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마이클 버리가 오스카헬스(OSCR)를 포트폴리오 3.5%에 편입했다며 2~3년 내 500%+ 상승 가능성을 주장. 오스카는 AI·기술 기반 보험사로 매출 고성장(연 20% 목표), 2024년 흑자 전환했으나 분기 실적은 변동성이 큼. 기술적으로 $13~17 박스권이며 $13 지지 확인 후 $12.5 손절, $17 돌파 시 적극 매수 의견. 영상 말미에는 유료 디스코드 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Michael bur the famous investor from The Big Short just bought a brand new stock that I had never heard about before and when I started researching it there are people saying this stock could go up 500% or more over the next 2 to 3 years imagine buying Tesla at $122 before it ran up to over $400 or Nvidia at $11 before it ran up to over $130 or imagine you could go back in history and buy hyns at $4 per share before it ran up to over $60 per share that is the opportunity that you have right now because the stock that Michael bur bought has the potential to see an exponential increase in stock price over the next 2 to three years when michaelb released his portfolio for the end of the year he revealed that he had put 3.5% of his portfolio into a stock called Oscar Health ticker oscr and he's already up 10% on his investment now I'm not one to get super excited around hype but when I started researching the stock I found out that they were a profitable company that are a value stock right now and I saw that the potential for this stock to increase exponentially is absolutely there although I will warn you there are some risks so in this video I'm going to show you what I learned about Oscar Health I'll show you how they are leading the healthcare industry with a brand new technology that's never been seen before and how they are a leader in this technology and AI space when it comes to the healthcare industry I'm going to show you the fundamental analysis and show you how they became profitable and where they could go next we'll also go over the technical analysis and decide whether now would be a good time to buy or whether you might want to wait and we also have to cover the risks and some of the downside potential for the stock as well in full disclosure I do not own any shares of this company but I am thinking about buying some shares shortly for those of you who are new to this channel my name is stock Curry I'm a former maril Lynch and Morgan Stanley investment banker and I have over 25 years of trading experience Oscar health is a health insurance company that is using Ai and Technology to make Health Care affordable Oscar health is an American Health insurance company headquartered in New York City they focus on the health insurance industry through tele medicine healthc care focused technology interfaces and transparent claims pricing systems which make it easier for patients to navigate and and I've got to tell you when I read the word tele medicine I got concerned because the last time retail jumped into a tele medicine stock it didn't turn out so well tedoc ticker TD o remember this one from 2021 yeah well it fell from highs of over $300 per share all the way down to $11 per share so investors need to understand that investing in a company like Oscar health does not come without some downside risk yes the upside potential is massive but you better put a stop loss in place just in case the stock Falls now let's get into why this company is a leader in the healthc care industry and how they're using technology and AI to lower the cost of health insurance from Oscar Health's website they say they are a leading healthc care technology company built around a full stack technology platform and a Relentless focus and serving their members they have been challenging the status quo in the Health Care System since their founding in 2012 and they are dedicated to making a healthier life accessible and affordable for all as of the end of last year they had 1.7 million members they did $9.2 billion in Revenue and they were operating in 18 states and this alone should show you how they have huge growth potential the fact that they're only operating in 18 states means they're not even operating in half of the states in the US and once they expand to the rest of the United States their growth in both revenue and profits could explode and that's where we have the potential to see this EXP itial increase in the stock price Oscar Health's mission is to make a healthier life accessible and affordable for all they do that by harnessing their technology in order to empower others they are using their technology not only internally but also externally with other health insurance providers 80% of Health Plans Outsource a portion of their core operations and Oscar Health takes over those core operations with technology and IT services providing a tremendous amount of savings to these other healthcare companies and the benefits for both employers and employees is massive employers get a defined contribution amount rather than an annual increase in premiums and this saves employers a lot of money setup is also incredibly easy a traditional healthcare plan takes over 30 hours to set up but with Oscar Health it's done in less than 10 minutes meaning small businesses can now provide health insurance to their employers without any hassle and the benefits to employees is equally impressive rather than having three plans to choose from like you do on traditional health insurance where you might have an HSA and FSA and high deductible with Oscar you get your choice from hundred of different plants in addition rather than seeing a paycheck deduction every two weeks you see the actual contribution you're making to the health care plan he's the CEO of Oscar Health he's also the former chairman and CEO of Etna among a lot of other different uh positions that he's held in the healthcare industry but probably the most important thing is that healthc care has now become very individualistic I want it to be fit for me does it mean that as an individual if I'm really healthy and young I can get a much better premium but if I'm somebody who has a family and is using the Healthcare System I'm going to be paying a lot more so here's how you have to think about it you have to think about the employer giving to employees what they've traditionally given them for benefits it's defined contribution instead of defined benefit you allow that employee with some assistance to understand what's going on in their in their use of healthcare to get them into the right plan traditional healthc care plans see a 25% year-over-year increase in premiums but with Oscar health the premiums remain flat year-over-year they do not increase I'm going to show you in a minute why they're able to do that in addition the premiums are lower than they are with traditional health insurance instead of an average of $375,000 per year with Oscar Health it's only 320,000 per year which is a 15% savings the benefits continue with employ e rather than having only three plans to choose from on a traditional employer sponsored health insurance with Oscar employees get 118 plans to choose from and the costs are much lower on prescriptions as well with traditional Insurance insulin costs are around $11,200 per year to the employee and with Oscar it's only $300 per year the benefits that Oscar is able to provide are the reason why Oscar health is growing so quickly through 202 seven Oscar expects to grow Revenue at 20% per year and they also expect to achieve a 5% operating margin within the next 2 years and I know a 5% operating margin isn't that high but it's not that different from how Tesla was in 2019 when they were just starting to become profitable as well because of the savings Oscar Health was able to provide to both employers and employees they have now accumulated 7% of the total market share and they're still only operating in 18 states at the rate Oscar health