저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 마크 페이버는 2018년 2월 시점에서 미국 증시가 과열된 버블 국면이라 보고, 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나 장기적으로 최소 20% 폭락과 글로벌 경기침체를 경고한다. [시장 상황 진단] - 2009년 3월 이후 S&P500은 약 4배 상승, 2016년 2월 이후 2년 넘게 5% 이상 조정이 없었음(역사상 최장 기간급). - 미국 신용거래(margin debt)가 금액, GDP 대비, 시가총액 대비 모두 사상 최고치. - 1월 주식 ETF에 1,000억 달러 이상 순유입, 개인투자자 현금 비중은 매우 낮음. 전형적인 시장 고점 신호로 제시. [버블의 원인] - 2015년 이후 미국 중앙은행 대차대조표 확대는 끝났으나 유럽(ECB), 일본, 중국이 유동성을 공급해 글로벌 자산가격이 상승. - 자산가격(주식·부동산·예술품·우표·클래식카 등)에 실질적 인플레이션이 발생. [단기 전망(일~주 단위)] - 최근 약 10% 급락으로 단기 과매도 상태, 당장은 반등 가능성 있음. - 다만 신고점 경신은 기대하지 않음. [중장기 전망과 리스크] - 장기적으로 여전히 과매수, 주식이 매력적이 되려면 최소 20% 추가 하락 필요. - 1987년 블랙먼데이와 달리 현재는 주식시장 시총이 GDP의 150% 이상, 채권·부동산 가격도 극단적으로 높음. - 20% 하락 시 글로벌 경기침체로 이어질 것이며, 이후 금리는 하락할 것이라 봄. - 조언: 주식 전액 보유자라면 일부 청산, 보유 비중이 크다면 반등 시 비중 축소. 과매도를 매수 기회로 보지 말 것. [금리·촉발 요인] - 미국 2년물·30년물 금리 급등과 인플레이션 부활 우려가 최근 하락의 촉매로 지목됨. 2014년 저점 1.43%에서 2.7% 이상으로 상승. - 금리 상승 추세는 1년~1년 반 전부터 진행 중. 배가 한쪽으로 기울어진 상태에서 작은 파도(돌고래 비유)로 전복된 것이라는 비유 사용. [기타 발언] - 암호화폐(비트코인)는 급등 후 대칭적으로 급락하는 경향, 2000년·2008년·1973~74년 약 50% 하락, 일본은 고점 후 2년 내 70~80% 하락 사례 언급. - 정책 당국의 논의는 실질적 문제 해결 없이 쇼에 불과하다고 비판. - 호황에 대한 낙관 시장 분위기가 고점의 전형적 신호라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Marc Faber, thank you for taking the time for us. The question is, what is going on at the moment? Yes, well. The markets have risen very strongly, they have since...March 2009 for most stock markets, especially for the S&P 500, and we have risen almost fourfold, and since February 2016, so more than two years, we have had no correction, no more than 5%in the S&P 500, which is the longest period without a 5 percent correction, and we have many signs, symptoms that usually occur when a major top is taking place or becoming apparent.
For one, we have record margin debt in America. They are at record highs, not just in numbers, but also as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of market capitalization. Then we had an inflow of over 100 billion dollars into stock ETFs in January, a real record. And we have very low cash balances, uh, among retail investors at brokers like Charles Schwab and others.
And these are normal signs that a market top is occurring. So in other words, you actually expected it to correct, and then it didn't correct for a long time; is that the point? It is very strange that it has just kept going. Right. Uh, but that is the symptom of a bubble, that prices detach from reality and reality is not quite as brilliant as it is portrayed.
Yes, the economy has recovered, but we must also analyze why the central bank balance sheets have been increased significantly. And uh, that has come to an end in America, the expansion of the balance sheet around 2015, but it has continued in Europe, i.e., the ECB, and in Japan of course, and also in China.
And that is why the markets worldwide have risen again, and when stocks rise and real estate markets rise and bonds rise, people make money and the whole economy seems better until one day they stop rising and then it doesn't go so well. So one has been able to stretch the upward movement for a longer time through all the central bank money that has been fed in.
That pleased everyone, but then actually, just two weeks ago in the Wall Street Journal, it was warned that a sudden crash could now come and sink everything. What happened there? How, how, how come it's so sudden? I want to orient myself, so to speak, towards where it is coming from. Do you understand?
I find, uh, that this is such a, uh, sign or symptom of a bureaucracy that has become far too large in the world and also far too influential. And then they sit together and talk a lot and do nothing, but they feel good and say a few things about where it's all going, entertainment and such. But when it comes to effectively solving problems, there are none; it's just a lot of talk and so on, and it's all show business.
But the point is that now everyone is optimistic and the markets are too. That is precisely what always happens at a market peak. You don't find any negative news; it doesn't exist. Everyone is positive and, uh, there are no signs as to why the market would fall, and everything looks good. And the funny part is: March.
Nobody understood that the market was recovering, and we still had three prominent economists who said the S&P would fall to 400. They didn't have a clue. Uh, the market was so oversold and had fallen for two years, i.e., 2007 to 2009. It was probably a buying opportunity. And now it's certainly the level in early 2009 and large constantly sold, but now you have practically no one left who has sold, or there are these funds that are negative and their assets under management, they have shrunk very strongly over the last few years, so there's practically no one left in a position.
