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today we're gonna take a slightly more serious tone and talk about why Bitcoin continues to rise and obviously I don't know when you're gonna watch this video I don't know what the shelf life of this video is gonna be like so if you watch this video a year from now two years from now whatever then obviously be conscious of the fact that this was done in November of 2017 now with that in mind we have seen very parabolic growth in Bitcoin over the past year if we look at this chart here and you can see that back at this time last year it was trading at roughly 750 dollars and we're all the way up at 6500 now it's almost gone up ten times in the past year or a thousand percent return now for perspective here the stock market in the same period of time has returned roughly I believe 25 percent year-over-year in the S&P 500 and if you look at a number of tech companies you're talking somewhere between 50 to a hundred percent so of course the increase in the value of Bitcoin is certainly unique in the sense of scale how much has gone up and a lot of people are asking the question why does it continue to go up because if we think about the fundamentals of Bitcoin I know a lot of people are gonna hate me saying this but they haven't changed all that much in the past year you know we have implemented a scaling solution in seg whit we are starting to think about other skilling solutions of course which I believe will likely fail what we don't really know of course I'm talking about the 2x hard fork where are they double the size of the blocks we don't really know what's going to happen with that but we do know that there is a major difference in the sense that we have finally settled the scaling debate at least to some extent right we have seg wit and the question is going to be moving forward are we going to change the block size now what's interesting about this to me is that one of the most fundamental metrics by which we value Bitcoin by which we determine the adoption of Bitcoin is the number of daily transactions or the volume of data transactions and if we look at those you'll see that the transaction volume really hasn't increased all that much over the period of a year right we sort of have this trend line in the middle here at roughly 250,000 transactions a day but does this look like a clear uptrend in the number of daily transactions no it doesn't right if we move it to two years it's a little nicer looking and that means that from 2015 the 2016 and even the early parts of 2017 we saw a nice little uptrend here but over the past year or so it's really the number of daily transactions hasn't really increased that much if you go on a 30-day rolling basis it's still really not that impressive and so I can even show on this particular chart the seven day moving average right and then if we move to one year here you can see that it's relatively flat right we're sort of consolidating in the number of daily transactions average per week right and so even with the rolling averages we don't see a clear uptrend and what that suggests to me is that we really aren't seeing a massive increase in adoption now what a lot of people like to point out is the increase in the u.s.
dollar value of those transactions right because if you look at this over the course of a year you will see an obvious uptrend here but let me tell you that the reason why the US dollar transaction value is increasing is just because the value of Bitcoin is increasing and you might be saying well doesn't that just mean that more goods and services are being purchased with Bitcoin so we don't care about the quantity or volume of transactions all we care about is the value of said transactions and while I would initially agree with you the unfortunate reality here is that the transactions between exchanges are included here in other words for example let's say you buy Bitcoin on GX and in order to buy let's say arc if you wanted to buy arc you would have to transfer that Bitcoin over to bid tracks and then you would have to buy arc with the Bitcoin that you transfer over that transaction where you send Bitcoin from G Dax over two-bit tracks he is actually a transaction that gets recorded on the blockchain now all of these transactions that happen within G Dax that happen within bit tracks of course those don't show on the blockchain those are all settled internally within the exchanges system however the transactions between exchanges actually do get recorded onto the blockchain and I suspect that that is the reason why we are seeing such substantial transaction volume now don't get me wrong more people are using Bitcoin now than ever but not enough more that we should see a 10 times increase in the value of Bitcoin over a year right so when I think about the value of Bitcoin and how much it's increased or accuse me the price is what I should say when I think about how much the price of Bitcoin has increased its really all been on a technical and sentiment driven basis so the question is for those of us looking from the investing perspective in the long term you know can Bitcoin continue to produce such increases in price despite the fact that the actual adoption of Bitcoin really hasn't done anything over the past year and the answer is likely yes although it's not for the reasons you would suspect so if we think about Chris Burtynsky and the way that he says that we should value crypto currencies he suggests that we do it through valuing the utility value of the network in other words trying to determine how large does the market cap of Bitcoin have to be in order to support the transactions that take place on the