저자: RayDalio인용·내레이터분석 · 외국인
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달리오 인용: 18개월 내 경기침체와 부채조정 예상, 연준은 인플레와 금리 인상 사이 딜레마, 달러 가치 훼손 시 금이 핵심 자산. 포트폴리오 10~15% 금 배분 권장. 지정학 분쟁·중앙은행 금 매수(2024 상반기 483톤)·트럼프 관세/재정적자 정책이 2025년 금 가격 상승 요인. 과거 우크라이나 사태 시 금 급등 후 조정 사례 언급.
다듬은 글
now let's dive into three key factors active geopolitical conflicts demand and purchases of gold by some central banks and the influence of the new US Presidential Administration headed by the already elected president Donald Trump these factors will be instrumental in influencing the price of gold going into 2025 how prepared are we for what lies ahead join us as we look at what to expect from this essential metal in a challenging Global landscape renowned investor Ray doio made clear in a headline published by the Jerusalem Post the importance of gold in the coming years if you don't own gold you don't know history or economics this blunt statement from Ray doio founder of Bridgewater Associates is more than just a warning it's a wakeup call according to Dalo gold is not just an investment asset it is also insurance against uncertainty at a time when economic change seems inevitable for those seeking to understand how the price of gold might evolve in the coming years Doo's warning offers crucial clues in a recent interview Dalo predicts that in the next 18 months we will face an economic recession and an unprecedented debt adjustment but here is the crucial thing according to doio this adjustment will make gold take a leading role in investment portfolios in his view the Federal Reserve will find itself at a Crossroads where it must choose between printing more money thereby increasing inflation or raising interest rates with the risk of further stifling economic growth any of these decisions have profound implications for the value of the dollar and it is in this context that gold could experience a considerable boost in its price towards 2025 why is this metal so relevant right now Dalo emphasizes that gold is not only a hedge against inflation but also a store of value in times of currency devaluation the billionaire recommends allocating at least 10 to 15% of portfolios to Gold anticipating a scenario in which the dollar and other Fiat currencies could lose purchasing power for doio this is critical Because he believes we are entering the Final Phase of a long-term debt cycle a cycle that could severely impact traditional assets and instead boost Safe Haven assets like gold and here comes something that is fundamental Doo stresses that we are witnessing an economic war that will probably redraw power structures in the coming years the high levels of debt in the United States and Europe combined with the growing influence of China are a clear indication that the global economic balance is changing and that change is accelerating this coupled with ongoing social and economic conflict is what could make gold the key asset to protect and multiply capital in the context of 202 five and Beyond but Dio's analysis doesn't stop at economic numbers it also points to Social and geopolitical factors that can directly influence the value of gold the ever increasing inequality of wealth and growing class conflicts between the Hales and the have-nots can trigger an even more volatile environment something that has historically been fertile ground for gold in this sense the metal is not just a financial asset but a response to the fragility that many investors see in the current system and finally let's think about what's happening globally War conflicts in various regions are exacerbating uncertainty and increasing demand for Safe Haven assets like other historical events current War tensions may become a catalyst for the price of gold as we explore how these scenarios could evolve gold is emerging as one of the safest Assets in times of instability now let's dive into three key factors active geopolitical conflicts demand and purchases of gold by some central banks and the influence of the new US Presidential Administration headed by by the already elected president Donald Trump these factors will be instrumental in influencing the price of gold going into 2025 how prepared are we for what lies ahead join us as we look at what to expect from this essential metal in a challenging Global landscape first key Point price Behavior according to the war conflicts that are currently active in the world gold has always played a leading role in times of war and I am going to tell you an anecdote that makes it clear why it is well known that in World War II the Nazis stole gold and deposited it in Swiss banks and recently the British government published a report indicating that the gold stolen by the Nazis was worth almost $7 billion this reflects how physical gold in times of war is one of the most valued Metals both by the good guys and the villains of the story nowadays it is difficult for some investors to back up their wealth in physical gold but if they have the necessary knowledge they can access shares and gold mining companies gold Futures contracts and a series of derivatives offered by the financial markets that have the precious metal as their underlying asset at the time of researching this report the price of gold has peaked at $2,787 per ounce knowing this let's look at how gold has reacted to the outbreaks of the most recent and still active War conflicts Ukraine crisis sends gold and oil prices soaring in this chart we can see how with the outbreak of conflict gold rose from around $1,890 reaching a peak of $1,989 on March 7th within days it had risen by $100 per ounce as investors sought protection from fears of a prolonged conflict in Europe This reaction has proven to be typical in times of War when gold is