저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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2019년 초 글로벌 증시 낙관론: 과도한 비관은 이미 가격에 반영됐으며, 무역분쟁·브렉시트 등 불확실성 해소가 임박해 주식시장은 상승 여력이 크다는 주장. 결론: 연간 긍정 전망 유지, 2018년 말 저점 이후 반등 여지가 크다. 주식 전망 근거: 글로벌 기업 이익이 분기마다 컨센서스를 상회, 이익 증가와 밸류에이션 상승 기대. 2018년 12월 26일 저점은 측정 역사상 연말 조정 저점에 가까움. 반등 수치: 미국 장기 역사상 증시 조정 후 평균 반등은 배당 전 34%, 이를 적용하면 아직 20% 이상 상승 여지가 있다는 논리. 연속 하락 가능성: 글로벌 경기침체나 세계대전이 없는 한 연속 두 해 하락은 드묾. 선행지수는 일부 약세 지역이 있으나 글로벌 기준 상승 추세, 세계 경제의 85%가 성장 중. 불확실성 판별: 명확한 종결(브렉시트 결론, 무역협상 결론)은 불확실성을 줄여 시장에 긍정적. 시장은 사건을 미리 가격에 반영하는 경향. 무역협상 전망: 트럼프는 처음 과하게 요구 후 약 20%만 얻고 승리를 주장하는 패턴. 향후 60일 내 협상 마무리 예상, 시장은 이미 반영 중. 투자 전략: 지난해 약세였던 업종·국가(특히 강한 경제권이 2018년 크게 하락)에 투자하는 것이 V자 반등의 최대 수혜. 스위스 하락의 상당 부분은 12월 미국 헤지펀드 약 500곳의 동시 청산 매물에 기인. 리스크: 단기 조정 가능성, 지역별 약세 존재, 무역협상 불확실성 잔존. 출연자 전망: 2019년 글로벌 증시 긍정적 (주식 중심), 연간 낙관.
다듬은 글
a very warm welcome back to the living markets I'm had a wise and it's time for a monthly check in with handled items melanie los welcome back melanie thanks Jenna and of course we're joined by columnist and investor Ken Fisher and welcome to you as well Ken now in your latest column for handled item you see that sure there's a lot of negativity around I mean we can almost list the the issues facing the global economy right now China tariffs Trump yellow vests Briggs it and the general economic slowdown but again you're here to give us a little bit of hope why are you so contrary fundamentally most of what we've been doing as I said in my column is reaching as a cow chews cud the same topics over and over and over again so therefore in the way markets work they must be fully pre-priced secondarily that the positives ahead that provide falling uncertainty things like eventually we get to the end of brexit things like eventually we conclude the trade talks with China which shouldn't be too far away thing after thing actually speaks to better than people fear just looked overnight at German GDP which came in not robust but slight growth avoiding recession avoiding technical recession PMI soar party take take Switzerland the focus was on the manufacturing PMI x' which were still positive but down which is actually a long way to read them but the actual total swiss PM eyes were actually positive and slightly up at 57.8 people kind of can't quite get their eyes yet on the positive of things and they're focused on the negative one again going back to the swiss example PM eyes on manufacturing represent a much smaller part of the economy than on service but can now what makes you can what makes you so sure that that stocks especially european ones as you say in your current column outperform forecast which are rather negative so let me just make a couple of simple point if you look for example at earnings forecasts which currently on a global basis our first slight earnings increases every single quarter we beat consensus earnings estimates so therefore if you take moderate estimates of increased earnings and you beat them slightly you get slight earnings increases last year on a global basis and in fact in Switzerland we had rising earnings with falling stock prices meaning therefore that we had falling valuations the history of falling valuations in a year lead to rising valuations that next year so you get rising valuations and earnings that's nice the decline that bottom Don December 30 December 26 was the closest correction bottom or bear market bottom to the end of a calendar year in measured history and when you just look simply simply simply simply at the average bounce off of a stock market correction looking at the very long US history as an example it's 34 percent before dividends as I say in my column if you just apply that to this year for US stocks global stocks european stocks then you get to some still more than 20 percent to go ahead of the advance we already had in January to date in February so I'd make I'd make one good sorry sorry just to sorry to interrupt the other thing you are saying is that 2019 is gonna be a good year because there aren't any consecutive negative years its despite if there's a global recession what is there any evidence for this well we just have a very very long history of stock markets you just don't simply have to negative years in a row unless you get global recession or you get world war we're not gonna have either one of those I do not believe if you look for example at leading economic index is on a global basis with obvious pockets of weakness like you know in the third quarter you had weakness in the in London but if in five countries actually five Western nations but if you look at a global basis leading economic index is er high in rising overall with pockets of