저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하반기에도 S&P500 상승 지속을 전망하며 S&P 목표가를 4,600으로 상향, 에너지·FANG·기술주 강세를 기대한다. 시장 전망: 경기 재개(리오프닝)와 억눌린 수요, 기업 자본지출 사이클로 하반기 긍정적 서프라이즈를 예상. S&P500 연말 목표 4,600으로 상향(기존 대비 7%), 월가 최고 수준. 에너지: 수급 펀더멘털이 매력적이며 에너지 주식은 아직 따라잡을 여지가 커 최선호 아이디어로 유지. 성장주·FANG: 3월 금리·인플레 공포가 식은 뒤 반등 시작. 애플·아마존 등은 연말 S&P 25% 상승 시나리오에서 하반기 20% 수준 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 금리: 인플레 압력과 리플레이션으로 장기적으로 금리 상승은 예상하나, 단기적으로는 기대보다 낮게 머물 가능성. 연말 10년물 2%까지 가도 S&P 4,600과 FANG 강세는 가능하다는 시나리오 제시. 비트코인: 30,000달러 지지가 견고했다고 평가. 연말 10만 달러 가능성 언급, 장기 금융 시스템 전환의 세대적 투자로 긍정적. 패널 반응: 반도체(SMH)가 시장을 주도하며 사상 최고치 돌파, 10년물 1.45~1.55% 박스권이면 S&P 상승 지속 가능. 기술주는 경기 둔화와 재개 모두에서 성과를 낼 수 있다는 의견. 고밸류 기술주는 금리 2%에서 부담이 될 수 있으나 경기 재개 대체 트레이드(금융·에너지·소재)로의 순환매가 건강하다는 평가. 리스크: 코로나 변이, 테이퍼링 가능성, 금리 급등 우려, 규제 리스크(비트코인). 출연자 전망: Tom Lee 강한 상승론, 패널은 대체로 긍정적이나 금리·밸류에이션 부담 지적.
다듬은 글
we start off with a record-breaking first half finale the s p 500 hitting another all-time high to close out the first half of the year with a 14 percent gain so things are off to a great start or nexus says just wait it's about to get even better really fun strats tom lee just hiked his year-end s p 500 price target by seven percent to 4 600 that ties for street high tom joins us right now tom great to have you with us great to be here you're not worried about slowing slowing growth compared to earlier this year an economy that reopened in the first half of the year in an economy that will sort of normalize in the back half of the year with the threat of of tapering in some form uh i think that you know i i don't think recovery is a straight line up but from what we can tell looking at both earnings revisions and and conference calls and and really talking to clients and businesses i think there's still quite a lot of pent up demand i think both on the consumer side right there's the revenge spending and then with both wealth effect and rising stock prices strong credit markets i think there's a corporate capex cycle coming which is essentially corporate revenge capex so i think there's a lot of positive catalysts for surprise in the second half so you still like energy energy was a sector leader first half you think that's still a winning ticket in the second half uh yes uh you know to us energy really sits in a special spot because i know investors uh you know kind of cool to the idea of some inflation plays but energy and oil really is a is a supply demand sector that's got very attractive fundamentals and then energy stocks have a huge catch-up trade to that so it remains our our top idea tom sorry the covet trade excuse me um where are you on names that really actually underperformed in the first half of the year after being the story of 2020.
so and to the extent i know you spend a lot of time going through screens uh and evaluating under performance um there are some really gross underperformers in the first half of the year what do you think about some of those trades um jim if you're referring to some of the secular growth and like the fangs uh i think they're going to be leaders in the second half um i think their turn really came when interest rates and the panic about inflation cooled off in march and that's you know shortly after those those stocks bottomed but when i look at the second half i think you're absolutely right if the s p is going to end the year up 25 and you know our rationale for doing that is that strong markets stay strong then something like apple or amazon which are up you know four or five percent they could have a second half of you know 20 just to catch up to where the s p ends the year so i think there's going to be a huge amount of price appreciation coming from tech and fang and some of these secular growth names and part of it is you know it we're not necessarily out of the woods in terms of covet as well i mean i think there's still some uncertainty from investors and you know their willingness to embrace epicenter stocks broadly tom how much attention are you paying to the 10-year yield being as though it's sort of range bound and you have both value and growth are there any flags that you're worried about as far as yield exploding or falling um that's a great question i mean uh i don't agree i don't disagree with the consensus view that rates should be higher in the future you know because we have reflation and we have an economy that's recovering and i think uh in general activity picks up so there should be sort of uh reflationary pressures plus the millennials um but i think it's really a question of timing and to me i think investors thought there was some urgency about where rates would move to and maybe a bit of a panic about that and you know the belief that the fed was behind the curve now i think there's kind of a realization the fed may be correct on a lot of parts of that transitory argument so i think rates in this in the shorter term probably undershoot people's expectations and then that's great for the fang trade as well so tom i i don't disagree with you i i fully agree with you when it comes to the fang trade but i've got a question for you about bitcoin where do you stand right now we've had this volatility of bitcoin where we were up above 60 000 pulled back underneath 30 000 and we've been kind of hanging right around this area right now at least for about 36 000 35 000 where do you stand right now do you see more upside at this point in time or do we see ourselves just sort of backing and filling um i mean i think bitcoins acted really well uh because you know the rug was pulled out from under it uh this year from both the combination of like the threat of you know taxation regulation in the u.s and then essentially an outright national ban in china on mining i mean those two things could have caused a crypto winter but instead bitcoin really held around 30 000 which i think is a really important level and now i think uh look it's going to consolidate for a bit but i don't i don't think it's uh impossible to say that bitcoin could exit the year around a hundred thousand so i think we're still you know the bigger fractal still a long-term positive story for bitcoin it's really about both the transformation of the financial system but also the fact that it's a generational play i mean this is one of the big sort of you know multi-decade stories and i