저자: 미상 · 외국인
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시장 타이밍보다 시장에 머무는 것(Time in the market)이 낫다는 결론이다. [핵심 주장] - 시장 타이밍은 대부분 실수이거나 우연에 가깝다. 진행자 본인도 과거 타이밍을 시도해 실패한 경험이 있다고 밝힌다. - 단기 가격은 투기와 심리에 좌우되며, 장기적으로는 기업 펀더멘털이 반영된다(벤저민 그레이엄: 장기는 저울, 단기는 투표기). [근거 수치] - Howard Marks 1993년 메모: 1926~1987년 주식 연평균 수익률 9.4%. 최고 수익 50개월(약 7%)을 놓치면 61년간 사실상 수익이 0. - Calamos 분석(1999~2019): 최고 수익일 20일을 놓치면 1만 달러가 약 1.67만 달러 수준으로 거의 불어나지 않음(원문 수치 그대로), 전부 투자 유지 시 약 3.2만 달러. 최고 수익일은 전체 기간의 약 0.3%에 불과. [Guy Spier 2021 연례 서한 사례] - 런던·파리·베를린 등 도심 우량 부동산 비유: 전쟁 위험에 현금화하거나 저급 자산으로 바꾸는 것보다 최고 자산을 유지하는 편이 낫다는 논리. [예측 관련] - 특정 자산(주식 지수, 종목, 금리, 환율, 코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 장기적 관점의 낙관(시장은 수십 년간 상승해 왔다)만 언급. [조건/리스크] - 매크로(금리, 인플레이션, 전쟁, 팬데믹) 예측에 시간을 쓰기보다 기업 분석과 보수적 가치 대비 저가 매수에 집중할 것을 권고. - 2020년 3월 팬데믹 급락 때 본인이 잘못된 타이밍 결정을 내렸다고 인정. [출연자 전망] - 버핏·멍거·모니시 파브라이 등 가치투자자들은 매크로를 투자 논리에 넣지 않는다고 소개하며, 시장 타이밍 대신 장기 보유를 권장. [결론] - 단기 매매 시도는 수익을 깎아먹는 리스크이며, 그 시간을 기업 리서치와 가치투자 학습에 쓰는 것이 낫다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone welcome back to the channel um today's video is going to be about uh market timing and whether it's something we should do whether it's something we should be trying to do get in at the right time get out at the right time um i know i'm speaking from experience as i've in some ways been tempted to or tried to do this in the past it's almost always been a a mistake uh or a fluke um but um you know should we be doing it what is market timing and there's that that um you've probably heard this saying before um and uh time in the market is better than timing the market so time in the market is better than timing the market um and you know i wanted to create a video which digs deeper around around that subject what should we be doing um because it's very hard to to know sometimes especially when you want to eke out you think you could be clever and you think you can eke out some extra rate of return by you know what if i sell this and um getting low on this stock and and then sell out again before the other one runs up something um so i was a few weeks back i was rereading a book that i've read by william greene called richer wiser happier this is a great book by the way basically there's a chapter for loads of different great investors about how they became richer wiser and happier i guess it's it's a really good book to to read and there's a chapter on there about howard marx howard marx is a is a very successful american investor um i think his compound annual rate of return is north of 18 or something like that he runs uh oak tree capital management uh 40 billion dollars no 106 north of 150 billion dollars um assets under management and anyway there's um howard marx is also famous for writing memos so and they go back years decades even um to so he writes memos to to his investors and it's kind of um a piece of writing uh around a thought that he has at the time or his thinking at the time and um in the book richard wiser happier in a chapter about howard marks it talks about this concept of timing the market and um it references what his 1993 memo and i'll just show you it here it i'll link it down in the in the description below i've got it open here actually so um he talks about so just here in this paragraph here a bit further down the memo um the average annual return on equities and this is a large time period from 1926 to 1987 which is a um 61 year time period so the average rate of return was 9.4 but if you'd gone to cash and missed the best 50 of those 744 months you would have missed all of that return so this tells howard that attempts at market timing are a source of risk and not protection so what he's getting at there is if you if you try and time the market and get in and get out you may be getting out at the wrong time when you should be remaining in the market and if you had missed only 50 of those 704 months which is about seven percent of those months then you would have had no return over a 61-year period you wouldn't have had the index nine point four percent you would have had absolutely no return um so you know just think about that you you miss seven percent of the months and you've you've earned nothing over 61 years um and it's always hard to know when to get back in as well you get out the market um if you if the market starts running up you um it's hard to know when to get back in a lot of people don't get back in or they get back in and they've missed you know one of these uh one of these these um one of the best months in the in the market another example i'd like to talk about as well it's a more a more recent study uh that william green also talks about uh in the book he references a an article by um calamos uh calamos investments um so they are a large diversified global investing firm uh with about 40 billion dollars assets under management and i'll link this down in the description as well below um but they put out um a a uh an analysis um of various different things they talk about timing the market and how you can get whiplash and so this is over a 20-year period so it's uh 1999 to 2019 and in that 20-year period i think how many days are in a 20-year period so that 20 year period if you missed the best 20 of those days just 20 your 10 000 starting uh amount would have basically gone nowhere you'd have earned 167 dollars extra so if you remember if you'd ever remain fully invested you'd have had um a triple in your value more than triple to 32 000 but just missing 20 of the best days in that time period i mean that's that's um 0.3 percent of those days in those 20 years you if you missed 0.3 percent of those days of the of the and they they happen to be the 20 best days that's it you you've got no return over that time so um it really kind of highlights that it doesn't take much to miss out the miss out on some great returns and you know you should really just um stay in the market and timing the market it's always so hard i mean a lot of the time well most of the time the market in the short term trades on speculation and um the the the price movements and the fluctuations are not always based on the fundamentals in the long term like benjamin graham says the market is a weighing machine in the long term but in the short term it's a voting machine and you don't know when those massive gains are going to come and you might be out of the market because you think you're clever um you might be out of the market at the wrong time um i did want to highlight one more um one