저자: TravisSickle · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 워런 버핏의 바이 앤 홀드 전략은 유효하지만, 올바르게 적용해야 하며 시장 타이밍에 의존하면 실패한다. 바이 앤 홀드의 사실 근거: 2001.12.31~2016.12.31 다우지수에 1만 달러를 투자해 계속 보유하면 2만 8,698달러가 된다. 최고의 10일을 놓치면 1만 4,679달러로 약 1만 4,001달러 차이가 나며, 최고의 20일 이상을 놓치면 손실이 난다. 최고의 수익일은 9·11 테러 직후 1년 내, 리먼 사태 이후 1년 내(2000년 이후 상위 10일 중 7일), 그리고 S&P의 미국 신용등급 강등 직후 주간 변동성 뒤에 자주 발생했다. 나쁜 뉴스 직후 반등하는 경우가 많다는 의미다. 버핏의 연 20% 이상 복리 수익률을 근거로 제시한다. 바이 앤 홀드가 실패하는 이유: 시장 환경이 바뀌었다고 전략을 바꾸는 것, 개별 종목에서 가치(value)를 이해하지 않고 가격(price)만 보고 사는 것, 전략을 합리화 수단으로 쓰는 것이 주된 원인이다. 버핏은 기업의 내재가치를 알고 있기 때문에 성공한다. 운동선수의 훈련처럼 매수 전 충분한 리서치를 하고, 보유 중에도 사실과 밸류에이션을 주기적으로 재점검해야 한다. 근거가 바뀌었을 때만 판단을 재검토한다. 분산 포트폴리오에서는 개별 종목보다 바이 앤 홀드가 더 잘 작동한다. 특정 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Today I'm going to talk about how to make money with Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice. First, I'm going to talk about the facts on the buy and hold advice, and then most importantly, I'm going to talk about how to use Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice so you can avoid making this one huge mistake when using a buy and hold strategy.
If this is your first time at our channel, or you haven't subscribed, be sure to click on the subscribe button at the bottom. My name's Travis Sickle, certified financial planner with Sickle Hunter Financial Advisors. First, let's take a look at some of the facts on the buy and hold strategy so you can understand that you can apply this to both a diversified portfolio and individual stocks.
First, let's take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So, this chart right here shows us what you would have done if you invested $10,000 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We'll call it the Dow. So, if we took $10,000, so if we took this $10,000 and invested it in the Dow from 12/31/2001 to 12/31/2016, and stayed fully vested, we would have ended up with $28,698.
What's amazing about this is if we had missed just the 10 best days, we would have actually only made $14,679, which is a $14,001 difference. That's a huge difference, nearly double. And you can see here that if we missed the top 20 days, the 30 days, and the 40 days, that our returns would just suffer tremendously.
If you had missed 20 or more of the best days, you would have actually lost money. So, first we talked about missing the best days. Now, let's look at the reasons why that might occur. On this chart, we can see that some of the best days From this chart, we can see that some of the best days in the market occurred after some pretty terrible headlines.
This chart shows us that a lot of the best days in the stock market occurred after some pretty terrible events and news. So, you can see here the first one is these games occurred within a year of the September 11th, 2001 attacks. Seven of the Dow's 10 best days since 2000 occurred within a year of the financial crisis triggered by the Lehman Brothers collapse.
Now, this chart only goes up to 2016, but seven of those 10 days, those best days, occurred within a very short period of time. And the third one is the Dow also rallied after the volatility in the week following Standard & Poor's, the S&P, downgrade of the US credit rating. So, that's some pretty negative news, and then you can see that a rally came shortly after.
And of course, the third and most impressive fact is Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice applied to his 20 plus percent compound rate of return. His ridiculous rate of return, that is incredible. So, you have these three facts that are very compelling to use the buy and hold advice. But, why do we hear that buy and hold sometimes doesn't work, or doesn't work in this market or that market?
And that comes down to using the buy and hold advice incorrectly. So, to think that something has changed where the way that you should invest should also change is a mistake when you're looking at the buy and hold advice. Another one that's a misapplying very often is looking at individual stocks. So, very often when somebody is failing with the buy and hold strategy, it's because they're missing the understanding that price is what you pay and value is what you get.
If you just go out and buy a security, but don't understand what the value is, no matter how long you hold it, it might not meet your expectations, and then you might think that the buy and hold strategy doesn't work. The reason Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice works so well for him is because he also understands what the value of the business he's buying is, or should be.
So, he knows what the price is today, and he can say, "Okay, this is what I think the business is worth." Where investors often get misguided is applying the buy and hold strategy to a company that they really don't know what the valuation is, or what it's worth. They're just hoping that over time it increases.
It's also important to make sure that you're not just applying the buy and hold strategy sometimes, or giving a bias towards buy and hold strategy to convince yourself or rationalize why you're holding a particular stock. Using Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice is not just going out and buying a particular stock because you see a headline, or you saw that there's some new technology that's coming out.
What really makes Warren Buffett's buy and hold advice work is if you think of the analogy of an athlete. So, if you think of an athlete, there's thousands of minutes of training that go into each minute of competition. So, if you're looking at this from an investment standpoint, it's spending the time to do your work and do the research, and really understand the companies that you're buying before you go and make those trades.
And then when you do go buy those companies, it's making sure that you're going back to the facts and the valuations. And even when you do own the security and you're uncertain if things have changed, go back and do more work and more research on the individual position. And if the facts change, that's when you can reevaluate the decisions that you need to make moving forward.
As it applies to a diversified portfolio, it's going to act much differently than an individual stock, so therefore that's why the buy and hold strategy works so well when you're looking at a diversified portfolio. If you've enjoyed this video, be sure to subscribe and leave your comments down at the bottom.
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