원문 보기
as fears Mount over the economy as uh heading the that the economy might be heading towards stagflation our next guest says that the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflation area environment of the late 1970s for more on the markets ahead of the busy week that we've got this week with the earnings and the fed's policy meeting we want to bring in Ed yardeni he is the president of yardeni research and Ed this idea that it's not going to be just like the 1970s stagflation is a pretty good one on a Monday morning makes us feel better about this being a Monday explain yeah I want you to feel better look uh I think last week when we got the GDP report uh the the nerk reaction was that the data was stagflationary because real GDP was up only 1.6% but a lot of that was because uh we imported more and we also see saw less inventory accumulation the the final demand in the economy was still actually very very strong in addition the uh there was concerns about the pick up in inflation during the the first quarter I think some of it was kind of funky January February effects uh but we still do have a problem with the so-called super core inflation rate uh which is the consumption deflator for services excluding energy and including excluding shelter that's kind of stuck around three and a half percent recently but I I think that's going to come down one of the problems we have on the inflation side really is auto related autor related insurance and uh repairs have been a real real problem on the inflation side I don't know that there's much the FED can do to repair your your car or to offer you auto insurance but uh that's that's bound to slow down it's just been on fire for so long so all in all the economy is still doing well on a year-over-year basis we're still seeing a moderating trend in inflation so I don't think this is stagflation at all you also don't think that the markets are going to continue to melt up though and that that that from your perspective is a good thing the idea that May pause for a while here yeah you know just because uh I I I would like that doesn't mean it's going to happen but uh I actually was concerned that the market was going up too fast and that it was being led by the valuation multiple and we got the forward PE and the S&P 500 up to 21 now we're back down to about 20 so it hasn't been that much of a correction in in the PE but I wouldn't mind if the PE just kind of stayed here for a while and uh it was an it turns out to be an earnings Le U bull market from here on I think for now we we could very well just pause the market still I think uh there's a expectations for two rate Cuts still in the market and I think we need to be disabused of that notion because I don't think there going to be any rate Cuts this year but you know the Market's also looking a year ahead and a year ahead sometime into next year uh there could be a couple of rate Cuts what what surprises me is you've got a pretty strong forecast even though you're talking about a pause here you've got a strong forecast for where the S&P will be be for the end of this year not to mention where it's going in 2025 and 2026 you want to lay that out in fact let's bring back up the S&P 500 right you can see how far we've come since November yeah it's been extraordinary and uh look it's been my opinion since November of 20122 that it's been a while here that uh we're in a bull market uh the bull market had a nice run from that point through um you know La last year last last August um and now we we've seen a we saw a correction there for a little while uh then we made a low in October 27th of last year and it's was a vertical Ascent almost in the market it it was feeling like a melt-up scenario and I think it's just going to be a pause for a little while but I still think that the underlying earnings story is a solid one uh I think the valuation multiple is a bit uh high but I think earnings can lead this market up to 5400 by the end of this year for the S&P 500 6,000 next year and 6,500 by 200 you know 2026 25 and 25 26 forecasts are not really all that bold when you kind of look at the percent changes but they sound pretty good yeah they sound pretty good and I I guess you're calling for a pause not a pullback what a big pullback surprise you well I mean we have had a pullback really um I guess from the peak on March 28th we saw the market come down below its 50-day moving average it was down five and a half percent I was thinking we could get a five to 10% kind of Correction not not an official correction of 10% or more um I think we we may very well have have seen it um but I think from here on there's still the geopolitical uncertainties I know the Market's suddenly acting as though you know all is well in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine well we know it's not um maybe what the market figures out is that even if these situations continue to deteriorate um as long as supply of oil isn't affected coming out of the streets of harmo uh that there's plenty of oil available even in a geopolitical crisis situation
댓글 0