The Next 16-Year Stagnant Economy by Nouriel Roubini

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결론: 루비니는 향후 장기 경기침체와 인플레이션(스태그플레이션) 가능성을 경고하며, 구체적인 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음. 경기 사이클 배경: 최근 14~15년간 경기침체가 없어 주기상 침체 시기가 도래했다는 진행자의 문제 제기가 있음. 루비니 주장: 세계 경제가 취약하며 성장 둔화가 우려되고, 부채 함정 때문에 돈을 계속 찍어낼 수밖에 없어 장기 인플레이션이 예상됨. 공급 충격: 공급 충격은 성장을 낮추고 생산비용을 올리는 요인으로 설명됨. 주식시장 역사: 1970년대 대폭락 이후 주가가 오랜 기간 저조했던 사례를 언급하며, 이번에도 10~15년간 횡보·하락 흐름이 이어질 수 있다는 시나리오가 제시됨. 전반적 회복 지연 가능성을 강조. 출연자 신뢰도: 2008년 금융위기를 예측한 인물로 평가되며, 나심 탈레브가 그를 높이 평가했다는 점이 언급됨. 진행자 결론: 루비니가 과거 예측에 성공했으므로 그의 견해를 들어볼 가치가 있다는 취지.

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01. so it's been nearly over 14 15 years since the last sort of recession a recession has been happening on average every 10 years over the last two centuries so we're like long overdue for upcoming recession and there's this guy named nouriel rubini who apparently was the only person that actually predicted the 08 recession so i have no idea what does it mean to actually predict the recession let's go ahead and do some research and check out who this person is my name's andy mai i'm 22 years old i'm the founder of studying.com we're on track to grow to a million dollars per year i'm here just to document my journey from zero to a million to ten minutes or billion dollars and i just wanna document this journey on youtube channel just like i've been doing over the last four years and i have nothing to sell you whatsoever let's jump right into today's video okay let's search up wow okay here's an economist let's go just twitter first i usually get a people vibe of people through their twitter let's check his twitter it's basically an economist so does economic forecasts interesting okay let's go to this website he's written quite a bit of books continuing economics interesting let's go to me youtube of a mild market moving inflation a mild stagnation environment curious to see if he has any predictions he's predicting mould inflation or stagflation well i fear that the global economy is going to remain fragile uh there was supposed to be a strength in our economic growth but right now we can slow down our growth supply interesting so saying that we're going to continue printing money because we're in a debt trap where if you don't print money we're not going to be able to pay everyone's debt so that means we're going to be going through long term inflation so there's all these sort of supply shocks and when there's a supply shock how does that affect things let me go over that part again decreases growth and increases costs for production so let's go to stock market in 1970s okay we saw this massive crash here so it shows that in the 70s there was a pretty big crash and it just stayed low for a period of wow so that means we go through a period of just like 10 to 15 years of just everything's just slow things are going up down on a sort of downward trend like we're not we might have a pretty decent crash but we're not going to recover in four or five years it's just gonna just gonna just be steady for like 10 years 10 15 years so by then i'm going to be like 35 37 or something which is just crazy to think about interesting prediction but why does this say went up 16 breather 16 year breather wow interesting so that is no real robini prediction on what's gonna happen pretty interesting guy sounds like i sort of understand what he's trying to say and apparently he's one of the guys that predicted the 2008 recession says a lot of credibility he's been given a lot of credibility by uh what's this image nassim taleb who is the writer of the black swan so you should really like if he's predicted things before um then you should really listen to this guy so yeah hope you guys enjoyed this video that's me just putting research into people and things i want to learn hope you guys enjoy this video let's drop a comment below follow my instagram hit the subscribe button notification bell like this video peace