저자: JAInvesting · 외국인
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ASML은 장기 투자 가치가 있으나 현재 주가는 다소 비싸다는 결론이다. 주가 흐름: 연초 대비 약 33% 하락했고, 52주 고점 약 900에서 530대까지 밀렸다. 레이 달리오의 브리지워터가 약 10억 달러 규모 공매도 포지션을 보유 중이라는 소식이 나왔다. 실적: 2분기 순매출 54억 유로, 순시스템 매출 41억 유로, 설치관리 매출 13억 유로(전년 45억 유로에서 증가). 매출총이익률 49.1%, 영업이익률 30.4%, 순이익률 26%, EPS 3.54유로로 견조하다. 공급망 제약으로 1분기는 부진했다. 가이던스: 3분기 매출 51~54억 유로, 매출총이익률 49~50%. 올해 매출 성장률 약 10%, 세율 15~16%, R&D 비용 8~10억 유로 유지. 중장기 목표: 2025년 매출 240~300억 유로, 매출총이익률 54~56%. 2020~2030년 연평균 매출 성장률 약 11% 목표. 주주환원: 최근 10년간 약 300억 달러 환원, 2013년 이후 배당과 자사주 매입 합계 200억 달러 이상. 시가총액 2160억 달러 중 약 10%가 자사주 매입으로 환원됐다. 재무건전성: 부채 매우 낮고 이자보상배율 126배, 재무 안정성 높음. 자기자본이익률 약 56%, 총자산이익률 약 18%, 투하자본이익률 약 22%. 밸류에이션: PER 38, EV/EBITDA 35로 S&P500 평균보다 높다. PEG 1.44, FCF 배수 23으로 저렴하지 않다고 평가. DCF: 매출 성장률 12%, 영구성장률 4%, 할인율 9% 기준 적정가 558달러, 현재가 535달러로 약 4% 저평가로 판단. 연초 대비 약세와 달리 장기 관점 매수 의견 유지. 출연자 견해: 장기 보유 목적의 분할 매수(DCA) 의지 표명. 달리오 공매도로 주가가 더 떨어지면 추가 매수하겠다는 입장. 리스크: 공급망 제약, 거시경제 불확실성, 1분기 실적 부진, 높은 밸류에이션.
다듬은 글
hi everyone it's chat about another video telling me to remote asml the manufacturer of semiconductor manufacturing equipment particularly the extreme ultraviolet orthography systems which they have pretty much complete monopoly over good stock has not had a fantastic year down 33 year to date so that's worse than the overall market s b is down 20 something percent low 27 recently came out with this earnings report which a lot better than it's been inspected and it's caught some news recently with a big investor decided to open a short position in this company it came down a lot from its 52-week high of nearly 900 532 now i myself opened up a position in this company i want around 600 and another near those 52-week lows i want to discuss how this company's doing right now do a dcf analysis look at the most recent earnings report and decide what things is this company is a buy seller hold over the next five to ten years the investor that announced last month that they assure asml is ray dalio of bridgewater associates one of the most famous investors in the world fantastic compounder of wealth over the longer term healthy billionaire and his company is one of the biggest hedge fund companies in the world if not the biggest right now depending on where the market is and it's short in many many european stocks waging more than 5.7 billion dollars against them because they perceive a decline in value and the largest of those is a one billion dollar position against asml now of course big investor short not the bl and end all it's never good news when a company that you like or others on your watch list is being shorted by one of the greatest investors of all time however what really matters is the coal hard facts and that they were provided in the form of the most recent earnings report and the the earnings were strong net sales are 5.4 billion euros net system sales 4.1 billion and install management based sales of 1.3 billion euros or from 4.5 billion euros last year a decent return not incredible not incredible growth by any means but a decent consistent return quarter of a quarter or year over year sorry gross margin of 49.1 percent slightly reduced over typically these numbers are in the 50 range operating margin 30.4 which is still strong net income as a percentage net sales 26 pretty good and earns for sure three euros 54 cents these impressive q2 revenue numbers have helped claw back the year-to-date numbers because q1 was not so impressive and saw a decent decline in the stock amid again a wider macro economic uncertainty and really tough supply chain constraints considering especially the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines require thousands of components from many different companies all around the world it's a difficult logistical feat to pull off in the current environment but they have around nine billion euros in sales right now they typically do better in the second half of the year so they're expecting their net sales for the year to be around by around 10 which is less than what you would expect and while they gave him guidance earlier on in the year or at the start of the year but the macroeconomic environment is changing very quickly these decent returns are expected to continue in q3 and for the rest of the year net sales between 5.1 billion and 5.4 billion euros for q3 around a 49 to 50 percent gross margin which again is reduced from their averages which is typically above 50 but this is to be expected with a increased cost due to supply chain constraints and the like r d costs are going to stay high at 810 million euros which is something that i really like to see for a company like this that is founded