저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주택시장 호조는 위험이 아니라 구조적(장기) 성장 스토리이므로 연준의 금리 인상으로 경기를 식히는 것은 바람직하지 않다는 주장. 주택 가격이 사상 최고치를 찍는 뉴스가 부정적으로 보도되는 현상을 비판하며, 주택 산업은 경제에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 좋은 일자리를 만든다고 주장. 톨브라더스 CEO Doug Yearley 인용: 지난 10년간 약 600만 호가 덜 지어졌고, 수요 회복에 수년이 걸릴 것으로 봄. 밀레니얼 7300만 명이 30대에 진입해 주택을 구매하는 수요는 경기순환이 아닌 구조적(secular) 수요라고 주장. Lennar의 Stuart Miller 인용: 신규 주택 공급이 수요를 따라가지 못하며 공급 부족이 당분간 지속될 것이라고 주장. 2006년 금융위기와 비교하며 현재는 대출 기준이 엄격하고(no-doc, ninja 대출 부재) 구매자 재무 상태가 건전하므로 다르다고 주장. 코로나19 이후 재택근무로 보이즈(아이다호), 오스틴(텍사스), 플로리다 등 지역 주택 수요가 급증하고 있다고 언급. 연준이 금리를 올려 주택시장을 식히는 것은 경제에 해가 되며, 주택 건설사와 은행은 재무적으로 견실하다고 평가. 리스크: 금리 인상 시 주택 가격 하락과 주택건설주 하락 가능성은 언급되나 본인은 이를 부정적 시나리오로 봄.
다듬은 글
p every day it seems we get another piece of extraordinary economic news and every day it's presented as something dangerous something negative whoa something that will cause real problems down the road rather than greeting good news with wonder or maybe even jubilation we respond with fear because we've forgotten what a rapidly expanding economy looks like maybe some people are too young that includes days like today where the dow slipped 71 points has to be ticked down 0.11 percent nasdaq gained 0.13 so i'm going to give you the classic example okay lead story in the digital edition of the wall street journal when i woke up today u.s existing home prices hit record high in may all right now this piece like so many others reads like exhibit a in the case against jay pal our valiant fed chairman who's trying to hold off on raising rates in order to boost job growth even as demand is constrained by supply which makes overall sales look weak high prices weak sales recipe for disaster now wait one second first pal recognizes that a booming housing market is actually a good thing not a bad thing this is an industry that gives people good paying jobs even if they don't have a computer science degree from stanford pluses i never get tired of telling you housing punches above its weight in the economy so you'd much rather have a rising housing market which about 10 percent of the economy than a faltering housing market yet when you read these headlines about home prices hitting new records they're uh they're almost always written like an arbiter of bad times like the economy must be overheating because of housing so is this industry the enemy when it's good something that must be tamed unless we end up with weimar republic style hyperinflation this time with wheelbarrows full of greenbacks and not deutschmarks i think this is a good time to give you some context beyond the headlines because in the context what's happening in the housing market is actually healthy not toxic and i say that knowing that kb homes was just reported disappointed some who are looking for better numbers for a clear head of what's going on i'm turning to doug yearly the ceo of toll brothers not just because he runs a giant home builder but because i've known him for years and when things aren't good he's always been forthcoming about it as has his previous boss bob told not that long ago doug through an important and incredibly enlightening analyst day you can read it online to explain why the housing market's growth might actually be longer term than you think rather than a cyclical boom and bust kind of growth that we've all come to expect listen to this over the last decade six million less houses were built six million less houses were built than in the previous four decades going back to the 1970s he goes on it's possible that housing is just beginning to recover given that we have many more people in this country than when we were building more homes end quote useless conclusion quote it's going to take a long time for this pent up demand to be satisfied we think it's going to take years before we ever get back to anything close to the equilibrium that we had seen in a bunch of the prior decades that's right you know we used to build two million homes a year when we have half the population now we're doing half that with twice the population now if you think that yearly's just talking this book and i get that i am sure the skeptic's out there doing that why don't we do this why don't we go to stuart miller he's the straight shooting executive chairman of lenoir another exec i've known since he was a young man and i helped manage his brilliant father's finances when i was at goldman sachs miller tells us quote new home construction cannot ramp quickly enough to fill the void of the production deficit that has persisted over the past decade end quote he continues quote while some question whether that deficit is 1 million homes or 5.5 million homes the bottom line is that supply is short and it's likely to remain that way for some time to come end quote that's right we literally can't build new homes fast enough to meet the demand now let's say okay let's do what