is growing they are going to exceed United healthc Care's market share look at the exponential growth that Oscar Health recognizes in each market they enter in Miami Iowa and Atlanta their growth was exponential and that is how it is in every single area they enter this chart is probably the most impressive one on the gray line here this is the average cost of Medical Care in the United States and as you can see it continues to increase year over year over year but now look at the light blue line and this is impressive Oscar healths cost of Health Care is actually going down not up and that is how osar health is so profitable their costs are going down even though their revenue is going up and when Revenue goes up and costs go down profits increase and how is Oscar Health able to accomplish all of this it all has to do with their technology their aspiration is to build the most automated health plan with zero manual intervention zero zero errors and zero friction using a brand new technology stack in AI very similar to the way that upstart revolutionized the loan industry Oscar Health technology also has incredible benefits for doctor's offices doctors are seeing a 118% increase in annual Wellness visits they are saving 600% by switching from 30-day refills to 90-day refills bills they're seeing a 48% in year-over-year increase in appointments scheduled and a 133% increase in client retention and that is why so many doctors are wanting to sign up with Oscar Health which further is decreasing their costs not only is Oscar Health the most advanced technology company in the healthcare industry they're also the fastest growing their proprietary technology platform enables Oscar to integrate new a I features into their operations faster than any other company in the market as a result over the past two years they've seen a 40% reduction in administrative effort for messaging encounters and a 56% increase in provider satisfaction with their software so that's what Oscar health does and that's how they do it let's take a look at the financials to perform a good fundamental analysis on this company I want to take a look at both their their annual financials as well as their quarterly financials on the annual financials the most impressive thing is just how quickly they've grown their revenues they've grown their revenues every single year and they've grown them quickly operating income also increased to the point where they actually turned profitable last year for the first time in the company's history their earnings per share were 10 cents but more impressive is the fact that their normalized diluted earnings per share were at 8 cents for the year meaning the vast majority of their profits came from their actual operations not weird things like Investments on an annualized basis this stock looks impressive and I can certainly understand why Michael bur bought it but when we start digging into the quarterly side of the fundamentals this is where the risk of this stock really starts to show up over the past four quarters Oscar Health has not really increased revenues much at all and most concerning is that last quarter the revenues actually went down operating income also switched from highly profitable in the first two quarters of 2024 to losing money once again in the second two quarters of 2024 profits also declined going from 62 cents profit and 20 cents profit in the first two quarters to a loss of 22 cents and a loss of 62 cents per share in the second two quarters this stock reminds me a lot of Tesla in 2019 in 2019 getting into 2020 Tesla was just starting to become profitable they'd have one profitable quarter and then they' go back to losing money for a while then they'd have another profitable quarter and then lose and then another profit Accord in the lose and it took a long time for Tesla stock to start gain any kind of momentum it wasn't really until Tesla stock was able to see multiple quarters in a row of profits did their stock absolutely take off and start skyrocketing and as a result while Tesla stock was kind of in the trenches in 2019 and 2020 and just kind of trading flat around that four to five range that was the time to buy that was the time to accumulate because by 2021 the stock had run up to over $400 per share and this is post-split prices of course so you have to accumulate while the risk is still high but because we are talking about investing in a risky stock here we've also got to put some good stop losses in places so we don't lose our shirts like people did on tedoc so let's take a look at some of the technical analysis and try to decide if now would be a good time to buy or if maybe we should wait and let's talk about a few price points we're going to want to look at when Oscar Health became profitable last year the stock rallied from $2 a share up to around $15 per share but now over the past year the stock has traded pretty much flat right in this $15 range and over the past few weeks especially the stock has been extremely range-bound between $13 and $17 now technically whenever we see a stock in a Range bound like this we are looking for it to either break out to the downside and fall or break out to the upside and rally which way it goes we don't know we're just going to have to wait and see we see another concern on this chart when we look at the daily chart the daily chart has formed an M shaped pattern also known as a Twin Peaks and this is bearish because it usually occurs after stock is rallied and then it finds some resistance at a certain level and then it starts falling once again indicating that Oscar Health would fall but the thing you have to understand about technical analysis is that it's only accurate about 60 to 70% of the time meaning 30 to 40% of the time the technical analysis is going to fail and that is what we saw with Oscar Health rather than falling like the Twin Peaks pattern would indicate Oscar Health actually traded flat which makes the Twin Peaks pattern null and void and no longer bearish with Oscar Health now finding strong support at this $13 level this is the support level we need to watch to make sure the stock doesn't fall further and this is also the level that we're probably going to want to put our stop losses ATS so for me personally as I consider buying this stock I'm probably going to be looking at ACC accumulating the stock somewhere around the current price range I will probably set a stop loss a little bit below $13 probably around $12.50 or so and I will be looking to load up on the stock if we get that breakout above $17 of course the technical analysis on the stock is going to change on a day-by-day basis and that's why we've been talking about the stock on almost a daily basis in the stock dad's Discord Johnny PS did his recent analysis and says he could see one big giant and handle forming which would be very bullish on the stock if it plays out we also do a lot of analysis on other stocks as well one of the stocks we've been analyzing and making a ton of money off of is baaba Alibaba and the profits have been massive somebody made a more than 200% profit on an SPX call option last week another person made a 43% profit on Microsoft call options and on Friday alone somebody made more than a 300% profit on a QQQ put and not only are the profits massive they're also consistent most of our trades make money one stock dads member who still holds a full-time job was able to make money every single day of the week by following our full-time professional multi-millionaire Traders and simply copying their trades and if you want to potentially make profits like this in your portfolio also make sure you check out the stock Dead's Discord using the first link in the description below
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