think it's it's really held up well in the face of bad news tom i wanted to um sort of dovetail off of the rates question when do you think the market starts to anticipate higher rates because of the fed tapering and i'm wondering if that comes it sounds like you don't think that it comes in the back half of the year or you think that the markets can see tapering in the cards and not react poorly to it be just fine yeah i'm probably more in the second camp um you know this most recent fomc meeting was really the fed taking off some of the tail risks related to covid and so i think that was the shock that went through markets and the s p not only held you know not only actually acted pretty well i mean june was a great month but interest rates cooperated too so i think it's very possible that we could have a two percent tenure by the end of the year and we're still s p 4600 and fang could have a great year because you know at a two percent tenure you're paying 50 times for a government bond and i think fang doesn't look expensive at 30 times so i think there's still a huge tina or relative trade on owning equities over credit even at a two percent tenure all right um tom thanks so much for joining us we do appreciate it great tom lee of funstrat you can read more about tom's market call on our website cmc.com pro guy what's your take on being much more bullish or more bullish i should say from where we are right now he's done extraordinary work i mean if you listen to tom watch tom been on the show number of times i mean he's been pretty steadfast and being steadfast he's been spot on so you know far be it for me to cast aspersions one way or another i think it's interesting in the last comment about you could see two percent at the end of the year in the tenure and still see the market to his level along with bang that's a really interesting scenario that actually might play out i'm not certain i see that happening but you got to respect tom's work what i will say that we haven't talked about yet and tim brought this up last night we've been bringing it up for quite some time the leaders of this group the leaders of the market have been the semis and look at where the smh closed today i want to say you know an all-time high that 255 level had been resistance on the upside we blew through and some of these names have just been parabolic for good reason so as long as the semis can con higher sieves point ten 10-year which has been vacillating between 145 and 155 there's no reason to believe that the s p won't go higher as well i i sort of caught on to that tech comment as well in terms of the yields going higher in tech going higher and also that tech will be a performer in this environment when it was performer a top performer in the pandemic environment can you have it both ways where tech is the growth engine when the economy is stalled or down and out and tech can be the growth engine when the economy is reopened and reflating tim what do you think i think you can i think it's i think big mega cap tech is is growth at a reasonable price and i think they've been very defensive during periods where we've seen growth call under pressure um everyone here has just pointed out and steve pointed out you know the fall in the tenure uh you know that totally disproportionate or as you say inverse to what happened with the dollar so the second quarter was really about a a move lowering yields and a sense that the industrial kind of value story from the first quarter was giving way to what was really punctuated only you know at that fed meeting in other words those trades were already starting to work but if you look at where we are year to date some of the the real underperformers arguably have been apple have been amazon up you know two percent five percent so i i actually think that they are positioned for uh all-weather stocks in the second half because like if we got coveted again amazon's going to outperform and if we let me restate that if we actually have a resurgence and we are we are we are pulling back and the economy gets you know at least under the pressure of those headwinds i i think some of those same trades at least in the mega cap tech land work both ways yeah lumber is in 57 and 37 trading sessions so everyone that was worried about inflation that was pointing to those types of things yeah sure and and crude has managed to be up too but but there's still a handful of things that are transitory so there's no blanket statements either way right so that's the that's the way i look at it and tom sees that i i don't see above two percent everything working i think right here between 155 and 175 and tom was careful to say it's fang so we're talking about as to mention mega cap growth stocks pete what happens to high value tech at two percent yields software for instance what do you think well uh yeah it's a great question and i guess it depends on what what these guys were just talking about which would be the variant or or any you know kind of an extension of what we'd already just gone through in 2020 so um without that i think that those some many of those names probably have some sort of a chance mel but i think the reality is the names that i think folks would go for the names that hit the pause button in a big way and and these guys were pointing it out whether that means it's amazon which really hasn't done a whole lot or it could be apple which hasn't done a whole lot but they did have that second or yeah the second half of 2020 where they just absolutely were ripping and everybody said well the markets are going higher but it's only because of fang and then suddenly it became financials and and it became energy and it came materials and those took there so i think there is this healthy sort of rotation consistently that we have been going through and i think we could very easily see that once again whether that means it's those high multiple stocks that maybe kind of kick back in if there is any kind of a slowdown economically they certainly would be some of the names that i think would probably start moving back up to the upside once again but you know it really is interesting mel i don't know if it's as much about the tenure right now as it is more about the backdrop of what the potential from a medical standpoint what's going to be going on over the next six months
Comments 0