저자: EdYardeni,DavidKostin등패널 · 외국인
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결론: 실물경기 침체는 깊지만 증시는 디지털·바이오 등 구조적 성장 트렌드와 유동성을 반영해 이미 바닥을 쳤다는 시각. 증시 방향과 경기 회복 속도 증시는 3월 23일 연준의 무제한 유동성 선언 이후 바닥을 쳤고, 기술·헬스케어 중심으로 상승 중이라는 평가. 출연자들은 경기가 V자가 아닌 U자형 침체이며, 실업률은 몇 달간 더 오른 뒤 매우 느리게 하락할 것으로 전망. 본격적 회복은 2021년 이후에나 가능하다는 의견. 채권·금리와 시장 괴리 재정확대와 대규모 채권 매입으로 금리가 낮게 유지되기 어렵고, 회복 후 연준이 금리를 올릴 것이므로 현재 금리 수준은 매력이 떨어진다는 시각. 채권시장은 향후 고금리를 반영하고 있고, 주식시장은 침체의 깊이를 충분히 반영하지 못했다는 해석. 기업 실적과 자본지출 S&P500 이익은 2020년 약 18~20% 감소 전망이며, 2021년 첫 회복 후 2022년경 2019년 수준 회복 가능성 언급. 기업 설문에서 기술투자 유지가 최우선 과제(54%)로 꼽혔고, 고용 유지(33%)보다 높음. 공급망 리쇼어링(국내 복귀) 확대가 제약·반도체·통신 등에서 투자와 고용을 늘릴 것으로 전망. 인플레이션과 투자 테마 3D 제조·AI·로봇 등 기술혁신으로 공급망 복귀 비용을 상쇄해 인플레이션은 크지 않을 것이라는 주장. '미국 제조업 재건' 테마가 유망하다는 결론. 주요 조건·리스크: 백신 개발 여부, 기업 파산 증가, 재정 추가 부양 규모, 연준 금리 인상 시점.
다듬은 글
uh when people see carnage like the data this morning they look at futures green how much of that is explained by the stock market trying to sniff out improvements in operating leverage that come in crises yeah i think that's uh part of it uh right now of course we're uh seeing profit margins uh implode uh because that's what they do in recessions and uh this is a depression-like recession that's uh very concentrated probably in the uh first second and third quarters but the market's looking beyond that for sure and it's focusing on trends that were underlying our economy even before the great virus crisis as i call it um trends that have actually been accelerated by the gvc and those trends are mostly digital and biological uh technologies and there are a lot of companies that have a very large market cap in those areas which is why the market has done so well the other thing to consider of course is uh the market i think did bottom on march 23rd uh when the fed said that you know the heck with the bazookas the heck with helicopters we're just going to load up b-52s with the cash and they just carpet bomb the economy with all this cash and uh so the liquidity is there and by the way there's still like over a trillion dollars that was accumulated by the mad dash for cash during march that just sitting there that still i think provides a cushion for any downside in the market david are you of that uh view and what do you say to those who try to argue the bond markets not at all ratifying what stocks are telling us well i think there are a few different things going on here first of all i think the stock market probably will see some further correction here i think there are too many people betting on a v-shaped recovery in the u.s economy we think it is a u-shaped um recession you know this is carved out the first uh you know the left wall of a u here but i think the unemployment rate will come up go up a little bit more in the next few months before it begins to come down then it comes down very slowly and i think you know i i think it's we have to get into 2021 before we see a meaningful recovery and i don't think that that is built into the stock market uh as for the bond market you know i don't think the rates ought to go lower here because we are printing a huge amount of money to buy a huge amount of bonds uh we could see another two trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus here so at some stage down the road the fed's gonna have to you know once we've got a recovery going the fed's gonna have to raise rates and that makes you know interest rates at these levels somewhat unappetizing so i think both the bond mark and the stock market are to some extent looking further ahead and i think the bond market can see that at some stage there will be higher rates to pay for this um and i think the stock market is hoping that this thing is not too long but boy is it deep and i don't think the stock market is quite um reflecting the depth of the recession that we're seeing right now david um on the broader economy if i recall from our many conversations through the years capex is something that you have certainly focused on at least in part i know we're a consumer-led economy but we've had a parade of ceos come on our air virtually every day all of whom are cutting their cap back some very significantly the numbers i'm sure are amounting to a fairly large overall number what impact does that have and sort of how do you see that playing out well what it does is it takes this very unusual virus recession and makes it look more traditional so you can see that in the durable goods report if you look at how orders just collapsed at the end of march and i think we're going to see more problems there so it does extend this it means that you that the federal reserve particularly the federal government have got to try to um you know re-engineer a recovery of in the economy simultaneous with a getting past the buyer situation