저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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중국 경제는 2023년 리오프닝 이후에도 기대만큼 반등하지 못했고, 주식시장은 지난 2년간 약 50% 하락했다. 중국 주식시장은 시진핑 집권 무렵인 약 11~12년 전 수준과 큰 차이 없이 사실상 횡보 중이며, 이는 시장이 중국 자본주의의 약한 혁신성을 반영한다고 해석한다. 미국 은행주·반도체주를 중국 및 서구와 장기 비교해 보면 중국 자본시장이 혁신을 못 하고 있음을 보여준다고 주장한다. 중국은 모방(copycat) 단계에 머물러 있고, 1990년 이후 일본과 유사한 장기 둔화 궤도에 있다는 견해다. 과거 덩샤오핑·장쩌민 시기의 개방 흐름이 시진핑 이후 통제 강화로 바뀌면서 자본주의 활력이 약해졌다고 평가한다. 중국 성장률 5%는 양호하지만 경제 규모를 고려하면 유지가 어렵고, 자본주의 시스템을 더 풀어주지 않으면 지속이 힘들다는 입장이다. 중국이 미국 경제에 실존적 위협이라는 우려는 과장되었다고 보며, 중국을 폭발적 성장이나 붕괴가 아닌 성장 정점을 지나는 국가로 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 단기 반등 매수 시점인지에 대해서는 판단이 어렵다고 하며 명확한 매수 권유는 하지 않는다. 중국 문화나 정책 방향이 바뀌지 않는 한 장기적으로 둔화가 이어질 것이라는 전망을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
a big discussion point in 2023 has been as China unlocked from their last round of co uh the economy didn't bounce back the way people thought it would it's still growing based on official Chinese numbers but at a 5% kind of level the stock market meanwhile over the last couple of years uh in China has fallen in half uh and is significantly smaller than it used to be the question people worry about is China on the verge of a decimation an implosion uh is that going to take down the world or is this the time to buy Chinese stocks with them down 50% and I I I would say neither the fact is you can look at this many ways and if you take the longer view which I encourage you to take uh I believe China is something that is not really well understood and thought of today because China had so much success for so long and you do have to admire that in what they accomplished uh with high growth rates for a very long period of time becoming the second largest economy in the world and becoming what's seen as an existential threat or potentially existential threat to the United States and the Western world there's just a lot more geopolitical tensions as you know very well about that st9 tradeoff between China us and the west and I might be wrong about this but I believe China is in its descendancy no longer in its ascendancy and it just hasn't come to recognize that a little bit like the dinosaur that gets hit on the tail uh supposedly legendarily doesn't feel it for a while the function of China can best be seen through the lens of capital markets the stock market is a pre-priced of the future just each of them a little differently and in that I encourage you to take a look at this if you look at the Chinese stock market where it is about now give or take a little it's where it was 11 12 years ago as president XI came to power no higher no lower around a little volatility bouncing the fact of the matter is in the postco bull market initially it ran up is given that back and a little more but the level that it's at if you just look at the longer term of about the last 12 years is basically flat as a pancake uh with volatility in between you can see this by going to almost any of the financial online easy to access websites that have pricing for um uh Securities you could see this at something like Yahoo finance or cnbc's website and I encourage you to do this because when you see that and you compare them to the Western World stock markets you realize the stock market's telling you something then go and compare oh this year in 2023 we've had a lot of concern about the US Bank stock Silicon Valley Bank and bank failures and wo you've heard a lot about that early in the year around March and April in May compare US Bank stocks to Chinese Bank stocks over that longer term and it's telling you we've had a lot of discussion about artificial intelligence and its role or not or or or compare Chinese semtive stocks over the longer term to us and Western semiconductor stocks and by that I don't mean to include Taiwan because Taiwan is part of the western semiconductor world not part of the China Chinese semiconduct World make that comparison and the Market's telling you something it's telling you that Chinese capitalism isn't really robust they aren't innovating they aren't doing the never yet done things that change all things in the material and economic world they're playing copycat and it's in some ways a replica going back to that time period of what happened to Japan starting about 1990 uh little different but similar in that I want you to see that China really did well starting out of the period of dun Ping's opening up of the Chinese economy followed by communist Chinese party CCP leader jang's leadership which was also a long long period of furthering what dasan Ping had been doing to open up the economy when who became leader you started to get a period where we didn't get more open but we didn't closed down when president shei took over you get a clamping down of freedom of the capitalistic system in China and with that stagnancy the growth would continue because of the prior momentum but I don't see China having the robust future 5% growth is good but at their size now keeping that up is tough to do if you don't let the capitalistic system run pretty wild when I say pretty wild relative freedom of capitalism like we have in America the fact is China's lagging in these ways America buy a lot particularly all the features that relate to Innovation but it's also lagging Europe and it's lagging the rest of the western world it's at this point lagging Japan and I think it is also true that the Chinese market has never much correlated in the short term with the Western Market and so the question of is this the time to buy for a bounce is very difficult to to discern but I discourage you from thinking the way so many people think that China continues on this super ascendancy I don't think it's the economic threat to the US that people think it is I think they have a very tough time ahead unless something changes in their culture that either has president shei change his thinking and reopen up systems in China as opposed to tampering them down or there becomes a new CCP leader that takes China in that direction so I encourage you not to think of China as either a boom or bust phenomena but to think of it as something that had a long Spurt of growth successfully and is now reach the culmination of that and relative to Innovation the future and the development and material benefits that come with that innovation of the future is playing copycat and is in its slow descendancy and therefore less to be feared than people think
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