network and he goes through a bunch of metrics by which you can determine that and the increase in adoption over time and the velocity of Bitcoin that is the amount of times that a single bitcoins gets used over a certain period of time right because obviously the same Bitcoin can be used for multiple transactions right so what I want to emphasize about all of this is that when we think about the valuation of Bitcoin it's mostly through trying to value the utility network and I guarantee you that the utility value of the net has not increased tenfold over the period of the past year or so and so you're asking the question how can Bitcoin continue to go up and the answer is is that there's two main ways by which any particular asset can be priced the first way is through a fair valuation that's determined over time so when we think about stocks for example stocks are valued through discounted cash flow analysis they are valued through multiple analysis ratio analysis relative valuation so on so forth over the long term while news can have an impact and will have an impact on stocks they will ultimately revert to their fair value so if there's a news event or a big headline that crashes the value of the stock it will ultimately correct back towards a more fair value right if we think about Equifax recently that is a perfect example of that so what I want to say here is that bitcoin is not that Bitcoin is an incremental pricing mechanism in other words there is price memory with stocks there's no price memory the previous price has no influence on the future price but with Bitcoin I am certain that that is not true I'm certain it's not true in other words now that we are at six thousand six hundred dollars five thousand dollars now seems cheap hell even six thousand dollars can seem cheap right anytime that we passed another thousand-dollar milestone the previous thousand-dollar seems cheap if we think about four thousand dollars which we spent a while sort of trading in that range now four thousand dollars sounds cheap right and if you think back to when Bitcoin was worth around a thousand dollars just earlier this year that sounds absurd now if Bitcoin went down to a thousand dollars to everybody that would be like the ends of the world that would be like the apocalypse so there is price memory with Bitcoin and the way Bitcoin is influenced is by incremental news events so for example recently here with Bitcoin we saw a futures are going to launch this year on cm II so the idea that cm II group is actually going to launch these derivative based off of Bitcoin it's supporting the market a little bit and it's another reason why bitcoin is heading a little bit higher right anytime a news event happens even if it shouldn't affect the fair value of Bitcoin it still does and this does affect the fair value but there have been events that have happened where Bitcoin really shouldn't be influenced but it keeps going up right and so what we see with Bitcoin in particular here is that news events don't have long lasting impacts but they do affect Bitcoin and then there's sort of a price memory factor right when we think about what happened to China we've completely forgotten about China because the most recent news always has the highest impact on bitcoins value it's all based off of incrementals and that's why bitcoins price just keeps going up you know a lot of people are wondering you know the transaction volume is not really increasing all that much we still have the problems of high transaction fees when we look at market capture transaction volume ratio we are at historic highs and when we've been at these historic highs it's corrected quite violently right so the question is why does Bitcoin continue to go up and the answer is simple we keep seeing incremental news events that are positive that we are completely ignoring any of the negative news events for example China getting out of the market but if China suddenly decided that they wanted to get back into the market right then Bitcoin would skyrocket it's as if we have completely priced out the fact that Bitcoin lost 15% of the trading volume and now we're just moving on to new heights as we move into the Bitcoin 2x hard fork which is anticipated to happen on November 16 2017 and so the answer to all of your questions really in the end here is Bitcoin continues to go up we just broke through 6600 the reason it keeps going up is because people are not looking at the fundamentals of Bitcoin they're not looking at the past news events and what their long-term impact is that's a perfect example again with China where we lost 15% of the trading volume for Bitcoin and it continues to go up in addition I also think there are people manipulating the price of Bitcoin it's not difficult to do so because these exchanges are very loosely regulated and I've mentioned this in previous videos where I've seen evidence of spoofing I have seen evidence of people that are sort of cooking this order book so that any time it seems thin on one particular side they bit up the prices very far right so for example you have this huge cell wall that we have here but I guarantee you a majority of that cell wall is not legitimate in other words I don't think they actually want to sell 57 now 62 Bitcoin I think they only want to sell actually I don't even know if they want to sell any Bitcoin at all I think they just want to reduce the price a little bit so that they can get in a little bit cheaper and if they see that this buy wall which is genuine right this is a legitimate three Bitcoin that people want to buy if they see this wall get bigger and bigger then they'll move up their wall and I've seen plenty