저자: Kevin · 외국인
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애플 아이폰12 이벤트를 앞두고 기대감이 과도하다고 판단. 애플 주가 110달러 이하 조정 시 매수 고려, 115~130달러는 비싸다고 봄. 이벤트 후 기술주 전반 약세 가능성 언급. 애플은 포트폴리오 3번째 보유 종목이며 장기적으로는 긍정적 견해.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here so the big apple event is coming up within the next 24 hours and a lot of folks are wondering should we buy apple stock should we sell apple stock or should we just sit on the sidelines before the event and what about after the event and hey wait a minute what's just going to happen to the tech stock sector overall after the apple event because sometimes all it takes is a little bit of poop and the entire market comes trending down a bit and after all since the market has been trending up for the last couple weeks here after september lows well you wonder where that next little prick to that bubble is gonna be but anyway in this video i'd like to run down some of the expectations that we have for tomorrow's event and then i'm going to funnel these all down into some bottom line conclusions about what we should do regarding apple stock keep in mind apple stock is my third largest holding i love me the apple stock following amazon and tesla so i'm super excited to see the event tomorrow though my expectations well i guess you'll find out in just a few minutes but of course make sure to get your life insurance that you can get in as little as five minutes you could apple pay for it down below and you get android pay for it and make sure to want to trade after hours for tomorrow's event you want to make sure you got a platform you could trade after hours with and weeble lets you trade for pretty major extended hours you can trade for four hours after the market closes which is awesome and you could trade as early as 4am eastern time using weeble alright so let's get started the event tomorrow is expected to be the iphone 12 launch event and this was separated from the apple watch event this iphone event is coming in with major hype and it is expected to feature a 5g enabled smartphone possibly as many as a four new smartphones for faster internet on the go analysts are comparing tomorrow's launch to basically have the same potential or power that we saw with the 2014 larger screen event basically where they finally went to larger screen iphones they were one of the last to do it and when they did apple's sales surged 52 following the next 12 months just with the iphone market and this could also potentially rival the 2017 run that we had with apple revenues following apple's introduction of higher priced models and face id in 2017 which that's the weird thing about apple the price goes up here's a new feature and boom great sales but some people actually say it's more than just what they're releasing it has to do with a larger apple upgrade cycle some believe that apple's main upgrade cycle is every three years and that kind of makes sense 2014 and we saw a big run-up in 2017.
well here we are 2020. and statistically 40 of iphone users have not upgraded their phone in the last three and a half years and this is leading some analysts to say and predict this is going to be a potential super cycle of upgrades leading to years of revenue growth and not just for the phone but also for apple's new subscription services which are coming with massive hype because as they say on their website you can now bundle up for an individual family or premiere plan where for on the premiere for 29.95 per month you could have apple fitness 2 terabytes of icloud storage apple arcade apple news apple tv and apple music all included for up to six family members and a lot of people believe this incredible value offered in just this one monthly package for up to six people is a bargain for users and going to be explosive for apple especially as they introduce this next phone cycle and more people potentially look at new features they could use with their new phone which let me be real about this every time i get a new phone the first thing i do is i go look for new apps and new things to do on it even if they've already been around for months so apple might have a point there or maybe the analysts have a point there anyway tomorrow is also prime day which is just sort of a side note but it's kind of funny that prime day was announced tomorrow or for tomorrow october 13th and apple chose to hold their event on the same day some are saying that was done purposefully by apple to kind of uh steal some thunder from amazon but anyway there is a ton of hype for this 5g phone and really i have to say i don't know about you but i'm kind of stuck at home using wi-fi all the time but in the meantime we are expecting four new phones and despite the fact that apple has ramped up 50 in its stock price year to date people are jumping up and down for this people like samsung had their 5g event wasn't that great but you know what maybe apples will be even better so right now all eyes are on apple and this is what we're expecting in terms of products we've got a potential of four new models here they are on screen we've got a potential iphone 12 mini for 6.99 this is leaked information so this has not been confirmed yet but uh will be confirmed within the next 24 hours we've got an iphone 12 max at 6.1 inches the mini would