저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
Greenblatt는 소수 종목 집중 투자의 경험을 설명하며, 주식을 사업의 지분으로 보는 관점이 감정적 흔들림을 줄인다고 말한다. 6~8개 종목 집중 시 한두 해에 순자산 20~30%가 빠지는 손실이 주기적으로 발생했다고 회고한다. 현재는 롱숏 헤지펀드로 수백 종목을 분산 보유하며, 분산 포트폴리오가 변동성을 낮추고 복리 측면에서 유리하다고 주장한다. 분산 시 성과가 연 20~30bp 정도 낮은 날이 있다고 언급한다. 위원회 메모 관련 일화도 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
uh well when I first started out I was doing very concentrated portfolios and I did that for quite a long time several decades we had constit by con I mean 6 to8 stocks were 80% plus of our portfolio Okay when you know the businesses really well you know the best way to think about these are actually businesses you know Warren Buffett has a you know I'm going to uh you know paraphrase here but he said imagine that you had a business uh that you sold for a million dollar and now you want to reinvest the money intelligently uh in you know the city where you live and let's say there's hundreds of businesses and you analyze them and you find you know six or eight that uh you know are run by good people have good prospects uh you know nice Returns on Capital you know all good things in a nice future and you did that research and you divided that million doll amongst those six to eight businesses in your city that you know you liked all those elements too most people would kind of call you a prudent person you know you're dividing you did your research but when it comes to the stock market you can get daily quotes on those businesses uh academics would tell you you're insane you know you're taking way too much risk it's volatile and so you really have to think in those terms you know I mean read as much bu it as you can but bottom line is if you want to stay unemotional actually think what you're doing think of businesses uh stocks as ownership shares of businesses it's very very helpful if something happens in Greece and you own a chain store in the midwest okay are you going to sell it at Half Price the next day because something happens in Greece you're probably not even going to think about it but in the stock market you know you're going to get a a much lower quote and bad things will happen you'll think it's relevant in some way and and you know no one who actually owned the business would do anything about that so it's better to think of businesses I mean stocks as ownership shares of businesses is one way to keep yourself sane uh the way we have very divers ified portfolios now because when you go long short and put on Leverage you need Diversified portfolios and so when we used to own how do I stay Sint we used to own six or eight names and every couple years we would wake up Rob and I and we lose 20 or 30% of our net worth in a day or two it would happened like clockwork all the time that was just the way it works when you own six or eight things some things uh not going right for your business or you were wrong on a pick and that just has to happen even you're right most of the time you're going to be wrong and you're and that's going to happen every couple years most people can't handle that but that's just part of the game it has to happen it's mathematically impossible almost not to happen that way uh that the market or you'll just be wrong on some uh when you're that concentrated and and you have to sort of know what you own and be very cold and analytical uh and it's helpful when you actually think I just own a small group of businesses uh now when we have hundreds of stocks on the long side and short hundreds of stocks we're trying to be the insurance company we're trying to be right on average and when we actually have more diversity uh this is a flaw in a lot of hedge funds it turns out you know rather than buy let's say 3 400 of the the cheapest over here we usually weight them based on how cheap they are and short three or 400 why wouldn't we just do the top 50 or 100 and short the bottom 50 or 100 I mean the alpha generation is pretty linear so why wouldn't we do that uh well number one these stocks all the way down here these are extremely infavor stocks they're quite volatile you know a lot of money losers in there up up there these stocks are extremely out of favor much more volatile you have less of them more volatile when you go long short and put on Leverage uh I would say and you have less stocks uh getting aberration bad returns is another euphemism for losses you know uh when when you go long short and put on Leverage you could get what you didn't expect more often when you just have a few volatile names and you could have some negative compounding turns out negative compounding is bad as you all know the math and so when you go long short and have more names up here and more names here uh you have less extreme names on average you have more names you know so less extreme names less volatile more names less volatile another way of saying you get what you expect more often that's why insurance companies don't ensure Five Guys no matter how good their underwriting is someone you know steps off a curb and messes up your numbers you can tell I don't sell insurance um so you when you go long short put on Leverage you uh get what you expect more often you spend less time negative compounding you actually end up with higher returns even though the alpha generation is linear when you go more Diversified you end up with slightly higher returns and a lot less volatility so there's no tradeoff so that's not really the math that most investors look at it's not what typical hedge funds look at they're actually very under Mo most of them are very under Diversified uh even though this is factual this is what happened so these guys did beat these guys but by adding some of these guys uh you can actually make more money by keeping less volatile and so it's one way to so now our bad days to be honest in our Diversified portfolios we underperform by 20 or 30 basis points so that's how we stay same that's our bad day as opposed to losing 20 or 30% of our net worth so we trained ourselves over many years uh to be um you know by being concentrated investors for so long so it's it's complicated I would say that the best idea is to think of stocks as ownership shares of businesses and really believe that really don't you know when I I got on a very big investment board and my uh first memo I wrote with the chairman of the committee said oh this is a great memo you should hand it out and then I almost got shot and my suggestion uh and you know I hadn't been there I hadn't been it was like a really big board I hadn't been on one yet it's about 15 years ago and uh my suggestion was stop reporting your returns to everybody else so that you just do what you think smart long term and you don't worry about how you compare to all the other guys on the lead table of who did the best and who did the worst so no one really liked that idea um and it might not be realistic and but that's the way you should think about investing you know w
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