And what is also added, like nowadays, and that is similar to '87, back then we had portfolio insurance. And nowadays we have funds that play along and trend followers, that is, the quant funds. Basically, they are funds that mathematically play along as long as the market rises, and if it ever falls through certain levels or support levels, then they can change their positions and sell everything, and that brings the large volatility that we saw yesterday.
Exactly that is the point; the trigger for the recent movement is likely interest rates. With interest rates, what happened with the two-year and thirty-year bonds in America is that they suddenly rose quickly and people are talking about a comeback of inflation again. How do you assess the details of this story?
Yes, well. Well, uh, central banks have wanted to create inflation, right? And, uh, the two-year government bond, that's true. Interest rates haven't just risen; they've actually been rising for a while, haven't they? Uh, they reached a low in 2014. 1.43%. And then we went to 2%, fell to 2%, and now we are over 2.7%.
But what I want to say is: the interest rate trend has been underway for a year or a year and a half, that interest rates will go up. Well, I think the factor that really triggered this, you have to realize, imagine a boat, and then somewhere you see a few dolphins, and all the passengers on the boat move to one side of the boat to see the dolphins.
The boat tilts because all the passengers are on one side, and when a boat is no longer balanced, but is already leaning to one side, then you don't need a big wave to tip it over. That's what happened. That's what happened. A nice analogy. Mr. Faber, what do you expect to happen in the next few days and weeks?
Yes, that is not so easy to explain, but fundamentally it is as follows: In the very short term, measured in days, the stock market is very oversold, or it has fallen very sharply; let's say, from the high, most stocks have fallen by around ten percent within a few weeks or so. And then I would expect that today or Monday it will recover, but I don't assume that it will reach new highs.
I don't believe that. But it cannot be ruled out. Then we also have to analyze consumer spending and so on, but basically I don't believe in a new high, but from a longer-term standpoint , the stock market is of course by no means oversold, not at all. From a long-term perspective, it is still insanely overbought, i.e., too high, and the stock market will only become halfway attractive, let's say, when it drops by a minimum of 20 percent.
Drop significantly once again. What will that mean for bank balance sheets? Yes, if a bank is well-managed, you know that they make money in every situation . They might lose their clients 'money, but the bank's own bonuses are almost always guaranteed. But what I am saying is that what is important to recall is that in '87, between August 25th and October 19th, the stock market in America fell by a total of 41%, and on October 19th alone by 21%in one day; people say the stock market in America has never fallen by so many points.
That is true, but in percentage terms, it is nothing like 21%. At the current high level, that would be, well, a thousand points or more, in short. I think today is quite different, in that in '87 no recession followed, and real estate prices were not very high. The bond market was still yielding nine percent, and the stock market value as a percentage of the economy, of GDP, was only 40%.
Now, the stock market is over 150%of the Gross Domestic Product. The bond market is, of course, a multiple of the global Gross Domestic Product. Real estate is sky-high, but so is art, stamps, collectibles like old cars, and so on. Real inflation occurred in asset values, and if those asset values drop by just 20%, it will have a massive impact on the economy.
So, it is essentially the biggest meltdown and the biggest bubble we have ever experienced, if you just take that 20%drop, because everything is so high. What does that mean for the economy? What does that mean for people? What, what happens then? Well, you know, a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, and a depression is when you lose yours.
So, I have the feeling that if the global stock market drops by 20% it will lead to a global recession, and then, of course, interest rates will fall, because people always say interest rates are rising and that's why the stock market is rising. But nobody has really considered what the actual effect of the stock market is on interest rates.
Or that it is a major factor, because companies that also speculate in stocks, buy back their own shares, and can drive up valuations, and that is why I would say, if I had my entire fortune in stocks right now, I would liquidate and reduce a portion of it, and if I had a large share in stocks, I wouldn't use this oversold situation as a buying opportunity, but rather, if it rises by, say, 3, 4, 5%, I would reduce my position.
You are talking about a recession, a global recession in the end. Just recently, everyone said now we are finally entering a real economic boom, especially in Europe, everything is looking good—you are painting a different picture. It’s interesting, when do you expect this? How long does it take until people's thoughts and the image of a recession suddenly materialize?
Yes, how is it...if the stock market drops by about 20%, which is certainly possible, then I would say the pain will begin. And that happens quickly, so it can happen in a matter of weeks, that was the case in '87, for example, but I don't expect that. But as I said, we have seen bubbles with Bitcoin, they fall often faster than they rise, or they are symmetrical.
They fall at least as fast as they rose. If they quadrupled in America in a few years, they could fall relatively quickly. Or we saw a 50%drop within two years, take the numbers from the year 2000 and around 50%in 2008 and around 50%in the year 1973/74, and in the case of Japan, it always fell by 70 to 80%within two years of the peak.
So, once it starts to slide... that is what "Dr. Doom" says—or now comes your boom, you personally always hit your peak form when it really gets stormy in the markets. Many thanks, Mr. Faber, for the conversation and warm greetings to Thailand. Yes, thank you very much. All the best. Bye
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