저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2020년 인도 시장은 대형주 강세·중소형주 약세 속에서, 케디아는 시장 타이밍 대신 기업 성장에 집중한 장기 보유를 강조하며 개인 투자자에게는 선물옵션·페니스톡 투기를 경계하라고 조언한다. 시장 상황과 투자 철학: 2018년은 대형주 중심 장세로 중소형 지수는 13~20% 하락했다고 언급된다. 케디아는 현금 보유 없이 30년 넘게 100% 투자 상태를 유지했으며, 시장이 아닌 기업에 투자한다는 입장이다. 시장의 불확실성과 변동성은 게임의 규칙으로 받아들인다. 종목 선정 기준: 그는 기업의 성장성(제품 지속력, 성장 속도)을 PE·ROCE 등 비율보다 중요하게 본다. 바텀업과 탑다운을 혼합하는 방식이며, 에베레스트 인더스트리스 지분을 약 5%까지 늘렸다고 소개된다. 과거 멀티배거 사례: 아가이스 로지스틱스, 사라 새니터리웨어, 아툴 오토 등은 2008년 이후 인도 시장 침체기에 PER 5~6배, 배당수익률 5~7%의 저평가 상태에서 매수해 멀티배거가 되었다고 설명한다. 화학·베어링 업종: 수다르산 케미컬은 1992~93년 소량 매수 후 2014년 구조적 변화를 보고 추가 매수했으며 약 10배 수익을 냈다고 한다. 중국의 안료 산업 경쟁력 약화를 이유로 인도 특수화학 업종에 여전히 긍정적이다. 베어링 업종은 과잉 설비가 해소되는 중이며 ABC 베어링은 팀켄과의 합병으로 가치가 재평가될 것으로 본다. 민간 투자 회복 시 수요 증가를 기대한다. 도박 및 투자자 조언: 케디아는 스스로를 카지노를 즐기는 도박꾼이라 소개하며 손실 한도를 설정한다고 밝힌다. 선물옵션 거래는 도박과 유사하다고 보며, 신규 투자자가 쉽게 돈을 벌 수 있다는 생각(EASY), 단기 부자 욕심(CROREPATHY), 잘못된 접근법(APPROACH), 페니스톡 선호(PENNY STOCK)를 실패 원인으로 꼽는다. 선물옵션과 페니스톡에 대해서는 자격과 지식 없이 접근하지 말라고 경고한다. 리스크: 본인이 추천하는 종목이 아니라고 명시했으며, 베어링 업종의 밸류에이션 부담과 페니스톡의 위험성을 언급한다. 출연자의 향후 시장 전망은 대체로 낙관적이다.
다듬은 글
well 2018 has been a year of large cap so far the nifty is smiley higher but the pain has been seen in the broader markets the small cap in the middle cap indices they are down between 13 to around 20 but today we bring to you a master class with noted investor mr vijaycadia mr vijaycaria by the way needs no introduction but is known for his bottom-up approach and is noted for 100 baggers like aegis logistics sarah sanitarywear as well as atulotto the most recent 10 bag in fact is sudashan chemicals in the last four years thanks so much for joining in mr kedya pleasure talking to you well um let's start talking about the market right away then how are you reading current market sentiment sit on cash or go out there there are plenty of opportunities no i cannot go any anywhere because i am 100 invested in this market and ever since i am in this market still last for 30 years more than 30 years there was not a single day when i was not 100 invested all right so i am fully invested and if you ask me that uh where do i see this market so let me tell you uh my approach to this market is little different so either you are investing into a market or you are investing into a stock or you are investing into a company so actually i am not investing in this market nor i am investing in the stocks actually i am investing in the companies right so if i'm investing in the companies then it doesn't matter to me whether we are in a bull market or we are in a bear market right actually that the truth is that we are into a stock market absolutely okay and unpredictability and uh uh unprecedent uh fluctuation is the is the rule of the game absolutely so you have to wear all these things so so i'm invested in companies and i'm long-term investors so i'm just sitting tight that's it absolutely sir you know you've been a noted investor you've got many multibaggers obviously there would be hurdles on the way as well but what is the most important point you look at you know for us youngsters we're growing up we look at you know the pe ev upon a beta some talk about growth roc for you which is the most important among all these ratios that we talk about now to me actually concept is very important so forget about the bottom line forget about the top line what is the growth in the company the concept and the growth which is very important right so me the most important factor in choosing an investment is actually the growth of that company whether the product will sustain in uh in the due course and uh how fast a company can grow that is more important so i was looking at some of your holdings and in the recent past everest industries so what would you termitize bottom up or top down actually i would say it's blending of both okay there are hardly hardly few companies listed in this space only four companies i think four or five companies are listed so and i think stock is also uh what i feel i may be wrong also stock is also cheap okay and uh it's a blending of both as you asked okay all right so uh everest industries is one stock where mr cadia has increased the stake to a roughly around five percent approximately the other important points i wanted to ask you is over the recent past you know if i just take a look at the last few years the sector leader is something that doesn't grab your attention really you look at maybe player number three player number four in a market case in point being a sarah sanitary ware or maybe even an atul auto they were not leaders in the sector but they were big big multi baggers for you run us through the investment thesis there now it was very simple actually when i bought all these stocks which you had mentioned just now ages and whatever to lotta and sarah senator the biggest advantage actually uh was in my favor that market was actually pretty bad that time because we had just come out from that uh coma kind of situation of kitten park scam and all right so stocks were also very cheap at a throwaway price so all these stocks were uh available at maybe a p of five or six and giving a dividend yield of around five six or seven percent and plus economy was also turning around yeah and same uh case was there with all these companies they were also turning around so i got that advantage so that is why all this become a multi-bagger okay all right you know the other space mr kedia that everyone's talking about is the chemical space in the last couple of years and that's been getting a lot of attention i understand that you did a lot of ground research you visited china you saw how the industry was shaping up there and then you backed sudarshan chemicals which by the way i think it's a 10 bagger from the time you bought it tell us how does that go about how important is ground research now of course it is very important because if you are if you are if your stake is high then your research should also be certainly uh high yeah so uh that time actually i was i was in china for some different reason yeah some different uh venture so then i happened to meet somebody from the chemical industry and then i got to