everybody tells me has to happen if j-pal raises interest rates that's not going to create more homes even it might push down housing prices by of course destroying demand then again it could also make housing less affordable by driving up mortgage rates hobson's choice to make but a lot of that demand might be indestructible if we just give it some time it'll be good it'll be a good thing as holes doug yearly lays out quote there are 73 million millennials who are now entering their 30s and they're buying homes end quote now this key intellectual demographic detail always gets left out of stories about the red hot housing market and that's just plain misleading to do so because it means the demand may be and here's a word no one ever wants to use with housing but i'm going to use it the demand may be secular not cyclical the fed can try to slam the brakes on the economy by raising interest rates but millennials have been stuck living in their parents basements for years after decade getting over the financial questions they've finally got the capital to buy their own homes why would we want to put a stock to them buying or their own homes and all the good things that happen in the economy when housing homes because of the multiplier effective housing speaking of the financial crisis though we all remember the last time we had a red hot housing market in 2006 right before the worst economic meltdown since the great depression and yeah that red hot housing market absolutely led to the financial crisis it was the it was the epicenter but 2021 is not 2006.
the problem back then was that many people were trading homes like they trade stocks on robinhood except with even more leverage our regulators were asleep at the wheel rather than trying to enforce lending standards the federal reserve decided to cool down the housing market by raising interest rates 17 times in a row in rapid succession now how'd that work out well great yeah cool the housing market it crushed everything i don't want to repeat the mistakes that led to the financial crisis no i i i got a show i got to speak about this stuff by the end of the last housing boom we saw people buying houses with no money down at a fraction of what the loan to value the worst stuff was like they're buying them down getting the down buying them and then getting the down payment from a home equity loan sometimes with no documentation needed sometimes with wildly overvalued numbers at the time the home builders told us all these things were happening including especially toll the company even tried to limit speculative buying at the cost of lower sales because it saw what was happening but this time none of that stuff is going on lending standards are much more stringent there are no more no doc loans no more ninja loans it's actually very hard to get a mortgage even though rates are low again i think that points to constrained but secular growth for the first time in the history of the u.s housing market finally these saturday articles about how the housing market's too hot always seem to leave out the most salient part of the story coveted 19.
this stuff gets covered like the economy's still normal but there's nothing normal about this situation people become untethered from their white-collar jobs they're in the desk that they used to slay that so now they can work remotely they're fleeing the cities to work in places like boise yes boise idaho in many ways boise is the perfect microcosm for this event ever since may of last year there's been a massive exodus of people moving from the west coast to idaho creating one of the hottest real estate markets in the country all documented in the toll analyst day same thing has been happening in austin austin texas which was already on fire even before the pandemic it's got the hottest housing market in this country which could also beat the world we're also seeing insane levels of demand from several markets in florida this is covet 19 and some tax situations could all these markets be cooled down by the fed absolutely but what the heck would that accomplish when oil prices are on fire we build more houses which creates more jobs all over the country when home prices fall those jobs vanish why do so many reporters act like hurting the economy is a good thing unlike the lead up to the great recession home buyers are actually solvent right now with excellent credit strong stock portfolios the home builders they're in good shape the banks are strong sometimes good news is good news if you try to overthink it you're going to miss out some huge moves bottom line the next time you read a story about how we should be alarmed that the economy is doing so well think about the alternative would you rather see a headline like housing prices plummet as market weakens from higher rates or pile to home builders drop dead call me crazy but i think that sounds like the wrong way to g
Comments 0