저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
AI/기술주 버블 우려에 대해 고평가는 예측력이 없으며 버블이라면 다들 기회라고 말할 것이라고 주장. 엔비디아는 여전히 선도 기업이며 Blackwell/Rubin 관련 5000억달러 이상 계약 가시성이 있다고 언급. 단기 주가 변동은 불가피하나 장기적으로 주식은 혁신을 반영해 상승한다고 봄. 정책 불확실성(관세, 2026 중간선거)은 우려 요인이나 역사적으로 새로운 것이 아님. 과도한 기술주 비중은 점검 필요하지만 방향은 3~30개월 후 실적에 달렸다고 강조.
다듬은 글
beyond Nvidia. Thank you, Cla. Many investors are wondering if we're in a broader market bubble. I would go further than that. Most people accept that we are in some sort of bubble or balloon. So then the question is when is it going to burst or have the air come out of it? [sighs and gasps] Now the market is facing several threats.
most notably of course the AI and skyhigh valuations and of course you've got the question of as those valuations come down or as there are worries so the air comes out the balloon then you've got the minutes from the last Fed meeting they showed many members leaning against lowering interest rates that is a slow along with the lack of economic [crying] data that is clouding the issue The Bureau of Labor Statistics now says there will be no October jobs report because no data was collected during the government shutdown.
I spoke to the Arc Investor CEO Kathy Wood about this very subject. We're all in Riad as you know. She said she expects real productivity growth in the coming years. This is the opposite of the tech and telecom bubble. That's why this is sustainable. This is the proverbial wall of worry. Those are the strongest bull markets.
They climb a wall of worry and they broaden out over time. And that's what's happening now. Now with me is Ken Fischer, the founder and executive chair of Fisher Investments. You can't see Ken, but I'm letting the air out of the balloon very gently. But the fear is because I have here the pin and the balloon.
The real theory is that what's about to happen is the whole thing goes pear-shaped. What do you think? Where are we at the moment? First, Richard, thanks for having me. Uh, I think your motto should be quest is the best. But, um, the fact is, uh, I sure hope you don't expect me to make any of those sounds you've been making.
I I just don't have that in me. Uh, that the reality is a little like Ms. Wood had to say. I wouldn't kind of put it the way she put it, but markets pre-pric all widely known things pretty efficiently. The fact is this is not at all a bubble. It just isn't. If it were a bubble, few people would be calling it a bubble.
When it's really a bubble, most people are calling it an opportunity. Are valuations high? Yes. Is that predictive? No. valuations have never been predictive. Statistically, that's just a it's a wrong thing. You can actually look at that statistically in a lot of ways and see correctly. The valuations don't tell you where the market's going over any time period that real human beings care about.
The fact is that valuations are high. These companies are spending a lot of money. Something like Nvidia may do better than people think or worse than people think. It may suffer in a bare market. Oh, big deal. To a surprise for that. But oh, by the way, the fact of the matter is it'll still be the leading semiconductor company in the world.
And in a real bubble, companies like that, most will go away and disappear. The difficulty of course is what to do because these particular stocks have been such a significant uh form of um of of wealth creation that if they take a minor tumble a lot of people will feel the pain from that. Now I guess that's just inevitable.
That's what happens with markets. Did anyone ever know that stocks were volatile? Gesh, who who would know? I mean, the fact of the matter is stocks bounced around a whole lot. Anybody that thinks that they don't or shouldn't just kind of barking up a wrong tree. Stocks do great in the long term. In the long term, they reflect all of the improvement in technology, knowhow, and innovation that comes out of the world.
Most of which comes out of America, by the way. But be that as it may, in the short term, stocks just bounce around a lot. I wouldn't get too excited, for example, one way or the other, although most people will about the Nvidia earnings call because one quarter earnings are looking backwards, not forwards, don't really tell you what's ahead.
So, what does the wise investor do? First of all, if you've now found yourself overweight on tech, which is not I mean it's justifiable at one level because it is such an important generator of wealth. But if you are now overweight in tech, what do you do? So, first, if you believe you're overweight in tech and you aren't rationally optimistic with that being a planful bet, uh well then you're going to correct that.
But the fact of the matter is uh even if you're underweight in tech, you probably got a lot of tech because tech is just the biggest weight in the world. If you think about the rational way to think, in my view, stocks basically weigh earnings over the next approximate 3 to 30 months and you think about this as a intermediate to long-term reality and you say, where do you want to be?
The real question is, and you said this before, Richard, very correctly, is there a bare market ahead in the next three to 30 months? Is there a bare market ahead in the next few years? If there is, these stocks will go down. If there isn't, they'll go up. Will they lead or lag the market? Well, that's another thing to debate.
That's whether you should be overweight or not. But the fact is, you you're taking video. It's already previously announced. It's got over$500 billion dollars of actual right contract Blackwell and Ruben revenue meaning this is the data center revenue stuff that's associated with their with their data center GPUs
over between now and 2020 the end of 2026 that's gargantuan but there still could be bumpy along the way sure I guess what what distresses some um I'd put myself in this category is the lack of policy certainty um certainly in the United States when we've got tariffs we've got changing tariffs. Um all of which does take its toll on the psyche if not the reality.
You know, um Donald Trump is like a Texas tornado where I'm from of uh razor blades. It just it just whirling. Oh, I almost made some of your funny sounds there for a second. Uh it it it's just cutting up and chasing around and scary and you know when we move into the midterms next year that'll freak out a lot of people too because normally that implies a risk of potential policy change.
Um but is that really new in the history of America to have concern about policy change to have strange things up? Donald Trump is very unusual that's for sure. But the the reality is concerns about policy, that's not new. If you take a re a look at and and I know you do review what your investors, what your clients are saying, you're you're very good at having your finger on the pulse of what your clients concerns are.
What is their number one concern at the moment? You've already articulated there's a huge concern that there's a tech and AI bubble. I'm I'm just going to tell you if it were really a tech and AI bubble, there wouldn't there'd be very few people thinking it was a bubble. Most would be thinking it was an opportunity.
That's the biggest single concern I hear. And we are grateful, sir. Um, next time we'll we'll we'll send you some balloons and we can we can blow them up together. Thank you. Have a lovely evening. I'm grateful for as always, K. It's always so good to have your wisdom on the program. Great to be with you, Richard.
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