Is it Finally Time to Take Profits and Sell Nvidia Stock? | NVDA Stock Analysis

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엔비디아는 인텔·알파벳·AMD 등 경쟁 심화에도 실적·매출이 폭증 중이며, 경쟁은 예상된 현상이다. 주가는 1월 이후 상승했으나 포워드 PER은 크게 오르지 않았다. 변동성이 큰 고위험 주식이지만 Top 25 매수 추천을 유지하며 익절 시점이라는 판단은 하지 않는다.

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01. all right so I recommended Nvidia stock late last year and if you follow that recommendation you've made a great deal of money on that investment so is it finally time to take profits in Nvidia stock sell and move your assets somewhere else I'll answer that question in this video of course competition is ramping up taking on Nvidia in the AI chip industry so it might be a good time to consider taking profits but let's take a closer look and answer if it's certainly time to take profit I mentioned that competition is ramping up and one of the companies that's trying to take market share away from Nvidia is Intel and Intel recently announced its gudy 3 chip and they said that it matches and exceeds matches and exceeds nvidia's h100 AI processor when it comes to to training and deploying generative AI models the h100 is one of nvidia's most popular chips so if Intel's chip takes market share away from that that could be a big deal for NVIDIA powering AI applications for some of the world's biggest tech companies from Microsoft to Google now according to Intel the gudi 3 is 40% more power efficient with 50% faster influencing than nvidia's h100 training refers to the time it takes to train an AI Foundation model like open AIS chat GPT while inferencing is for models and apps Now intel says the gy 3 is up to 1.7 times faster when training common large language models so if this new chip is as Intel says it is it could take market share away from Nvidia more likely however in my opinion is that there a market large enough for Intel and Nvidia to coexist of course remember when I was talking about Nvidia last year when its sales and profits began to Surge I highlighted that competition is coming there's never a situation where a company delivers the kind of growth that Nvidia delivers right I've got the chart here look at how its revenue and operating profit absolutely explode in 2023 and now early 2024 there is never a situation like this that does not attract competition competition sees this and says we want a piece of that action we're just not going to let Nvidia keep this entire Market to itself when competition sees someone else making this kind of profit they're going to want to come in even if they're not as good as Nvidia even if they're not as good as Nvidia they're still going to get a piece of the pie because customers for nvidia's products do not want to rely exclusively on Nvidia so they welcome competition like Intel and I'm also going to mention another competitor here alphabet coming out with its own chips and they encourage that as well as AMD and they give them market share because they don't want to rely exclusively on Nvidia it gives Nvidia too much Market power then Nvidia can continue increasing prices and these customers have to pay because there's no alternative so they want to give these others some business keep them alive right keep them innovating adding new chips so that they have someone else to go to a backup in case Nvidia starts to demand too much too high of a price and so they're going to take market share that was inevitable I was talking about that 6 months ago nine months ago when nvidia's revenue and profit started to soar that's always going to be the case just like if you ever see me make a video that gets a lot of views and it gets a lot of time watched the competition's going to copy it right they're looking around they're looking at titles they're looking at videos that get good views and they want to copy that format because they see it working and they want to copy it right competition always always comes in whenever one business one Creator or one anything achieve success in any way shape or form so this is to be expected and I was talking about this 6 9 12 months ago investors should have been ready for this and if you following my channel you have indeed been ready for this situation now at the companies at alphabet's annual cloud computing conference in Las Vegas today the cloud computing chief executive Thomas curian showed off Google's most powerful AI model Gemini which can be used to create advertisement ward off cyber security threats and spin up short videos and podcasts but more importantly to Nvidia the company also touted a new chip designed to handle the massive Ai workloads and control the associated Rising costs now this has also been around for a very long time when a business relies on a single supplier it sometimes does a little bit of production of its own just in case the supplier again becomes unreliable or raises prices they know they have a backup and this backup can be a threat that alphabet can use against Nvidia and say if you don't keep prices down if you don't keep terms the way we like it we're going to produce more of our in-house chip we don't care that it's not as effective as yours we're not going to let you tell us and command us and demand higher prices and not give us the terms that we're looking for so this has always been the case alphabet's developing its own chip Amazon is also developing its own chip Still Still it seems like they significant ly prefer nvidia's chips because nvidia's chips are that much better nvidia's chips are that much better they still go with Nvidia Nvidia is selling as many chips as it can produce it's got more demand than it has Supply and so some of these participants coming in and taking some market share they're likely going to take that market share that is not served by Nvidia right now at least in the near term longer term idious chips are arguably at least one step ahead of the competition some say they are at least two or three steps ahead of the competition so these newer chips coming into the market it should not have been expected that Nvidia was going to keep this Market all to itself as of the latest reports I've seen Nvidia has something like 80% market share of the current AI GPU chip market now that was unsustainable I didn't expect that to last very long and so I'm not alarmed Med with this comp competitive pressure still Nvidia stock price from January alone is up from around $500 per share to $852 per share and the stock price has experienced some headwinds down from its highs in late March so investors are asking what's going on here is it a buy the dip opportunity or is it time to take profits if you were in the stock I mentioned at the top of the video I had recommended Nvidia stock you know late December as one of my top stocks to buy in 2024 so investors are curious about that but even though the stock price has increased the valuation has not increased by all that much it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 28.33% empty increase in stock price like some other companies that had experienced increases in stock price without the subsequent increase in revenue and profitability and cash flow one AI stock I recently mentioned that did that was Big Bear AI it's a smaller company but the stock price about a month and a half ago surged on the back of AI enthusiasm but the company hadn't delivered the kind of Revenue profit and cash flow growth that Nvidia had delivered Ed it was just based on enthusiasm and so that stock price has fell dramatically since that boom Nvidia is different nvidia's stock price has boomed but so has its profit now that's not to say that nvidia's stock price is not going to fall there's certainly a chance of that happening and Nvidia has been a volatile stock over several years has experien violent price movements so this is not a stock for investors that are not will willing to take some risk it is an above average risk stock so understand that to be sure so considering the valuation hasn't changed all that much and the company's revenue and profits are still exponentially growing quickly and competition is likely to take some share of the market that was to be expected but there isn't evidence that any of these companies so far would prefer any other chips in the market other than Nvidia chip so to answer the question you know the last time I updated Nvidia stock was on March 31st and I reiterated the recommendation that Nvidia belonged as a top 25 stock to buy in 2024 and one of my top 10 growth stocks in 2024 so is it time to take profits I mean you could but in terms of the actual valuation of the stock I'm not changing the recommendation I'm keeping it rated as a top stock to buy and a top 25 stock to buy today given the company's excellent performance if you've made a lot of money and you want to take some profits that's fine too but in terms of my recommendation I'm not downgrading I'm not suggesting it's time to take profits I'm reiterating my recommendation that Nvidia is an excellent stock it's one of my top stocks to buy still in 2024