understand that china is losing the grip in pigments and this chemical field and all so that time i remember i visited beijing also and i could see the pollution and all uh so that was a little bit groundwork i did but only thing was why i zeroed in into sudarshan chemical because i was following this company for last many years maybe for last 15 20 years all right so uh my initial uh stock uh was bought in 1992 or three very small quantity so which i held on to till 2014 and when i found that this structural change is happening in this pigment industry then i bought sudarshan chemicals and what about chemicals industry most team left of course i think special specialty chemical not general commodity kind of chemical and all and pigments and all i think india is actually uh weighing uh going way ahead uh then china okay so still positive on the chemicals uh spacers water speciality chemical space note that specialty chemical space is what mr area is a bullish on the other space has been the auto space we already spoke about atul auto but even the bearings industry it's known that you have you know a couple of big stakes in abc bearings as well which would be going in for corporate action with the timkin how bullish are you out there the auto space is turning around the industrial industry as well is looking quite well your take on the bearings industry on the whole i think there was excess capacity in bearing industries are hardly few listed players in india maybe five or six players and abc when i bought that time it was cheap so now it is no more a cheap stock just because it is getting merged with chemical industries so they will get a valuation of timken so looking at the overall scenario now since as like people are talking that india our average capacity utilization is crossing seventy five percent or same so we believe that maybe going forward private capex will start kicking off so all these things will create a good demand for bearing industry and tim timkin being the world leader in bearing industry will certainly bring all those technology into india so certainly this company will also be benefited so it's not at all a recommendation the stock is very uh expensive yeah so it's just a discussion okay but positive outlook on for the better yeah now since it will become a tinkering uh company so tim can valuation will be given so specialty chemical space is looking pretty interesting we have even the bearing space that's looking pretty interesting as well well over the last few days mr kedia i've noticed that there's a lot of debate on gambling in india i want to know whether or not music area is a are you a gambler and what's your take on this space on the whole i'm a great gambler not a small gambler i go to casino and i play my wife also likes to gamble so but we have set a limit that either when i will lose 100 or 200 that is my upper limit so that is why i call myself great gambler on gambling i remember one thing like now government is contemplating of legalizing gambling in india according to me government has already legalized gambling and what people are uh doing trading into future and option that is also a gambling only okay so what is gambling gambling is like something you are taking a chance okay without any qualification without any experience you are doing something to make money without any logic so that is taking a chance that is gambling but for a lot of those investors who have come in there they suddenly got hit what kind of mistakes are they making what kind of advice would you like to give some of these investors that are coming in there maybe you have a couple of themes as well that you have in mind that you could explain to them i will tell you one thing one economy is cape okay how can you escape from the failure in the market and especially this is only for the newcomers and all we can't teach or we can't interact with uh you know veteran in the market of course the newcomers though they should remember the word escape and in escape e stands for easy yeah so what comes into the market they feel there's a market making money this market is very easy they don't need any education though they don't need any learnings or or no experience is required yes you pass your uh become or your school and your university and uh you can make money so it's not an easy business okay it's a simple business but it's not an easy business so uh that is why i have chosen this word escape what's the acronym i mean if you could explain it to us yeah escape in escape e stands for easy it's not an easy business okay and c stands for pathy so that is the majority of the people want to become crorepathy in a shortest possible time and overnight they want to become koropathy and that is why they are doing all other mistakes so and this is why they fail in the market and another word of escape is like uh later is a so then your approach your approach the market is wrong your approach to the market is like gambling you know uh that uh and market rewards you as per perception if you think it's a gambling then then it will prove a gamble for you and the last uh letter of escape is p like p e so p stands for penny stock there are two reasons why people fail in this market the major reasons is this one one reason is that they indulge into trading approached your approaches of gambling yeah and another reason is your love for penny stocks you see the most of the wealth in this market has been destroyed by these two segments uh future and options and penny stocks so if you can escape from this escape then certainly i don't know whether you will make money or not actually you will not fail in the market you will not leave the market you know you will not say later on that this market is a slaughterhouse so be aware you know if you don't have the right knowledge out there then you are telling our audience out there be careful if you want to play in the future in option space you should have the qualifications out there and even with regard to penny stocks well they look cheap but very be very very careful out there because that's where you can get hit the majority of the time
Comments 0