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Ray Dalio legendary fund manager and one of the world's greatest investors recently wrote an article about how investors must look to the future not the recent past when deciding how to invest let's discuss paradigm shifts roughly every 10 years the world changes dramatically if you can determine which shifts are about to happen you can profit greatly or as Daniel puts it identify the paradigm you're in examine if and how it is unsustainable and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops there are always unsustainable forces that drive paradigms for example history has been littered with periods of low interest rates low interest rates means that it is cheap to borrow money when money is cheap businesses are able to take out loans and invest into their company this paradigm or period of time is characterized by investments growing in value and economies thriving during these periods people extrapolate what they have witnessed in recent history to the future and make the assumption this paradigm will continue forwards however it cannot last forever eventually borrowers run out of borrowing capacity lenders become squeezed and credit problems emerge the result is a reduction of lending and borrowing which leads to falling asset prices and a slowing economy as an investor one of the biggest mistakes to make is to assume that these paradigms will continue endlessly in 2008 and 2009 we lived through the Great Depression the economy took a huge downturn and caught many investors off God why because the preceding years have been so prosperous the many made the mistake of thinking that this would continue forever looking back through history we can see this mistake has been made time and time again interestingly paradigms typically last for approximately a decade nearing the end of each decade we often see a big economic swing in 2019 we could be coming to the end of our current paradigm wash we expect over the next couple of years to answer this we must first consider what the main forces for our current paradigm have been since 2009 two terms come to mind number one low interest rates number two quantitative easing first up low interest rates interest rates define how cheap it is for individuals and companies to borrow money in an economy let's say a company borrows 1 million pounds at a 1% interest rates over 1 year they'd be expected to repay 10,000 pounds in interest if however they borrowed 1 million pounds at a 10% interest rate they'd be expected to repay 100,000 pounds when interest rates are low the difference for the company is 90,000 pounds extra in their pockets in this example as a result the company has more money to spend on growing their business when companies are able to borrow money cheaply ie when interest rates are low this provides a stimulus effect on the economy as a result when economies are struggling governments generally lower interest rates making money cheaper to borrow and hopefully growing the economy in 2009 economies worldwide were in a strong downward spiral governments globally stepped in and lowered interest rates to limit this effect number two quantitative easing quantitative easing is a fancy way of saying printing money apparently using the term printing money doesn't instill people with confidence quantitative easing involves central bank's creating new money out of thin air which is then used to purchase assets typically government bonds from businesses as this occurs there are two main effects number one the price of government bonds increased due to higher demand as their prices rise government bonds become less attractive investments number two businesses now have more money to spend when they are deciding where to spend that money they hood purchase government bonds which are typically the safest investment around but the prices have already risen so much instead they might look to more risky investments which can offer higher returns the result a further increased stimulus for the economy is this period coming to an end as interest rates are at global lows many central banks can't drop them further in fact some countries namely Switzerland Denmark Sweden and Japan already have negative interest rates in the example we gave earlier our business could borrow 1 million pounds at a 1% interest rate after a year the business will owe 10,000 pounds in interests plus the initial 1 million pounds if we now switch to a negative 1 percent interest rate and the business borrows 1 million pounds again they don't owe 10,000 pounds this time the lender owes them 10 thousand pounds that's right the business is being paid to borrow money if we jumped in a time machine went back 20 years and told an economist the negative interest rates would be a real thing they would have likely laughed this could be seen as an indication of an unsustainable force how about quantitative easing quantitative easing or money printing has had a strong stimulative effect since 2009 however it has had diminishing effect over time furthermore attempts to employ quantitative tightening the reverse of quantitative easing have caused taper tantrums in the markets what happens next monetary policy generally shifts back and forth between two modes number one helping borrowers at the expense of lenders by keeping interest rates low or number two helping lenders at the expense of borrowers by raising interest rates by asking who the central bank needs to help the most and what tools they have at their disposal we can determine what forces are likely to drive the next paradigm shift for Ray Dalio it seems obvious that they have to help auras relative to lenders in normal economic times this would mean lowering interest rates and employing increased quantitative easing however both of these have become less effective offering diminished returns over time what other policies are therefore likely Dalio believes that the monetization of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up which will reduce the value of money and real returns for lenders this will test how far lenders will let central banks go in providing negative real returns before moving into other assets in other words by reducing the value of fiat currencies and making lending less and less attractive investors may look to more risky investments thus providing an economic stimulus with this occurring there will be greater internal conflicts between socialist and capitalist about how to divide the pie and greater external conflicts mostly between countries about how to divide both the global economic pie and global influence in such a world storing one's money in cash and bonds will no longer be safe the big question then is which investments will perform well according to Dalio those that will likely do best will be those investments that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and a domestic and international conflicts are significant such as gold Dalio adds i believe that it will be both risk reducing and return enhancing to consider adding gold to one's portfolio within valios extensive economic breakdown and his discussion of how the upcoming paradigm shift may look he settled on the conclusion that the majority of traditional investments such as stocks bonds and holding cash look likely to have poor returns in the coming years instead he highlights gold an asset which has long been considered as a hedge against traditional markets a hedge against traditional markets is an investment which generally moves in the opposite direction to those traditional markets ie when markers are dropping a hedge will generally grow in value and vice versa looking back to the last Great Recession we can see that the S&P 500 a measure of the u.s.
is stock market lost nearly harver its value beginning in 2007 and bottoming out in 2009 during that same time period gold held its value well offering positive returns to investors as the emergence of decentralized technology grows crypto currencies such as Bitcoin have been thrust into the public eye due to its inherent decentralization and mathematically limited supply Bitcoin cannot be influenced or printed by governments with this Bitcoin has been described by many as like gold a hedge against traditional markets while dahlias article doesn't directly mention Bitcoin he does highlight market hedges I like many of you believe the Bitcoin is gradually transitioning into this category of investments bullish signs a word of warning for all Bitcoin holders out there myself included while bitcoin is viewed by some as a hedge against traditional markets it is still a very new asset therefore Bitcoin isn't yet accepted as a hedge by all many still view it as only a speculative investment being too heavily invested into such a volatile asset would likely leave you over exposed in terms of risk well the Bitcoin community often argue with gold fanatics stating that bitcoin is the new gold investors do not have to choose between them in fact with gold strong global acceptance as a good traditional mark hedge and Bitcoin only beginning to break out in this field it would likely make more sense for investors to consider holding both as part of a well diversified portfolio if you've enjoyed this video and would like to see more content just like this comment below with your suggestions on other topics and remember to subscribe disclaimer nothing in this video is intended as financial advice while Ray Dalio is considered one of the greatest investors of all time he is only human and he will be wrong from time to time following his words on my own without carrying out thorough research weighing up your risk tolerance and making your own decisions would be incredibly foolish
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