in excellent excellent innovation for the full year they expect slow high chain constraints to drive faster shipments expecting 2022 sales growth around 10 which you know is in line with where we're going right now and gross margin between 49 and 50 so they're going to maintain where they are now not getting worse which i'll be absolutely fine with 50 gross margin well it's not as good as 52 it's still very very strong and estimated tax rate of between 15 and 16 every quarter management gives these key messages for investors and they soften an excellent insight into how the company is projecting life going forward for the next three to four or five years where investors should be looking particularly in this annual revenue target of 2025 of between 24 billion euros and 30 billion euros with gross margin around 54 to 56 and they still believe they still believe they have the opportunity to reach this and they believe this is a realistic target which is absolutely excellent they see significant growth opportunities beyond this and they expect their their systems and install manage base management to provide an annual revenue growth rate around 11 for the whole of 2020 to 2030 which will be an absolutely excellent result for this company this is a company that is gaining real size and scale at the minute if they can continue to do this at excellent gross margins this will be an excellent company to invest in my opinion they continue to strive towards their kpis and esg benefits sustainability which you know is not an absolute must for me in a company but something i really like to see and mo something i really do like to see and is a must for me is significant returns of cash shareholders when free cash flow is going nowhere essentially and that is what they're doing they continue to send cash to shareholders through a combination of dividends which has been grown at a nice rate and share buybacks the dividend record for this company can be a little confusing because only recently have they decided to start distributing the dividends quarterly like many companies of course so that'll be 137 per ordinary share in the in the next quarter in q2 they paid a final dividend of 370.
so 2021 has lovely inflated value however it will return to normal this year and they will continue returning good numbers they frequently grow the dividend in their in their 10 to 15 range it's an excellent company fed not just dividend growth but overall shareholder return they've returned nearly 30 billion dollars over the last 10 years total shares bought under the 2021-2023 program is about 12.4 million at the end of q2 so around 8 billion dollars in the last three years or so excellent numbers you can see in the last since 2013 they've returned 20 over 20 billion dollars in share buybacks to shareholders excellent numbers and they're continuing to do this this is a 216 billion dollar company 10 of market cap also has been returned in just insure buybacks alone not to mention a growing dividend they're able to return so much cash to shareholders because of their excellent margins as a state it's frequently above 50 right now the average for this year is 51.1 percent absolutely excellent for this industry strong for asmr's history because this has continually gone up over time as the monopoly is great and particularly the advent of extreme ultra violet lithography however this is not where it needs to be they're predicting 50 54 to 56 percent over the next five years and this is really where it needs to be getting back to it's been produced recently because the supply can chain constraints however i see getting back to this in over the longer term and once they're consistently performing this is going to be an even more free cash flow positive business operating margin 32 very very strong net margin 28 very very strong particularly for a manufacturing company these numbers are ridiculous and really speaks to how strong of a monopoly in a market grip at asml has return accuracy percentage of nearly 56 absolutely outstanding one of the highest numbers you'll see for a company of this size and scale return asset percentage of nearly 20 well eighteen percent very very high particularly how asset heavy this company as you can imagine the size of the manufacturing facilities the number of parts they have the amount of inventory it's a very high number and return investor capital number of 22 percent while this isn't a fantastic number for asl's history because it's been growing like gangbusters for a long time this is a decent number nevertheless and many many companies will be absolutely dying to have a number like this so i'm quite happy if they continue this over