be 5.4 inches 7.99 for the iphone 12 max iphone 12 pro would come in at just under a thousand dollars and then at 1100 we have an iphone pro max which might be between 6.6 and 6.7 inches the current largest phone from apple is the iphone pro max which is the version 11 at 6.5 inches for a screen and remember that's a diagonal measurement so we might get a tiny bit of a screen increase here there are also indications that we the pro version might actually include lidar on their cameras or some sort of feature so that way you have better augmented reality on your phone probably for gaming or maybe even taking measurements just that much better watch out tesla all right then we potentially have two new colors for the phone we're thinking not a nancy blue we're thinking a navy blue or an orange which you see in the apple invitation a sort of a potential hint we've also got a rumor that suggests maybe we might see a an airpods studio those are going to be apple's over-the-ear headphones there we go over-the-ear spelled correctly and maybe even air tags so that way you can put a tag on your keychain or other small things that you keep losing around your house and you could just ping them with your phone which is probably similar to what they have with the iphone and the apple watch right now which i personally really like having the apple watch just for that reason so i can always find my phone it always ends up between the couch cushions potentially a cheaper home pod which is currently 299 dollars which is supposed to compete with the alexa but come on you could get like the little alexa for like 49 and to sort of evidence this apple has already pulled sonos speakers off their shelves as long as other or as well as other third-party material other like speakers and so on from the shelves potentially to make room for this newer product uh i personally am putting this note in here i really think apple ought to come out with some bigger icloud storage especially if they're trying to get more and more people into this sort of icloud suite we need more than two terabytes i mean now we've got 4k cameras these things load up with uh data very very quickly uh the apple fitness suite by the way is coming in late 2020 and this is really expected to give peloton a run for its money at 9.99 per month it comes in at the fraction of the cost of the 40 i think it's 39.99 per month peloton subscription fee uh and this will work out you know work with bike workouts kickboxing you could use it on your watch your ipad your tv you could share it with up to five family members so five family members can get it from 9.99 per month it's not bad coming in late 2020 uh this will also probably be a big driver for apple watch sales the apple watch is really becoming a fitness a tool uh certainly that's apple's attempt to get into the fitness market now here we go so all of this excitement all these new potential potential products are leading to comments like this dan ives says this is a once in a decade type of upgrade opportunity i i don't think that's going to age very well daniel morgan says the latest iphone launches have felt more like ripples as opposed to wave and we need a wave okay dude uh mr striker says the vast majority of those getting in line are going to be this is 5g i need this dude like i don't know if it's just me but i feel like i wouldn't say that like i i i don't know whatever then you've got somebody else here saying this will kick off a significant replacement cycle which we believe will be a multi-year process i don't know sometimes i feel like these analysts are just trying to justify to their shareholders why they have so much apple stock it's a safe stock okay it's a relatively safe stock to own uh but then again you do have uh jeff over from att jeff michelle fresh from att saying that this will actually not be a massive event in fact we have three different varieties of 5g and this is something that's actually pretty important you've got uh you've got ultra wideband here you know what it's actually really easier if i just show this to you on the ipad here let's just pull it up right here uh so that way you can follow along so we've got ultra wide band 5g also known as low band uh and this operates on the 500 megahertz band and this is really good for penetrating buildings and and i think of this as i think uh being able to send the cell data over multiple city blocks think about like penetrating walls and actually getting the data where you need it att t-mobile expected to use this nationwide 5g is what they're calling this but the problem is this is actually not like really much faster the cnbc calls this closer to 4th generation lte speeds so it's kind of like meh cool you labeled it 5g but it's really not then you've got high frequency 5 a g and then you've got millimeter wave a 5g and when it comes to high frequency think about city block wide and when you think millimeter wave it's so limited on distance i think super close like within a house or two uh and so really for us to actually maximize this this 5g penetration we would probably have to see apple announce some support not only for low band but also high frequency here and then we'd actually have to have the infrastructure which we're not quite sure yet if at t and t-mobile and