저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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Bill Ackman가 2020년 3월 기업 신용 스프레드 확대에 건 베팅으로 큰 수익을 냈는데, 이번에도 유사한 기업채 베팅을 다시 하고 있다는 소식을 전하는 영상이다. 배경: 3월 당시 Ackman은 코로나 확산에 따른 기업 디폴트 증가를 예상해 신용 스프레드 확대에 베팅했고, 약 2,700만 달러 보험성 투자로 약 26억 달러 수익을 냈다고 소개된다. 새 베팅: 이번에는 규모가 약 1/3 수준이며 월 약 800만 달러를 지불하는 구조로, 연간 약 1억 달러 규모다. 펀드 운용자산(약 110억 달러) 대비 연 1% 수준이라고 강조한다. 베팅 근거: 대선 후 정책 변화, 독감 시즌 진입, 방역 피로감 누적, 백신 조기 출시 기대로 사람들이 경계를 풀고 봉쇄 재확산과 기업 디폴트가 발생할 수 있다는 시나리오다. 투자 방법: 개인 투자자는 HYG(하이일드 회사채 ETF) 풋옵션이나 LQD 풋옵션 매수로 유사한 노출을 가질 수 있다고 언급한다. 리스크·주의: Ackman의 베팅은 펀드 전체에서 작은 비중이므로 개인이 과도하게 따라 하지 말 것을 당부한다. 봉쇄가 없으면 손실 가능성도 있다. 출연자 전망: 채널 운영자는 Ackman이 틀리기를 바라지만 가능성이 충분해 주목해야 한다는 입장이다. 연관 유료 커뮤니티 정보도 소개한다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock compounders brad here so bill ackman is at it again uh most of us heard i'm sure about one of the greatest trades in modern history back in march when bill ackman bet against uh corporate debt you know he bet that corporate defaults corporate debt defaults would rise uh he saw what was happening with the pandemic you know in china and thought you know this is not going to be good for the u.s not going to be good for businesses in the u.s and he made out like a bandit on that bet i think he spent about 27 million on insurance against the the credit spread widening and it paid off in the first month so he put about 27 million down and it paid off 2.6 billion so it was almost a hundred x gain uh from that bet against corporate credit and it turns out he's basically making the same bet now okay that he made back in march uh you know he sees we're going to have a new president in the white house we're coming into flu season you know people have been dealing with this pandemic for so long there's a bit of fatigue in terms of you know just being strict about um you know basically being smart about not spreading things around and sheltering in place and all of that stuff and with this news that there's a potential you know vaccine coming out sooner than a lot of people expected uh you know ackman is looking at all this and thinking all right people are going to loosen up here and this thing's going to get out of control and so you know he's making this bet that there's going to be a shutdown businesses are going to be defaulting and there will be this widening spread in corporate the corporate credit markets so and he says here i hope we lose money on this next hedge back in march you know initially he thought well maybe we should sell off a bunch of our stocks a bunch of our equity positions uh but that you know he he really didn't want to do that so he decided well what if i just make a small bet that things go south and i can kind of make a a very high very asymmetric reward to risk bet and then i don't have to do anything with with the equity positions i can really capitalize on this corporate credit debt so corporate credit debt bet um so basically the the new bet that he's making is about a third of the size so uh he's gonna be paying about eight million dollars each month um and obviously the payout depends on how bad this gets how big the spread gets um you know if it's similar to last time it's uh last time he made a hundred x so again it would it would be similar it'd be a hundred x but he's he's making about a third the size of a bet so you know eight eight million a month he stands to make you know 800 million if this thing acts very quickly like it did in march if he times it very well so keep in mind guys you know eight million a month so he's he's betting a hundred million a year right that's kind of what what he's on the hook for a hundred million a year the size of pershing square there's like 11 billion assets under management so you know it's only one percent of the fund each year that he's committed to with this bet so keep that in mind if you get excited about this thinking oh man i i missed it in march and i'm gonna back up the truck for this one i need to bet against you know corporate corporate debt uh be careful with that keep him you gotta keep it in perspective he's only betting kind of one percent of the fund annually on this play um so i'm going to link to this article it kind of gives a good overview but you guys my favorite resource uh for for going into this is corner of berkshire in fairfax there's a thread on it that just popped up bill ackman betting lightning strikes twice okay and there's you know about 20 comments on this really smart investors so if you guys want to explore you know how to take advantage of a potential betting against this corporate debt there's some good ideas in here in corner of berkshire and fairfax it is a membership site it costs 23 dollars u.s 30 canadian i believe for a lifetime membership so you know it's it's pretty reasonable uh really good stuff in here uh there is one play uh on this that i've been researching and that is um buying puts on h y g so hyg is an etf for for corporate bonds corporate high-yield bonds and buying puts on hyg would mean i would be betting against hyg um so that's that's one potential way for retail investors uh to get in on this action um because you know like like this guy says here where does he say um you know it's difficult to do what ackman is doing unless you you run a big fund right so the way for retail investors to do it potentially buying puts on lqd or hyg there's a few other things in here that you can explore but definitely check out the conversation on corner of berkshire and fairfax but it's really interesting guys obviously um ackman got a lot of well he got a lot of flack but he got a lot of attention from from this bat back in march that things would go into lockdown that a lot of businesses would struggle because you know businesses are fragile if if you're forced to shut a business down for even a few weeks you know a lot of these businesses have very tight margins and it's very difficult for many of them to survive even without a couple weeks of revenue so you know like i said hopefully ackman is wrong on this one um hopefully we're going to be able to coast through the fall and winter um you know in the u.s without any major disruptions but ackman thinks the likelihood is high enough that he wants to have some bet in place where if things tank you know at least he can see some upside from that in the portfolio so just wanted to bring this to everyone's attention that's something i'm going to be watching closely like i said i will link to the financial times article in the description um but yeah let me know what you guys think of this new bet by bill ackman can he do it twice can he do it twice anyway guys just wanted to share that let me know what you think and i will see you in the next video take care
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