more thing from um guy spears recent um annual report so he started putting those out i think the 2021 was the first time he started putting those out uh and he talks about um amongst other things he talks about inflation the environment we're in my in right now how inflation can affect um affect us you know you know it's it's quite a recent writing is his 2021 annual letter but he proposes in here he he says imagine that you own some excellent downtown properties in major cities like london paris berlin new york chicago and san francisco unleavened so you don't have you know the debt or mortgages against them so class a office blocks hotels and residences prime locations imagine now a terrible scenario in which a world war is coming and three of these cities will be carpet bombed so what should you do should you sell the world's best real estate and go to cash and keep the proceeds hidden away in a vault should you sell some of the prime real estate and buy non-prime properties on the edge of the cities hoping that you know they won't be affected or maybe in less desirable cities but they might get bombed anyway or should you stick around with the best assets and take the hits and when if and when they come safe and secure in the knowledge that you'll still own some of the world's best real estate uh on the other side of the extreme turmoil um you're going through it's just it's kind of a thought process and an analogy you know what should you do you don't know which cities are going to be um affected is it not better to just know that you have some of the best assets that you've researched really well um and um write it out i think it's also important to remember that um understand your own limitations and remember that um any time that you spend thinking about timing the market or getting in and getting back out at the right moments anytime you spend doing that is time that you're not spending researching companies or um time you're not spending advancing your uh value investing knowledge um and advancing that goal to financial freedom um because i truly believe that um time spent thinking about short-term price movements uh even if even if you think you're sure that you know the market's about to crash and you know you've got a company let's say that isn't quite at full value or you know not ordinarily if you didn't think a crash was coming you wouldn't sell it but you think i'll sell it because i think a crash is coming and even if you're really sure that that is going to happen you don't know there's many things that you you don't know and markets can do very irrational things one of the worst pandemics for centuries or decades and the market dives and then turns around and goes straight back up i mean a lot of that that caught a lot of investors um that blindsided a lot a lot of investors and because they thought it was the um you know a dead cat bounce or sorry i thought it was a dead cat bounce to be honest i i made some wrong market timing decisions in the march 2020 as well um and um i have done these things before and i can speak from experience that um just don't do it don't try and time the market just just it's wasted brain power wasted time think about the company you own think about buying more as it goes lower because you don't know what the future holds in in the short term or you can just focus on buying great businesses at conservatively um great prices where your your chances of a high rate of return are are very high you know value of business and buy it much less than it that it's conservatively worth is a quote i always remember from from warren buffett and um you know some of the best investors of the in the world warren buffett charlie munger and uh monish probably i've heard them talk about many many times they don't even look about they don't even look into any macro stuff they don't you know that doesn't factor into their thesis for buying a company whether what inflation's going to do or interest rates are going to do or whether russia is going to invade ukraine or whether there's going to be another pandemic or another world war the market has gone up decades decade after decade after decade um over a long period of time and i'll just put up a chart on the screen here of all these things that have happened across this large time frame um and they they could have all been reasons to time the market and sell but you can see that you would have been wrong to do that and none of these great investors you know these great value investors that have um high concentration uh portfolios they they look at the from a bottom-up point of view they look at the is this company going to be bigger and larger in 10 years and by how much um and can i buy it conservatively and make a good rate of return they don't worry about what the macros going to do and i certainly suggest that you do the same i know it can be hard because certainly when um you don't want to see your uh on paper value disappear and i've had many times where things have gone down and i've been like damn i knew it i i knew i should have sold i knew i should have sold you know such an idiot but you you can't know that you can't know that i'm actually in a position right now where you know um i've got a a company that's gone down quite a lot since i since i bought it and you know naturally i think you know what if i'd have sold even if i'd have sold half i could have been bought in you know more um lower down but it could have equally equally gone the other way and i would be i'd have this cash which um i'd have to deploy at uh much less favorable rates of return so timing the market don't do it if you do do it you'll just learn the lesson the hard way um try and learn the lesson the easy way listen to me talking about listening to all these great value investors that talk about not timing the market um and hopefully some of the examples i've given you illustrate as to why you really shouldn't because if you miss some of the best months or days over quite a long time period it can just wipe out your your rate of return um so um i hope you got some value out of today's video i um you know send me some comments below i'll happily you know be um happily interact with you in the comments section if you've got any questions or ideas of the future videos um and otherwise i'll let you get back to your day um and uh yeah let's all go out there and become super investors together i'll catch you on the next one take care
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