저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준 의장 임기 평가 영상. 2021~22년 인플레 대응 지연은 인정하나 강한 긴축으로 CPI를 9%에서 하락시키고 연착륙 달성. 코로나 시기 대차대조표 확대(4조→9조달러)로 경제 붕괴 방지. 트럼프 압박 속 연준 독립성 수호가 핵심 유산. 최근 CPI·PPI 상승, 10년물 금리 4.6% 근접, 장기채 주간 최고 수준. S&P500은 임기 중 169% 총수익률로 역대급 성과.
다듬은 글
I put together what I think are some defining charts for his term. And when it comes to any Fed chair, really, it has to start with inflation, right? Fed One of the two mandates for the Fed is to keep prices in check. And here is what it looked like over Powell's tenure. You know, no no real problems, and then coming out of COVID, we all saw this spike where CPI, consumer price inflation, went all the way up to 9%, and then it was brought back down.
Now, was Fed chair Powell a little late to to be serious about the inflationary threat and hike interest rates? Some would argue yes. Was transitory wrong? Yes, that's the mistake that he noted. However, they forcefully he forcefully acted when it became clear that price inflation was sticking around and was getting serious, and they saw the tightest monetary policy that we've seen since the Volcker era, and it has come down.
Now, look at that little tick up recently. That's the Iran war, and that's the sort of challenge that the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is presented with. I also want to show you CPI versus unemployment because everyone thought that when it came to that spike in inflation there, it would be almost impossible for the Fed to get a hold of it without causing a recession or without causing a big spike in the unemployment rate.
But if you look at what happened with the unemployment rate in the orange line, it's really been stable. It only ticked up a little bit. This is the soft landing. Remember we were always debating every day, can can you do it with a soft landing? 2022, that was the debate, right? There's no way he can get the soft landing because he has to raise in- Remember the at one point there it was a triple rate hike.
He raised rates 75 basis points, and yet they achieved the soft landing. We did not see a spike in the unemployment rate. The other one I'll tell you about is the balance sheet, which of course is is also widely debated, but encapsulates, I think, really one of the greatest feats, which was saving the global economy from a depression during the depths of COVID.
The balance sheet went from $4 trillion up to $9 trillion. This is essentially the Fed buying everything from Treasuries to mortgages to to I mean, remember they were just injecting liquidity into the system in a giant way. Now, some would argue it caused inflation, it caused inequality. I mean, this is definitely a topic for debate and it's something that Fed Chair Warsh wants to bring down.
But, it also is the story of the stabilization, I think, of the Remember what was happening? Treasury markets were not at functioning well. Markets were seizing up. Oil went below zero. Remember that was like a crazy period. And so, this was the response to that. And then, so I think these are the These are the key elements when you talk about what he's been through.
The COVID saving, the inflation fighting. I mean, that that really tells the story. course, his defense of the Fed as an independent agency, I think some argue that will be his long-lasting legacy. his major legacy is the defense of the Fed as an independent agency throughout attacks from President Trump and ultimately criminal investigation.
I did put together a little highlight reel of some of Powell's greatest hits on independence. Independence is what allows us to do our jobs. It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way, free of political influence.
We're always going to do the same thing, which is we're going to use our tools to foster maximum employment and price stability for the benefit of the American people. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role.
Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president. After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined.
I've said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that. That Chair Powell standing firm against, you know, that the insults. He never really He never shot back. He just said we are independent of political pressure and we're going to do our job for the American people and it when it came down to even the criminal investigation and even now where he where he I think would like to see this completely finalized and the threat go away before stepping off as governor, but it's clearly standing his ground.
Yeah. Meantime, we've cut what couple hundred basis points in the last year. Uh the 10-year at a more than 1-year high yield today as we get close to 4.6. The long bond is going to have its highest weekly settle in 19 years. Because the story of this week has been hotter inflation prints from CPI to PPI, inflation expectations rising a little bit as we wonder how long the war is going to last and how much that oil price shock is going to filter into other prices like air fares and everything else, which we're seeing um show up.
I just think the final chart on on the Powell tenure is the market. Is the S&P 500 where, I mean, 169% total return for the S&P 500 in Powell's term definitely puts him up there as one of the best Fed chairs for the stock market. It's hard to compete with Greenspan since he was there for 19 years during the that it also included the tech boom.
But if you annualize those returns, which is maybe a more fair even way to do it, Powell is the winner by far. Now, this is also the subject of fierce debate. A lot of people think that it exacerbated inequality and that it was good for the rich and that, you know, that's not a good measure of the market.
ask people who own assets. Right. Yeah. But if you think the market is any kind of indication of of the economy and sentiment, I mean, Powell's had a very good run on that front. Yeah. Uh we'll see how things begin to change at the Fed on Monday as Warsh has his first official day.
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