저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Bill Ackman이 Uber 지분을 늘려 포트폴리오 최대 비중(18.5%, 약 22억 달러)이 되었고 Uber는 연초 대비 52% 상승, S&P500 대비 우수한 성과를 보임. 매출 약 450억 달러(연 15% 성장), 순이익 120억 달러, FCF 70억 달러로 수익성 개선. 다만 발행주식수 증가(연 약 2%)는 주주에게 불리. 모델 내재가치는 주당 70~213달러(보수~공격 가정). 진행자는 펀더멘털은 우수하나 현재 가격은 매력적이지 않아 더 낮은 가격에서 매수를 기다리겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Uber shares are up 52% year-to-date, and Bill Ackman, one of the most famous and highly successful investors, just increased his stake in Uber. In fact, it is now the largest position in his portfolio, accounting for 18.5%, and the total value of their shares is $2.2 billion. So, Uber has outperformed the S&P 500.
As you can see, over the past 3 years, Uber has grown by 308%, while the S&P 500 has grown by 62%. In this video, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the company, review financials , forecasts, statistics, and use my spreadsheet to calculate the company's intrinsic value. So, starting with our financials, as you can see , revenue has been growing very consistently and quite well over the last few years, and the current revenue is $45 billion.
They were growing revenue by about 15% per year, which is a very solid figure. Moreover, they have significantly improved their profits. As before, you can see that net income was negative. Why? Because they spent all their money on business development. But now they are more focused on profitability, and net income is $12 billion.
dollars. Same with free cash flow: although it is a bit smaller, it used to be negative and now it is $7 billion. Their margins are also very, very good: the profit margin is currently 27%, and the free cash flow margin is about 17%. The only thing I don't like about this company's financial performance is the number of shares outstanding.
As you can see, it is growing, and this is very bad for investors, because you own a smaller share of the company and your profitability will suffer, without actually doing anything. Furthermore, if we look at what to expect in the coming years, revenue is expected to continue to grow very consistently and steadily at 15%.
And their earnings per share (EPS) should also increase to $4.60 per share in 2027. And this action is covered by many analysts. So, everything looks very good in terms of financial performance and forecasts. And now, if we look at some statistics, their balance sheet is impressive, as they have $7 billion in cash and only $11 billion in debt, which is very, very little debt.
Now, looking at some valuation multiples, the current PE is 16, which honestly looks very good for the level of growth they are expected to have. and their price- to-free cash flow ratio is 24. The price- to-sales ratio is four, which is a good figure for a company in this industry , and the forward P/E is 31, as net income is expected to decline significantly next year.
However, to analyze the cost estimate in more depth, I will use my Google Sheets spreadsheet. It tells me at what price to buy shares, based on assumptions about the company's future that you enter. I conducted a seven-year analysis with low, medium, and high assumptions. As you can see, the intrinsic value according to the calculations ranges from $70 per share on my low assumptions to $213 per share on my high assumptions.
This also means that, under my low assumptions, you will earn 5.25% annual return on your invested funds. The average rate is 15.75%, and the high rate is 25.75%. So, under these assumptions, huge returns are expected , and I understand why Bill Ackman is interested in this company. For my assumptions of revenue growth of 8, 12, and 16%, profit margins, and free cash flow at 15, 20, and 25%, I set the P/E and price to free cash flow at the end of 7 years at 18, 20, and 22.
So I do n't think my assumptions are too crazy. I think they are quite likely. The only problem is the number of shares outstanding. As you can see, I was expecting a 0% change in the number of shares outstanding, but they are increasing it by about 2% each year. And if we take this into account, as you can see, the intrinsic value decreases significantly.
So I hope they stop doing that. If you would like to access the table, simply send me an email at the address listed in the description below . In conclusion, I definitely understand why Bill Ackman is interested in this company, as its fundamentals are excellent, its expected growth is impressive, and its valuation looks quite decent.
I personally will wait because I do n't think it's a particularly good deal. I think it's a good deal, but personally I'll wait to see if I can buy the stock at a lower price. I hope this video was useful for you . Let me know in the comments what you think about Uber stock, and I'll see you in the next video.
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