저자: CryptoCurrencyAwareness · 외국인
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but I do want to just get to one other top because we talk about everyday Bitcoin it is out of control like look let's let's talk Bitcoin mm mm 12 I was introduced to it I started to accumulate accumulate 2013 I wrote an article and York Joe hold on just a week just so we know we can feel bad about ourselves you're accumulating it at what price well my dollar cost average is around a hundred and something and and you've held it everything you've bought well at one point myself and you know two so I was introduced to it by a person I asked him if I could disclose his name he said no but he myself and another person all three of us relatively well known in the valley we went we started at one point we owned almost 5% of the entire firm in 2013 we've sold they've sold etc etcetera I wish we had kept it all we didn't it's fine but then I wrote an article and I said you know what there's so much asymmetric upside here this is a thing that either goes to you know at the time I said roughly the value of gold and at the time it was about $100 a coin and so there's very little downside there's all this asymmetric upside I said take 1% of your net worth and buy this schmuck insurance and it's a schmuck insurance in this kind of very elegant beautiful ways did I miss this Hawkins yarn that was that $100 though what would I mean I I actually started hearing from people that I know very well who don't often invest who are now asking me if this is the time to do bodies much insurance now here's the thing this is now a confidence game right there is no real utility in this this is a fantastic fundamental hedge and store value against autocratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly you cannot have central bank's infinitely printing currency you cannot have folks with you know misguided and misdirected monetary and fiscal policy okay you just called it a confidence game right and we've done okay the economy's built on central banks and built on on fiat currencies where you said yourself how much better life is and in every respect and it's ever been and that's with that as a interest so we've seen the first few chapters of this and now we have to go through this great unwind right when all this liquidity now what what has to do what happens we'll see what happens and so all I'm saying is to have the ability to hedge that out right in a way that isn't fundamentally correlated to the people and the infrastructure that made those decisions that we were not a part of fundamentally I think is a smart at that point is if you haven't jumped on this bus or train or whatever so vehicle you want to describe it as has it left the station no so here's what I would say the same way that I said in 2013 put one percent of your net worth into Bitcoin I will put myself out there today I think this thing is a hundred thousand dollars a coin probably in the next three to four years and I think it is in the next 20 years a million dollars ago so there you have it you're you're telling people to put 1 of 1 percent of your net worth at the time that's firm it's a lot pardon it but that's for people who have money to play with I mean if you're talking to an average retail investor who's looking at this somebody who's trying to figure out should I put it in my 401k or should I put it in Bitcoin you would tell them what well I don't think that's their actual trade-off in your 401k so for example in your IRA I'm saying that there are people who have to make decisions about these things who are fully invested into a 401 so what I'm saying is I own a lot of Bitcoin in my IRA it is possible so I did take a small percentage and I put it in there all I'm saying is there's a Scot tax advantaged way absolutely but you have money to play with but what I'm saying is you could buy the sp500 index by 99 percent of that so if you have a hundred dollars to invest what I'm saying is what one dollar one dollar and and the reason that one dollar is so valuable is that it is fundamentally not correlated to the other 99 and just on the off-chance but all the people that manage the 99 may not totally know what they're doing the one dollar may actually save us all okay we are going to be spending a lot more time with you and talking you on so many other topics as well and I'm sure we'll come back to Bitcoin I choose to thank you thank you mama all of your Fed worship we found out today has been misplaced because sure math our guest says you should sell based on the feds and other central bankers unbelievable missteps you should sell everything and buy Bitcoin because speaks so bad so far that's why I said that the world the dollar crashed like all the Fed critics thought it was gonna happen and it fly might have started off now the past was an absolute perfect judge of the future we'd be all set you didn't Tomas I totally might set up a straw man you didn't say sell everything and put it in actually didn't say he didn't say that but what Tomas did say but still wouldn't argue it but if there's if there's just slightest chance that these guys are somewhat conflicted or clueless or not you know have different irons in the fire for the way they manage currency you should have something that isn't affected by all that that's not correlated with what central bankers is if I got that I think that's basically right I think you have to basically have a what if the Skyfall strategy in any time and the correlator doesn't correlate with right let's go back to 2008 when we thought there were differences in correlations and asset values and what we found out in 2008 was as Jackson Browne sang in the in the fury of the final hour that all there was a it's a great line it's a great line that really says it describes the financial crisis in any event when that happened all correlations went to one right so we don't know what bitcoins correlations really are I mean correlation what I what I really is what I'm talking about is at the end of the day this is a string of letters and numbers that was generated on a computer that sits in a secure wallet it guru truely is in the functional utility of the world uncorrelated to anything it is an idea and it is a belief system and that may scare people here's a correlation is determined by those who hold it though relative to their other assets do you have any anxiety that it's Korah that its current rise is is correlated to a market bubble meaning that exactly there reflects that there's just too much money sloshing around and people have so much money that they're looking for these sort of any opportunity to way that they might not of two and three or four years ago I think bubbles happen when there's a scale of importance and I think it's very unfair to look at a market that's still measured in the you know few tens of billions of dollars and call it a a market to begin with and then be that there's a speculative bubble maybe that can happen from time to time at such small scale I think what's more likely is that there's just an overwhelming number of people who literally don't even know what bitcoin is right and then there's a very very small number of people who are at the periphery lookie looing having opinions but have never even bothered to read the definition it's a good phrase you know have never bothered to open in a wallet have never bothered to even read the Wikipedia article but they want to correlate it to a framework they understand because it's safe and what I would say is I would suspend disbelief which is what I did in 2012 it took me 18 months to understand unreasonably technical and so what I would say is other people if they took the time may come to a very different conclusion than what is the obvious negative Nelly conclusion I think it would be really elegant if the the bubble itself helped create the answer to what caused the bubble in other words the the central bank can I completely agree with you that would be a real in the way the universe were you know it works that would be interesting because then you'd really see whether the emperor had closer to done see the there is a bubble from all the money sloshing around that's the real Bitcoin is the answer to the profit I thought the market was up on the Trump economy I'm not necessarily talking about but this is an unusual time where all assets seem to be inflated to a higher degree and the question is whether or not the Fed has inflated this when when when you look at what's happened to the money supply a lot of this extra liquidity in bank or excess reserves has not been converted or created into either loans or money Joe and so the idea that somehow there is this froth or bubble in the system from the Fed is a little bit negated by the idea that it's not been turned into money it's it's the bond bubble the stock market right say on a on a price-to-earnings basis is not in bubble territory can I can I do you think that's not working but I don't I don't know I don't think about the stock market but let me do some I don't think it's it's the underlying earnings that are this is based on the Fed is reducing its balance sheet and it has plans to reduce its balance sheet you would think that in that case the market would price in the forward plans of the Federal Reserve in that time period long paper has declined in yield that's because that's because of its a global bond market now it's their central bankers head of the or maybe there's tremendous underlying demand for long dated risk assets and it's not a bubble I mean at the yields in which they offer I just don't think that really is true but people are going out every day and buying in this market not at gunpoint from the government right you could almost make an argument that we have a deficit of long-dated paper at the market desire that's because in Japan you get 50 cents a year on a thousand dollar ever the reason private hands are going in right and their stuff and their their logic
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