the next 10 years or so this will be a fantastic number for this company on a balance sheet side the cash they never really hold that much cash on the balance sheet because they consistently return it to shareholders or reinvest in the company cash they have one absolutely no concern for me their debt is very very low and they frequently return cash to shareholders and they're an excellent free cash flow generative business so i have no concerns here interest coverage of 126 meaning this year ebit compared 126 years of interest so it's absolutely no concern on debt from here an ultimate score of 6.59 this means it's safe from financial stress this could be much higher in my opinion if they just waited a year of not returning cash to shareholders but who wants that i think this is an absolutely excellent business from both profitability and a balance sheet point of view i think it's only going to get stronger in the near future from basic valuation metric point of view 38 pe and a 4p of 35 not particularly cheap far above the s p 500 averages of course one may argue that a company with 50 gross margin growing sales at 20 a year or so definitely deserves this sort of premium especially with the monopoly i would argue that i've of course invested in this company one point or another however this is objectively expensive a peg ratio of 1.44 is again objectively not a bargain by any means it's a very good price to pick up asmr this is some of the lowest it's ever been i would call a bargain number one one to two is investible but definitely not cheap and even above that is kind of expensive at 1.44 is kind of in that region of buyable but not cheap price free cash flow 23 i look a golden number of under 20 is a nice price to pay this is just about there not really 23 is in inexpensive but definitely not cheap a different story is told for this company completely when you do a discount cash flow analysis now i'm using a 12 growth rate over the next 10 years this is what i'm predicting of course you can make your own predictions based on how you think this company is going to do a finance expectations and what the company is giving you this is my opinion and i think this is a relatively conservative evaluation over the next 10 years they're predicting internal expectations of the growth of revenue at 11 from 2020 to 2030 i believe they can do this happily using a reverse dcf calculation this company requires around 11 free cash flow growth to give it a fair value i'm using 12 because that's what i think it can do over the last 10 years it's averaged 22.6 percent compiled on your growth for a free cash flow agree absolutely excellent numbers and revenue they've done a 14.4 percent compound on your grocery over the last 10 years i think 12 is a fair number based off both fees that revenue will continue to track in line with free cash or free cash flow will continue to track in line with revenue i think they can continue this 12 to 15 percent as they've been doing over the last 10 years over the longer term due to the broad tailwind in the macroeconomic environment for this type of company the semiconductor industry continues to grow and the movement towards a more digital economy so i think using twelve percent free cash flow growth rate four percent terminal stage growth rate and nine percent discount rate this gives a further valuation 558 dollars versus today's stock price at 535 now i don't think there's any real need to quibble over 20 on a nearly 600 stock this is for roughly for value in my opinion i think it's perfectly fine to pay for valuation for a company that's a wonderful business as of course warren buffett says it's better to buy a wonderful business a third price than a fur business a wonderful price this is a business that i really admire i admire how they operate and i love the industry that they're in and i love the monopoly in the hole that they have on it i love how they operate i'll continue to invest in this business i'll continue to dollar cost average at these prices and it's particularly below if they go any further if ray dalio's shorten this company and that makes it go fall down in the near future then i'll be a happy investor invest in this company because i plan to hold it for a very long time providing a continuous return as it does with that being said i'd be interested to you your comments below see what you think of this company see if you think it's absolutely big of an investment see if you think it's completely undervalued right now whatever you want think tell me in the comments below like and subscribe if you enjoy the videos i'll see you again next time
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