verizon and all these other companies are actually going to be able to provide the speeds that the phone might be capable of this might be one of those examples where oh yay i'm in new york to visit times square and cool look at my fast internet but day to day you're like still on lte uh and so about why are we being so enthusiastic about this again anyway the average expectation on wall street is that iphone revenue will bump 15 this year that is starting october 1st the beginning of their fiscal year through the year so with with all of this what's our strategy for the stock the beautiful thing when it comes to the apple iphone is the apple iphone pushes services sales for well like we talked about fitness or music and so on but it also makes up over 56 of all of the revenue that apple makes from products the apple is the the iphone is the entry point for everything so if the average expectation is 15 in in sales growth over the next year then it wouldn't be unreasonable for us to think that apple could grow at a clip of 12 to 13 if they keep their expenses the same with this over the next two years apple will still be a phenomenal investment but folks here's the problem even if i put in a blended 12 percent growth rate for apple over all of their products and services over the next two years i still get a company that in order to see some realistic growth needs to be valued at a 50 times earnings multiple that is for apple to be worth 161 dollars by the end of 2022 we have to value apple with 12 growth at 50 times earnings i think that's a little lofty i think it's a little bit of a reach so for me i would much rather than buying apple at 126 128 130 i think that's too high rather than buy it there i would much rather get into apple around some weakness i'd rather buy apple under 110.
if i can get apple under a hundred i would be much more grateful but even last month when we had weakness in the market we weren't able to get apple under anything less than 103 dollars per share so if tomorrow ends up being one of those days where it's like yay buy the rumor the stock shot up sell the news because well that was a dud then ideally apple should be a buy somewhere under 110 dollars per share that's when i'd be interested in buying apple a little bit more heavily unless there was some broader market weakness now if it's at 115 maybe would i nibble a little bit sure i've done that before but that's my expectation for apple i can't keep buying once it's over 115 it's just too expensive for me personally now in fairness i will buy apple as sort of a broader portfolio and in a case like that yeah sometimes i'm buying apple over 115 but for buying apple individually i'm gonna be a little bit more cautious here remember it's my third biggest holding so i'm excited about apple long run but i think the expectations here are a little too high now i will say cnbc pro the pro edition the one you have to pay for tells us that in the six months following any iphone launch apple has consistently outperformed the s p with smaller losses and down periods and bigger gains during growth periods and i believe this however shortly after apple release events apple stock has a tendency of falling it wouldn't be a shocker for us to see exactly what happened with tesla's battery day happen to apple where we get this great new product we get this great new announcement but wall street says yeah that's not as great as we were expecting we were expecting steve jobs to come up from the dead and introduce the iphone 20 that has teleportation and since that's how hypey the market tends to be it would not shock me to see apple on sale after the event tomorrow so if you wake up tomorrow and decide no okay maybe i'll add later i wouldn't blame you but i could be wrong i'm not a prophet that's just my opinion i believe just looking historically we're probably going to see a softer reaction to the apple market and here's here's the exact way to play this in my opinion i don't want to tell anybody to go buy or sell or buy options instead here's how i would play this if apple falls under 110 maybe under 115 tomorrow after the event buy buy you can't go wrong buying apple in my opinion and honestly even if you buy it at 125 130 in the long run you're probably still going to be okay i'm just personally not interested in taking money that i could use in other opportunities at a price that's that lofty for apple in the long run still holding a lot of apple so i can't say i'm an apple bear but i will say i'm only buying if we get a nice little dip tomorrow and keep in mind what happened after both battery day and the stock split for apple and tesla the entire tech sector was sort of dragged down after wall street's like yeah and this tank isn't as great as i thought it was all these young kids yeah that just seems to be my impression of what wall street sounds like these days and so it wouldn't surprise me to see some weakness anyway that's my recap i will be getting the iphone 12.
i have enjoyed the i watch six although honestly i can't tell the difference between the six and the four but uh i guess i'm whipped everything that i know about real estate investing stock investing and of cours we'll see you next time thanks so much you
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