weakness markets are used to pockets of weakness we almost always have pockets of weakness but 85% of the global economy is growing and all you got to do is have moderate growth and we get a great year okay well let's just talk about some of the fears that you mentioned the china tariffs break said you call these concerns false fears how is an investor supposed to tell the difference between a false fear and a real fear well that's a tricky one but let me give you a couple of clues because obviously with lots of different ones there's lots of different details but one of them is when you have a clear ending because a clear ending ends uncertainty markets hate uncertainty and you take brexit for example we're gonna come to an ending the worst that people can envision is still better than no ending at all because all of the businesses that operate on a global basis finally get certainty as to what the outcome is and can finally move forward with plans what about the short term how is an investor supposed to navigate the short term edie markets pre price events simply people need to get into their bones that markets pre price they move ahead of events the end of BRICS it comes very soon if you just think of that markets are pre pricing that in right now secondarily if you look at something like the China trade discussions now you could go to two things here one of them is they either conclude soon or as has been discussed in the last 30 hours Trump may extend that for another 60 days but still markets pre price the next three to 30 months and the end of those tariff discussions will come there you look at what President Trump has done time after time after time in hospital discussions he starts off talking like a crazy man he asks for a lot and then he settles for about 20 percent of what he initially asked for you can see that in the last 20 four hours in his budget negotiations and government shutdown talks with Congress where he got about 20% of what he was originally demanding and screaming for but he got about 20% of it and then he caves that's what he does over and over again the trade talks will come to an end he'll get something he'll claim victory and life will go on but that's in the 60-day period ahead roughly and markets pre-priced that they love falling uncertainty that's what markets do good and your advice also in your column column is that people should invest in markets which have been weak last year and they're put two points there how can you be so sure and second when will they pick up as a category yeah as a categorical rule countries and major sectors that fall more bounce more and when you look at last year you can see just a lot of nonsense I mean a place like Spain with a growing economy did worse than hungry or Poland or Brazil or for doll darn sakes Russia same with the Netherlands France Germany now Germany of course had its issues we mentioned that a moment ago with the GDP numbers just coming in and just barely avoiding recession but the fact of the matter is that the stronger places that are doing well and growing got hit very hard last year and you want to move into those because categorically the broad category of what's fallen the most in a bounce-back in a V like pattern as I've described in my column bounces back the most most of the drop and this is particularly true for Switzerland most of the drop came as the result of these approximately 500 US hedge funds in December privately deciding to close without knowing that each other one was closing and all having to liquidate by the end of the year to complete that process not realizing that the others were so they prioritized speed over price and cascaded stocks down to the number 26 once that was over we get this bounce back and the things that got pressured the most come back the most okay Ken we're gonna have to leave it there we've run out of time as always thank you very much indeed for joining us for this monthly check-in thanks for having me I always enjoy it all right my thanks as well to Melanie loss from handled item and when can our viewers look out for the next installment from Ken yeah it's always out once a month and usually by mid month let's say and people can check it out in the paper and of course online on handless item dot CH okay thanks again Melanie thanks very much okay stay with us here on the Swiss pulsus plenty more to come on tonight's program and don't forget you can catch up with everything by logging on to our website CNN Money dot CH where you can also sign up for our newsletter which is a daily update of old Swiss news and trends that we're covering here on CNN money Switzerland thanks for watching bye bye
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