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버크셔 해서웨이가 최근 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄과 베리사인을 추가 매수했다는 소식을 소개하며, 두 종목의 밸류에이션·실적·배당·재무지표를 점검하는 영상. 옥시덴털은 52주 저점 부근이고 내재가치 약 64달러 대비 현재가 약 49달러로 저평가 신호가 언급되나, 실적 순환성과 높은 순부채/EBITDA 비율이 우려로 제시됨. 베리사인은 현재가가 내재가치(약 200달러)와 비슷하다고 평가하며 목표가 여지는 작다고 봄. 월가 목표가 상승 여력은 옥시덴털 약 24%, 베리사인 0%로 언급.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's burshire Hathaway just recently spent $500 million in total on three recent purchases we are talking about accidental petroleum as well as veras sign and when we take a look at his most recent movement what we have notice this isn't a continuation of something he did in the previous quarter as we can see neither verisign or accidental have been purchased in Q3 of 2024 but we do notice they are positions he holds in his portfolio for example ocidental is currently around 5% although this will be higher after the massive purchase he has just made and then when we take a look at some of his smaller Holdings ver sign here around 1% so whilst they aren't large positions what we are noticing is he is getting much stronger convictions in both of these companies and maybe something we should take a look at to consider now ocidental petroleum it is the first one now for those that don't know it is an any company that explores produces and markets oil natural gas as well as petrochemical products globally and when we just take a quick look at this purchase we can see it was on the 19th of December so not long ago where he essentially spent around $49 million very large in terms of his conviction as well remember he does already hold around 5% of his total portfolio but unfortunately right now this company is trading towards its 52e lows and if you were to buy this company right now you would be buying it at a lower cost basis than the great Warren Buffett himself we noticed only one buy rating quite rare on the channel to see Quant with the buy with Seeking Alpha in the Wall Street with the hold but that is what we get in today's episode in terms of the yield 1.81% a forward P just above 14 and over the last year pretty terrible performance down 20% over the last 10 years as well down 40% although if you were someone who did pick this the co lows of around $10 you would be up nearly 5x at around 49 in terms of the current trading price in terms of the earnings not looking too bad over the last four quarters we do get 100% out performance so good historical forecasting accuracy from management although over the next four quarters only two of them anticipated to be positive growth although bear in mind the oil and gas industry is fairly cyclical so this isn't a surprise and good to see over the next four year EPS is expected to grow they're in turn lowering the forward P to 13.6 now if we take a look at their valuation now they get a D+ rating main reason for this right now on a p non-gaap basis they are trading at 14 which is above the 11.6 of the sector median so if you're buying ocidental right now you are paying a 22.4% premium against the sector median and that is pretty much reinforced no matter which valuation metric you do look at now but when we look at the growth at a c minus this probably isn't one of those in our opinion Revenue year onye -7% with the sector median although negative only netive .74 forward looking not looking too great8 a half the sector median at 1.32 and as we can see again no matter which growth metric you do use they do lag significantly against the overall sector in terms of profitability whether they get a which is their Saving Grace here 60 2% on a trading 12-month basis for the gross margin sector median 46 bottom line 16.25 a little bit better than the sector median at 11.5 and when we do compare their cash from operations which looks very large at 11.32 billion that t 581 million now before we talk about our own valuation of this company we can look at some of their underlining metrics very briefly now dividend safety score boardline safe they did in fact increase the dividend at a double digit 22% rate in December last year meaning we should be expecting a dividend increase from them very soon now what does a boardline safe score mean well firstly reaffirmed last month but ultimately sugges a few of the key metrics from the 0709 recession they increased the dividend they had below average growth at -42% and they did in fact outform the S&P quite considerably -23 the S&P itself 55 now whil we did say very nice increase last year we can in fact see a dividend cup due to the negative 25% average over the last 5 years and over the last 20 at 2% pretty much coming in below the inflationary Target we have of 4% and there you can see it from a graphical basis the double cut in 2019 as well as 2020 so in terms of their dividend growth streak it does currently only sit at 2 years so let's just take a quick look at some of the valuations now the first one here is on the forward P remember though we will run it through our own valuation process so we're not looking at this in isolation with the blue tunnel here indicating the fair intrinsic price right now it sits above that indicating severe overvaluation again remember we will run it through our own process but when we look at dividend yield theory that 1.81 well above 88 that is a severe undervaluation signal and we get an overvaluation signal on the forward p as it does sit above the average so lots of different signals and we do not it isn't too far off the energy sector as a whole at 14.2 now remember we said the industry is fairly cyclical so we do anticipate to see this in the numbers and with the free cash flow we won't below 40% for oil producers over the last few years it is fairly low even 19% over the next 12 months indicating to us that we would anticipate this to be another double digit increase year but again that does remain to be seen free cash flow per share we want consistent increases over the long term again cyclicality coming through the numbers and do bear in min 467 again cality pretty much shining through their sales growth as we can see here in fact five of the last 10 years notably the most recent year with a negative drop to their Topline revenue and you can see here from a numerical perspective on top of that what they have also done is ong term increasing it from 781 to 959 in the latest quarter and when we look at