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워런 버핏의 애플 투자 사례를 통해 가치투자와 퀄리티 투자의 결합을 설명. 버핏이 2016년 애플을 PER 약 10배, ROE 43%일 때 매수했으나 현재는 S&P500 대비 약 50% 프리미엄으로 비싸져 일부 매도한 것으로 해석. 장기 데이터상 가치·퀄리티 전략 모두 시장을 상회해왔으나 개별주 집중 투자는 어렵다고 결론.
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Warren Buffett arguably the greatest investor of all time surprised a lot of people recently when he announced that he's selling some of his investment in apple yes that Apple the world's leading seller of dopamine dispensers it's not a huge haircut but the reason he's likely doing it now and the reason he bought Apple in the first place is an investing lesson from the master incidentally this is the last video of the season and the reason I picked this subject is because it combines a lot of the things that I find most interesting like investing stocks markets and of course Warren Buffett I love that guy it also gets deep in the data and this is after all do the math all right let's dive in apple needs no introduction obviously but in case you're not super familiar with Warren Buffett he's the longtime CEO of Burkshire Hathaway a huge conglomerate that owns a bunch of businesses it's a $900 billion company and the eighth most valuable business in the world you can think of it as a giant mutual fund or ETF that holds a bunch of Investments Buffet has collected over the years like apple American Express Coke and a bunch of other great Brands there's so much to say about Buffett that it could fill a Ken burnses Marathon documentary but the short story is that no one has ever managed as much money as Buffett for as long as he has and with as much success to understand why Buffett bought Apple in the first place and why he likely sold some of it recently it helps to know a little bit about Buffett's Journey let the journey begin and what that record shows is that since 1965 for nearly five astonishing decades an investment in birkshire returned 20% a year more than twice the return of the S&P 500 that result is so unfathomable that it's hard to put in perspective but let me try give it a try give it the old College Tru close to 90% of professional stock Pickers I don't mean people playing around with stocks in their basement I mean professional stock Pickers lose to the S&P 500 over 10 years or longer and of the few who win most are lucky to eek out a percentage point or two over the S sp500 managing a few billion dollar over a career of 5 to 10 years just to summarize while managing a growing pile of money that's now close to a trillion dollars Buffett doubled the return of the S&P 500 over five decades making him the goat he was the greatest of all time but Buffett didn't do it alone and he evolved as an investor along the way a big part of that Evolution was the influence of his longtime business partner Charlie Munger who passed away last November a month short of his 100th birthday people don't seem to get that point you have any idea why War if people weren't so often wrong we wouldn't be so rich in berkshire's most recent annual letter Buffett credits Monger as the architect and says that he merely carried out monger's Vision that's a huge overstatement in typical Buffett modesty which is another thing about Buffett no one as great as he is has that much humility especially when it comes to money still it's true that Buffett would not be the same investor without Munger when Buffett started out he was a classic value investor a strategy he learned from his teacher and Mentor Ben Graham quick side note Ben Graham wrote the greatest investment book of all time called the intelligent investor which I highly recommend okay back to Buffett he started out as a value investor which is a strategy that buys companies that are cheap relative to some attribute such as assets earnings sales cash flows or some combination of those things for example Apple trades at about $190 a share and is expected to generate earnings per share of about $660 a year so that gives at a price earnings ratio of about 29 a value strategy might be to buy the cheapest 50 stocks in the S&P 500 which today would have an average price earnings ratio of about nine a third of the price of apples when Grand pioneered value investing in the 1920s he didn't have the data to prove that it worked but we do now well then let's have a look shall we and what that data shows is that value investing has worked phenomenally pretty much no matter how you did it here's one example according to one data set that goes back to 1926 the cheapest 30% % of US Stocks by Price to Book value meaning the companies with the lowest price relative to their assets have beaten the most expensive 30% by about 3 percentage points a year the cheapest 30% also beat the most expensive 30% close to 80% of the time over rolling 10-year periods so value investing works or at least it has worked for a long time the thing about value investing though is that cheap companies are cheap for a reason they're usually going through a tough time like Airlines during the co pandemic or their old businesses like Detroit car makers for GM or they don't make a ton of money like many US Banks that's no fun which is why they often sell for less than they're probably worth that wasn't how Charlie Munger rolled Munger like companies that dominate their Industries and make tons of money what we now call Quality Companies and you know what that strategy works too according to another data set that goes back to 1963 shares of the most profitable 30% of us companies beat the least profitable 30% at close to 4 percentage points a year and the top 30% beat the bottom 30% more than 90% of the time over rolling 10year periods has so many numbers the thing about quality is that everyone wants to own companies that make tons of money like apple or Microsoft or Nvidia so they're not cheap but if you could blend Buffett's value with MERS quality in their words buy wonderful companies at fair prices you'd have the Holy Grail and that's exactly what they tried to do but it's a hard combination to find here's what you're up against the most expensive 50 companies in the S&P 500 have an average return on equity which is a common measure of profitability of 153% meanwhile the cheapest 50 companies in the S&P 500 have an average return on Equity of just 9% in other words you generally get what you pay for in the stock market but not always every now and then if you're super patient and disciplined and attuned you might find that rare combination of value and quality and that's what Buffett Munger found an apple when they started buying it in 2016 y'all got to start paying attention man it traded at only 10 times earnings less than half the priced earnings ratio of the S&P 500 at the time it also came with a return on Equity of 43% more than double that of the S&P 500 talk about a wonderful company at a fair price Apple is even more profitable now than it was then but it's also a lot more expensive trading at nearly a 50% premium to the S&P 500 so now it's a wonderful company at an extravagant price which is probably why Buffett is taking some chips off the table Buffett likes to tell investors to own the broad market and forget about picking stocks as do I but that's not what he does so what do I do if you want to move closer to Buffet strategy without the risk of individual stocks you can buy a value fund and quality Fund in equal parts and there are a bunch to choose from if history is any guide you'll beat the broad Market most of the time but you won't rack up numbers like buffets for that you'll need a small and carefully crafted collection of individual stocks that takes a ton of time and discipline and even then it's hard to do well which is why I don't recommend it for most people but if you're tempted to try just be sure you're buying wonderful companies at a fair price
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