of evidence of this over time and it's kind of concerning to me you see how fast that that actually changed there because it's completely done by algorithms and trading BOTS right so when we think about Bitcoin it is being manipulated by Wales it's based off of incremental price increases as a result of news events and in the long term here yes Bitcoin will be valued based off of fundamentals but at what point that's gonna happen I don't know but this is why people call Bitcoin a bubble it's charts like this one where you say the adoption of Bitcoin is increasing yeah more businesses are accepting Bitcoin now than ever but when we look at transaction volume over the past year or so that much has actually happened with it so you know it's it's tough to say it is it's actually very tough to say what exactly we should think about here in terms of you know as Bitcoin was Bitcoin just really undervalued I mean that's the other argument here that you can make is you know what even though the transaction volume on a rolling basis is similar when we think about transaction volume relative to the market cap ratio it was being undervalued it was not being assigned to fair multiple in stocks we talked about a fair multiple for stocks or basically the fair price that you should pay per dollar of earnings well maybe we weren't paying a fair multiple for this transaction volume and we should be paying more because more growth potential is possible with Bitcoin however the multiple was already fairly high so again when we think about the fundamentals of Bitcoin I want you to keep this information in mind that when it comes to transaction volume which I believe to be the most fundamental indicator or the best way to value or measure bitcoins adoption it's pathetic and since that there's no real growth in transaction volume on a daily basis not even if you do it over a seven day rolling period or a thirty day rolling period anyway let me know your thoughts about why Bitcoin continues to go up in price again I have a feeling that a lot of it has to do with FOMO I have a feeling that has a lot to do with incremental news and I have a feeling that has a lot to do with price memory right when we see $6,600 $6,000 seems cheap so when it goes down like this people panic by the dip because we're in a bull market right now why wouldn't you buy the dip right that's the argument at least because as long as we continue to be in a bull trend buying the dip will always be the correct strategy and then the big question is going to be if this is overvalued if Bitcoin has overextended at what point is it going to correct because if we think back to the dot-com bubble it took multiple years for that to correct so I'm not saying that bitcoin is a bubble but it definitely has characteristics of one given that the fundamentals have not improved that much and the transaction volume that we are seeing is likely the result of transactions between exchanges that really aren't true adoption they're just people trying to speculate on altcoins rather than Bitcoin right so in the end here I would love to hear your thoughts it's obviously a fairly deep topic obviously I think bitcoin is going to be very important for the future but I do think it's possible that it's rose a little bit too quick too fast something to think about relative to other asset classes you know I've talked about this in my previous video where said if bitcoin is a bubble so is everything else I think that every asset class has appreciated a little bit faster than it should so again I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts I know that this video was a little bit of rambling here but I just wanted to get this off of my chest and sort of talk about it a little bit because you know there's plenty of money to be made here through trading but I hope everybody that's investing in Bitcoin is aware of the fact when you invest you should be investing based off of the fundamentals and this chart here if we were thinking of this chart as the fundamentals over the past year really doesn't encourage me all that much that Bitcoin should be trading at a massive premium now we do know that we have the derivatives markets that are getting established throughout 2018 we know that there is the chance that the ETF approval we know that hard Forks create additional crypto currencies and people like their free money so yes there's plenty of reasons for Bitcoin to continue to go up I'm not saying it's gonna go down anytime soon I'm not even saying that it's overvalued but there is evidence to suggest that it is and I would love for all of you to think about that and give me your thoughts in the comments and give me real thoughts don't just tell me that bitcoin is going to be the future and revolutionized the world and take over this and take over that because I want real arguments probably the best argument that can be made here is that bitcoin is turning into a store of value which means that it's taking over Gold's market share which means that we have that seven to eight trillion dollar market that Bitcoin can tap into and that's where the value is coming from not from the use as a payment network but rather as a use as a store value and that's probably the best argument you can make but I don't think that that's the future of Bitcoin I think is a part of the future for Bitcoin but I think that there's transaction volume really has to go up a lot before the value of Bitcoin can skyrocket as well anyway I hope you all enjoyed this video as usual leave a like comment and subscribe and I will get back to you as soon as possible thank you for watching
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