perceived as a safe haven in the midst of the storm but here is one more interesting detail the price of gold maintained its momentum during those months and was again close to the highs reaching $974 per ounce on April 11th of that same year however shortly after we saw a correction that led to it losing ground falling to $642 in the following months reaching the lowest prices of 2022 oil and gold prices rise due to tensions in the Middle East in this other graph we observe a highlighted box that encloses the behavior of the gold price from April 1st to the date of This research and why is this date so important because April 1st 2024 was the day Israel launched the first attack that would Mark the beginning of an escalation of tension against Iran targeting the Iranian Embassy in Damascus just a few days later on April 13th Iran responded with a Counterattack on the state of Israel escalating the conflict however there is something we cannot ignore here if we analyze the chart of those days the price of gold does not reflect a significant jump in immediate reaction instead we noticed that gold was already in an upward movement before April 13th why is this the reason could be that sometimes these attacks do not surprise the financial System since certain movements are usually anticipated or even discounted by these investors if they somehow know that the parties have made agreements to carry out the attacks and thus lead to a controlled escalation but let's look at the bigger picture although the conflict is still active the escalation of tensions through attacks and counterattacks has caused the price of gold days after the first clashes to embark on an upward rally since then gold has risen from $2,232 to reach a high of $2,786 a sustained Trend that we can see marked on the chart now there is another fundamental element that we cannot ignore and that is that although these War events provide fuel for the precious metal to increase in value the peaks in times of conflict can be temporary as we saw in the case of Ukraine when events begin to mature and the markets perceive a possible deescalation or agreement the price of gold can suffer a severe correction this leaves us with a lesson the price of gold responds not only to the conflict itself but also to expectations of resolution so analyzing it in conjunction with other factors is essential to understand the future Direction it could take which brings us to the following points apart from the geopolitical tensions and human damage that Wars cause we must not lose sight of the fact that most of them are financed with very high debt issues and in recent years it must be considered that the funds destined to support Ukraine's resistance to Russia represent a significant amount of money injected into the system this contributes to putting pressure on the value of the dollar and increasing inflation don't forget this the United States has to constantly increase debt ceiling in order to sustain its economy and public spending which means that its currency is constantly devalued and the main price of gold in the markets is in dollars which means that a weak dollar implies higher gold prices in the medium and long term knowing this data a key factor to take into account when projecting the behavior of the gold price towards the year 2025 will be the situation in each of these conflicts if they escalate and the aggressions between the countries involved only increase it is most likely that the price of gold will do the same and from the elements that we can see it seems that we will have a 2025 where the war conflicts will continue to be very active there is something that is even more serious and although it is not directly part of this point that we are analyzing we believe that it is also key to take it into account and it is what the market analyst Alberto itala has commented on the negocio TV channel in Spanish this gentleman has mentioned that in this year 2024 there has been a suspicious early election in most countries of the world let us listen to his theory for for in that sense hedging yourself in advance with gold in an Investment Portfolio would be a smart thing to do as Ray doio also Expresses in the words we already quoted if you don't have gold you don't know history or economics Ray Doo the second key point to determine what the gold price can do in 2025 is the purchase and demand of gold by central banks let's check it out something unprecedented is happening in financial markets and few see its true extent central banks and the most influential economies have accumulated gold at record levels adding 483 net tons in the first half of 2024 alone surpassing the records of 2023 this movement has profound implications and is key to understanding where the price of gold may go in 2025 but here it gets more interesting consider this one of the main players in this movement has been China for 18 consecutive months The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves ACC accumulating 30 tons in the first half of this year alone however in May and June of 2024 China stopped and reported no new purchases this pause caused a wave of panic in the market leading to massive sales of gold and a temporary correction in its price what does this mean according to some analysts this move could have been intentional a move by China to control prices and continue accumulating gold unofficially avoiding drawing attention to itself this data suggests that the figures reported by The People's Bank of China may not reflect its true reserves and it's not just China turkey and India have also increased their reserves India for example has added 37 tons of gold in the first 6 months of 2024 more than double the 16 tons acquired in the same period last