roic this is personally one of our favorite metrics to look at where we want 10% or more to 8% for oil producers not looking too bad over the last few years 8% as we can see as well on a trailing 12 month then we get to operating margin and free cash flow again sick locality really shining through the numbers and remember with companies in these type of Industries you really want to be buying them when they are out of favor when no one wants them and then riding them towards the top of the cycle in terms of net debt EIT D remember this correlates to Dividend safety balance sheet strength and these numbers that you see below are the number of years it would take them to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand now 1.71 that is above what we want to see one of the the reasons why we got the borderline safe score Above So something just to bear in mind something to keep your eye on especially if this is one you want to consider in your own portfolio in terms of the intrinsic value we got to $64 in today's episode and as we do our deeper Dives we do run through every single one of these models today getting straight to it with the MOs at 10% something we always start off with execute if it meets our three golden criteria wide moat ell if you believe that a buy up to 57 noticed in today's episode around the $48 Mark you are getting the 25% MOS and Wall Street whilst we didn't get the buy rating they still see this around $61 over the next year and that equates to 24% upside again do give us your thoughts in the comments below but this is one that Warren Buffett himself did make a very large purses just over the last few days now before we move to the next stock jus cover two stops to consider after the market drop that we have seen now we deliver one every single Monday morning for free to your inbox so the next copy is coming tomorrow again we will be releasing January's copy over the next few days lots of information of you can also grab a right now next one we're look at is Vera sign again burshire hathway actually bought this in two transes on the 19th of December as well as the 24th we can see the first one for $45 million and then they added again at just under 29 million now for those that don't know verisign is a technological company they provide domain name registry Services as well as Internet infrastructure to ensure the security and stability of online Communications now in terms of the company itself pretty much flat over the last year over the last 10 years though it has out formed the S&P up 257 right now trading towards the upper end of the 52e range we only get one buy rating again similar to ocidental but this time from Wall Street and it doesn't pay a dividend unlike accidental with a forward P sitting around 25 now in terms of their earnings again very similar they did outperform over the last four quarters and over the next four they only expect one of them to be a decrease and that is the next one Q4 of 2024 now December 2025 which is what we would typically say as their current forward P if they hit their estimate that will be lowered to 23.5 in terms of the other metrics well the valuation they get a d what we do notice though on a p nonap basis of 25 it is pretty much sitting in line with the sector overall but again it will depend on which valuation metric you use that will come to essentially a different conclusion when we take a look at the growth grade well they get a D+ year on-ear 4.1 not far off the sector at 4.5 moving forwards 4.2 marginally lower than the sector at 5.6 and we also notice in terms of the earnings per share it isn't looking too bad 11.64 on a diluted basis above the sector median at 7.81 finally we get to the profitability similar to ocidental they both shine through on this metric analysis A+ gross margin very very high in fact one of the highest we've seen on this channel at 88% above the sector at 51 and their bottom line 56% a lot better than the sector at 3.8 in terms of their cash from operations as well whilst not as much as ocidental 875 million a lot higher than the sector median at 98 million in ter of looking at their metrics well this is something that we want to ideally see from companies consistent increases over the longer term although one or two years a little bit in consistent over the next 12 months anticipated to continue the upward trajectory to $9.56 per share and the sales growth around the 3 to7 that we always say on this channel remember 3: 4 is what we mention at the bare minimum just to keep up in line with inflation and we can see something fairly consistent on a numerical basis on top of that we like the fact that while it may not be very aggressive they still buy back a lot of shares on a consistent basis and that is a positive sign especially because this company doesn't currently pay a dividend now roic absolutely phenomenal I will challenge you to find me any other company where you see very large triple digit 462 just over the most recent year and this is absolutely gorgeous to see on the margins we're talking operating efficiency 56% in 2014 68 on a trading 12 month and the free cash flow this is a free cash flow machine again incredible metrics on the margins no surprises why we did see that A+ score earlier on now net dead to ebit D it is increasing which isn't always something we want to see it is however below the three blanket rule 97 expected over the next 12 months maybe something to keep an eye on but overall it doesn't worry us not a red flag indicator and the metrics as a whole do look fairly favorable now in terms of the intrinsic value today we do arrive at 200 $12 which is around the current price so right now we would say this is trading around its fair value for those that just want to see a 10% margin of safety $182 at 15% 172 and at 20% 162 remember though no margin of safety to run through your own numbers whether it's a very sign or any others we also noticed Wall Street themselves even though they had the buy rating they see no UPS side 0% their price Target $28 over the next year whether you believe any of these are strong companies to consider maybe in fact you are looking at Occidental Petroleum buying it below what Warren Buffett's current cost basis is or maybe none of these fit your overall investment thesis as alwayter we are dropping a new copy tomorr
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