저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
요약 보기
애크먼은 주식 시장은 단기적으로 투표기계지만 장기적으로는 가치를 재는 저울이라며 가치투자 관점을 강조한다. 50만 달러(혹은 5천만 달러 표기 혼선)가 현재 수십억 달러로 성장했다고 자평하며, 타깃 투자는 신용카드 익스포저 문제로 실패했음을 인정한다. 캐나다 퍼시픽 철도(CP) 투자는 14% 지분 확보 후 경영진 교체로 주가가 약 3배 가까이 올랐다고 설명하며, 철도 산업이 인프라 재조달 비용과 효율성 측면에서 우수한 사업이라고 주장한다. 전체 26건 중 23건이 홈런이었다는 주장도 편다.
다듬은 글
No, in the short term and Buffett talks about or a famous expression in the short term the market is a is a voting machine. People vote one way or another. Long term it's a weighing machine. Right. Weighing is much more. That's why they call it value investing. That's right. You know, you know, he's not looking at what the stock's going to be tomorrow or the next day.
He's looking at what it's going to be. Sure. You know, as as whether it's a good company or not. Is it a good value or not? Sure. Let me just talk more about you because I mean what it is I mean you've been very successful. You started with 50 million, it's now 11 billion. That's a pretty good growth, I would suggest.
Sure. Um, Target, another retailer. What happened there? What was the result there? Sure. Uh, so you're you're going you're going to not my greatest hits, you're focused on my worst hits. No, I want to go to your greatest hit. No, you just mentioned one, the MIBA. Sure. But that was the greatest hit, wasn't it?
What happened on that was one of the best investments we've ever made. Sure. 30 million became whatever a billion billion. Exactly. That's a pretty good deal for you. Terrific. So that's a hit. It's a hit. So I'm not just focusing on you. Sure. The answer with Target is we took a stake in the company.
We admired the management. We liked the business, but we thought they had a large amount of exposure to the credit card uh to their customers. You wanted them to eliminate that. That's right. And we approached them in the I call it uh the summer of 2007. And we said, "Look, fabulous business. uh your stock trades at a lower multiple than your peers because people are nervous about your credit card exposure.
You can sell that credit card exposure to a handful of financial institutions. They will buy it from you. They will pay you fees for continuing to recruit customers. You can get out of the business of providing credit to your customers. You can take that 8 billion, reinvest it in your business. Your stock will go up.
Uh you'll have less risk in the company and that will be a win. And that was a meeting that we had privately with the management of Target and they seem to love the idea. and they asked us not to share our thinking publicly and ultimately the company did not execute on our advice. The financial crisis hit.
The stock went down from 55 where we had bought it to at one point 25 uh dollars a share. Uh and then uh over time the stock rose back probably in the mid70s today and then I think in the last year or so they finally got rid of their credit card uh uh uh assets. So it was a case where the you were long gone.
We bought in the mid-50s, we exited in the mid-50s. Uh not a great investment. We ended up losing a proxy contest. You know, one of the mechanisms by which we implement uh our ideas if we are unsuccessful uh in convincing management is by going to the shareholders. Do you worry, I mean this seriously, do you worry that you're getting an image that's not necessarily helpful?
Yes. You know, of course that Bill Aman is in there like what they used to be called takeover artist. You know, he goes in he buys the company just so he can pump up the stock and then he's going to sell it and get rid of it. I mean, image on that tone, not reality. Let's talk about image. I mean, look, talk about facts.
If you look at every investment we've made since the beginning of time, active investments, we made 26. Uh 23 of the 26, I think, are best described as home runs. And I could walk through each of them if you'd like. Every investor has made a fortune, obviously, other than the people who were short the stocks on the other side of us.
We've had a few disappointments. I think JC point and penny is a disappointment. Obviously, Target was a disappointment. Targets worked worked out fine for investment. Why? And then uh and Borders Borders was a passive investment and actually management asked us to help when the business got into trouble.
We did our best, but the the the winds of change uh harmed us. But you know, investing is not a business where every investment is profitable. In fact, I would argue that our batting average is extremely high. If you were to talk to the shareholders of Canadian Pacific, uh I think they're it would give you universal appreciation for what we were able to accomplish there.
This is a company that had been the worstrun railroad in North America for the last, you know, call it 10 years. Uh we stock was 46 at the time. Uh we took uh our investment in the company. We bought a 14% stake in the business. We ended up uh replacing uh management with a guy named Hunter Harrison who's really the greatest railroader of all time.
And it's becoming very quickly the best railroad in North America. The stocks tripled or almost tripled over the last uh two years and uh and everyone's happy. But we're not going to not every investment made Warren Buffett made a huge investment in railroads do. Sure. Uh Buffett uh the railroad business is one of the great businesses of the world.
Why is that? Um well, first of all, they're not going to build a new one, right? If you own the second largest railroad in Canada, um you know, this is an asset that was what you Yeah, that's that's Canadian Pacific. you know, was an asset that was created 150 or 60 years ago and you had to the government granted a bunch of land and you know the the the replacement cost of the railroad is you know hundreds of billions of dollars.
It's cheaper to ship by rail than it is by plane. That's right. It's more efficient. It's more efficient. It's better for the uh environment. If you think about uh the trucking you shipping by a truck, you know, the taxpayer pays for the infrastructure, right? the the roads are taxpayer expense in rail.
The railroad pays for the infrastructure. The railroad pays for the rail and the ties, you know. So, it's it's good for uh you know, governments running out of money to it's good for efficiency. It's good for the economy. Look, I think uh because we're so high-profile, we're going to attract some critics.
Um when when you short a stock, you know, there are a large number of people on the other side who don't like what you're doing. Certainly the company's fighting
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