year this increase is telling as India has been buying gold steadily since 2017 reaching a cumulative total of more than 831 tons but why so much interest in gold now an Indian Economist explained that the US dollar is no longer viewed with the same reliability and that the push towards gold is a strategy to diversify and protect against the volatility of the currency markets now what comes next is even more surprising Russia another big player in this game has decided to decouple its reserves from the Global Financial system in a bold move Russia will use its oil revenues to purchase large amounts of gold reaching a target of 8.2 billion rubles a day in Gold purchases during the month of September what does this mean the most logical thing that Russia is effectively replacing its dollar and treasury bond reserves with gold protecting itself from sanctions and strengthening the ruble with tangible backing this year Russia's gold reserves reached a record high of 27.6 99 billion at the end of October according to its Central Bank this represents an increase of nearly 4% from the previous record of $19.76 4 billion recorded in September raia novosti reported in addition the share of gold in Russia's total reserves Grew From 31.5% to 32.9% in 1 month and Saudi Arabia is not far behind in this trend in a secret operation the Saudi Central Bank was caught buying 160 tons of gold in Switzerland however this acquisition was not officially reported why because Saudi Arabia like China prefers not to expose the size of its reserves to avoid possible tensions with the United States what this move reveals to us is how a Ian countries leaders in the energy and financial markets are accumulating gold reserves as a neutral Reserve asset resistant to sanctions and uninfluenced by the US dollar now consider the cumulative impact of these actions over the past 2 years central banks have purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold annually something not seen since 1950 before the dollar was no longer backed by gold in 1971 this record shows that they are preparing for profound changes and an environment where gold plays a fundamental economic role and according to a recent survey by the world gold Council 29% of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months the highest level since this survey began in 2018 only 3% of central banks plan to reduce their gold reserves so what does all this tell us about the price of gold for 2025 it's simple if accumulation continues at the current rate Global demand for gold could outstrip Supply putting upward pressure on prices when Central Bank Banks and major economies rely on gold as a strategic Reserve they are sending a clear message that they anticipate a possible realignment in the global economic balance of power with confidence in the dollar eroding and competition between superpowers increasing gold becomes a strategic option to protect and support their currencies and economies what we are seeing here is a series of strategic moves that go beyond Financial investment we are witnessing a repositioning of assets by the world's major economic powers by 2025 gold May reach price levels that reflect not only its value as an asset but also its weight as one of the key pieces on the global economic chess board third key point the price of gold in the context of Donald Trump's presidency with Donald Trump back in office the gold market could experience an interesting cycle Trump has been known for his protectionist trade policies and his proposal to reimpose tariffs of up to 60% on products from China and other nations is a clear sign that this approach will continue such measures while intended to protect American industry often have a secondary effect they increase the cost of imported goods and generate inflation this could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to control inflation which historically increases demand for gold as a safe haven Trump has also proposed massive tax breaks including eliminating taxes on overtime and Social Security benefits while these breaks could increase disposable income for certain workers the fiscal costs of these measures estimated at roughly $2 to $3.3 trillion over a 10-year period could significantly raise the national deficit this growing debt and the potential rise in inflation are factors that could put upward pressure on the price of gold as investors seek Safe Haven Assets in response to financial instability another crucial aspect is his proposal to limit environmental regulations to boost domestic oil and gas production this measure will not only affect the energy Market but would generate volatility in fuel prices and in the financial Market in general volatility in the energy market and trade tensions also Drive investors to consider gold as a hedge against the depreciation of the dollar in a context of inflationary policies and a growing deficit however there is an additional risk factor the possibility that markets will not react well to increased trade tensions and a more aggressive foreign policy if the trade War escalates the price of gold May soar as the metal acts as a hedge against economic and geopolitical conflicts this uncertainty could continue to push gold to elevated levels approaching $3,000 per ounce in a context of prolonged trade tensions and a more fragmented global economy under a trump presidency gold is emerging as a key asset in an environment of protectionist policies Rising deficits and a possible escalating trade War investors can expect the price of gold to follow an upward trajectory reflecting the combination of economic uncertainty possible elevated inflation and potentially tight monetary policy
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