult not impossible but a little difficult so that is how actually that is why I decided for myself that I would invest in this small cap, small in size and medium in experience because I always believe that jokey is more important Then the horse.
Horse is also nice but the driver is more expensive than your car. Even if you are driving a Lamborghini and whatever car you are driving and if your driver is not experienced then maybe your car will meet with an accident and even if your car is not that good not compared to Lamborghini and all but if your driver is talented and experienced.
So may be at least you will reach your destination may be little late or little early or whatever. So medium and experience is varied and I usually invest in a company where management is into the same business and in this business for at least 10-15 years. Because during the time of 10, 15 years management must have seen many ups and downs.
From the company perspective and may be from the economy perspective may be from the political perspective may be from the geopolitical perspective so he must have learned he and she must have learned a lot of lessons so that experience is very important and so that is a mi I stands for medium and experience and large stands for large in aspiration because I always believe that we shareholders like suppose we are holding a fraction of the capital fraction of the company number of shares wise if the management does not become a millionaire to a billionaire we will not become a ah lakhpati to crorepati we will not become you know so that is why that aspiration has to be their management should always talk about growth growth and growth like he should never be satisfied that I have become from 500 crore I become 2000 crore company in five years now what should I why should I work let me play golf and let me do this and that and that is also important but at least that fire in the belly should always be there in the so that large in aspiration is very important and last it stands for extra large market potential even if you are a marathoner but the pitch is like if you are a very good cricketer but the pitch is not good if you are a marathoner but the road is not there so you won't be able to show your expertise or you won't be able to show your performance so for that tale in the sector is varied when the ship and the like wind flow in the same direction that is how it moves faster so that extra large market potential is varied so all these things are varied so I think that an investor can really create wealth if they look For the specific stock not just the sector but in the sector also there are many stocks.
So that is very ah and for that ah whatever I have discussed so far that is a past. Now what is what I am personally doing? I am not managing any money. I am not advising. I am not a portfolio manager. I am not a fund manager. nothing. I'm just doing for my own you no thing. So, I have ah I have thought and I have given an acronym to this rise.
So, This Is My Now Future Investments Is Happening In This Rise Sector. Here are stands for renewable energy because I think a this is the oxygen to like ah what a sunlight is like oxygen to the economy. The Way It Is Oxygen is important to the body. Similarly, sunlight is very important. We can see that what is happening whenever there is some geopolitical issues happening and crude goes above to 105 and this market is also lacklustre for last two years because of these geopolitical issues and all.
And so all this fuel fossil fuel and this crude and all this is working like a vein in the body for any economy and 85% of our fuel we are importing. So I think we are already behind and I always say on various platforms that God has given like crude to Gulf countries and all and for in last 50 years they made prosperity out of that crude and same God gave us sunlight you know nature gave sunlight but we could not take advantage of it we could not monetize it ah the way China did and the way now Gulf is also doing but specially China is China I always say that China is the first wonder of 21st century we should all inspite of whatever enmity and all we should all learn from China what really they did in 20 years 25 years that is remarkable it is like a fiction story we used to read parikatha jisko bolet hain this is what China is doing in every futuristic technology.
So R stands for renewal technology that does not mean stock prices could be expensive. This is a theme I am just discussing. I am not saying that we should buy all the shares in this category because the stock may not perform for two years. But the theme is going to remain there for 10-15 years. This is what I feel.
And I stands for infrastructure. I think we are lagging behind in infrastructure, you compare yourself with any developed country. We are far behind in India, we have just 150 airports. Just Imagine Only 150 and May Be 160 Airport. And there is no comparison with us but USA has 14,000 airports just imagine small and big private and whatever it is.
So that is not a comparison but just to understand that how far we are in all this infra creation creation of infrastructure in road network may be we are the may be the second largest after USA I think and USA China and India is the second largest. But still there are lots of infrastructure we have to set up either it is a power plant and wether it is ah dams and tunnels and like bullet trains now we are we have we have awakened up now things are happening but this infrastructure spending will keep on happening may be for last for the next 10-15 years.
So it will give us a very big opportunity in infrastructure but there is a problem with indirect infrastructure companies because now most of the investments are made by the government, state government and central government and there is a payment problem, people or companies are not getting payment on time and so there is a problem in this but the sector will keep on growing because there are hardly few companies left in India which can really execute bigger projects between 2002 and 2007 when the economy was booming and the stock market was also booming that time there were may be 100 to 200 companies which came into infrastructure finally all got most of them 90% of them got defaulted and vanished.
So there are Harley Few Company like Larson to Bro. That is the biggest company but there are very few companies are still surviving in this infrastructure space without them India cannot prosper. So I think that's again very ah infrastructure space. And as we all know that because of the data center and all power shortages are bound to come in the future.
So we need to set up all these power plants weather it thermal weather it now coal is again in the fashion now China is the biggest coal consumer earlier whatever green this and that all those things are gone behind. So& S Stands For Security. So that is also very everyday I am getting offers from defence companies, startup defence companies, not listed defence companies, defence companies are listed defence companies are very expensive, according to me that does not mean that there is no opportunity, I usually don't buy those shares.
So I think security is again a very big business because now government is also ah you know ah for making India and all this theme ah government is running and they are supporting all this infrastructure this defense company. So I am seeing a lot of traction in ah defense companies in the private space which are going to be listed.
So and security also means it is not only physical security your border security. I am also more bullish on cyber security which is also a part of security. What I have spoken to many people many companies. I have understood that future war will happen through cyber security only. So, now the ah the you can see the trend of the war has changed.
Now drones are playing a bigger role in a war. So that is also a part of security. Similarly, cyber security is also going to be very important for any country. I Was Told Once I Visited One Experience Center of a Cyber Security Company. I was told suppose if any country can have access to our cyber can have access to our power plant.
For example, our airport control system through security bridge. So our entire air like airport can come to a halt and same can happen with power plant. Same thing can happen with any big companies also. The entire plant having 1 lakh employees and all could come to a halt if security breaches are there.
So that has become a variant part cybersecurity and E stands for emerging theme. So it comes down to it is data center, it is AI, and you call it the cable industry and all the coming to data center and whatever emerging themes are there, even drone is also an emerging theme. So I think these are the future of India.
I think they are going to do well and as an investor I am also focusing on these companies and so the biggest thing is that you must have notice that now these days the stocks which are performing I had never heard the name of those stocks the company got listed in and in the last two years, three years and one year they have given a 500% return, 600% return many IPOs have gone down 20, 30, 40% many IPOs have doubled and given you four times five times return and the name you might have not heard also so keep your eyes open invest like a bull sit like a bear and watch like an eagle things are changing that is why I said ki har ghadi badal rahi hai roop zindagi chaanv hai kavi kavi har pal yahan jeevaar jiyo to things are changing you should also change thank you very much ji
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