it's not you know if this was very short it was just about the virus you could just focus on leisure entertainment get that back up and going and you're fine but now unfortunately because of the deeper recession the global recession you are seeing these problems with capex i think you're going to see problems with profitability companies going bankrupt um and that means uh it's going to be more work to get this economy to full employment so you know i'm not i do think that most of the jobs we lost in april we will recover uh within a year of a vaccine but i think it's going to be a long time many years before back to where we were even as you know in february in terms of the unemployment rate we're all used to the idea that the stock market looks ahead it tries to figure out where earnings are going and and can kind of try and get through this trough period uh also that the market kind of rotates toward the areas that are more resilient that's all been going on but overall earnings when do you think s p earnings can get back to last year's levels we're looking at something maybe like an 18 or 20 percent decline calendar year 2020.
when do they go back and what does that mean for the valuation of the overall market i think they could get david sorry about that go ahead let me take this one first and then then i'd perhaps use honestly um i think that we're not going to make it in 2021 i think that 2021 will be the first year of recovery from the virus but i think there is a good chance in 2022.
i mean i think that at that point businesses will be able to ramp up their margins hold wage costs down hold interest costs down so i think if by 2022 we can get back to where we're in 2019 that's what makes these stock market valuations seem not ridiculous here so i do think it's possible but not not next year i think we'll have to wait one more year can i jump in uh morgan stanley yesterday ed morgan stanley did a survey of cfos and ceos yesterday about the second half and they asked about top priorities number one was maintain investment in technology 54 percent uh and maintaining employee count was much lower at 33.
um does that is that going to drive uh your stock selection well i i think it's uh it's driving the the market's uh performance ever since we bought it on march 23rd we've seen uh the nasdaq on fire we've seen technology stocks on fire uh we know the technology in healthcare and the s p 500 account for 40 percent of the market cap of the total index so the market's already figured out that uh the place to be is where the the trends are going to take us at a faster pace and a lot of them are in technology and a lot of them are in healthcare i because of the zoom technology we're kind of stepping over each other but i did want to make a comment on the capital spending id i think a lot of supply chains are going to come back home um particularly in manufacturing of drugs and maybe some of that more sensitive issues of technology with the rights to national security and uh that's actually going to be a pretty good business for a lot of technology companies a lot of industrial companies to help everybody bring these supply chains back home for security purposes and i think that will actually lead to a job creation and i think it also lead to more capital spending and that may turn out to be one of the biggest priorities uh coming out of all this it's not just about what ceos have as a priority but politically speaking some of these issues on the trade side have turned into national security issues which will put a tremendous pressure uh and incentive to uh stimulate those areas of the economy that but yeah causes inflation doesn't it i mean and that's that's got to add a lot of cost conceivably overall well it it it would if uh if it wasn't for technology i think technological innovation is really the key here to allowing us to bring supply chains in critically important national security uh industries uh back to the us like drugs like uh telecommunications and semiconductors and like i mean we're really quite good at all these areas we just have to bring them back home given the uncertainties that were just created i think we're going to go from just in time inventories to just in case inventories and i think uh the the the reason i don't see inflation making a big comeback is we have a tremendous amount of technological innovations in 3d manufacturing in artificial intelligence robotics all those technologies i think are going to allow us to bring tech manufacturing back you know mother's day is coming up here and uh i i think we are going to see uh something to the effect of uh making america manufactured again um and i think that's a trend that's going to be very investable you
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