저자: Charles · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼이 넷플릭스 주가 50% 하락 후 약 10억 달러 규모로 재매수했다고 소개. 현재 P/E 20대 초반, PEG 1 이상으로 적정가치 하단. 부채 낮고 잉여현금흐름 111억 달러로 재무 건전. 적정가치 중간값까지 약 40% 상승 여지. 다만 발표자 본인은 넷플릭스 구독을 해지해 콘텐츠에 흥미가 떨어져 투자는 보류 의사. 발표자 플랫폼 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman just made a big move on Netflix, but the stock is down a whopping 50% from its peak. I'm Charles, the founder of hellostocks.ai, an analytics platform created to help long-term investors find stocks at fair or low prices. And today I want to look at Netflix's fundamentals and valuation. After all, back in June 2022, Bill Ackman completely sold his stake in Netflix.
And he did it at a loss of $400 million. But if we move forward to our time , in his latest reports we see that Bill Ackman has reopened his position in Netflix. And it was no small position. He bought Netflix shares worth just under $1 billion, which immediately amounted to about 5% of Pershing Square's portfolio.
And he said that this opportunity came after Netflix's stock price fell 50% from its high. Apparently, Bill Ekman sees Netflix as an undervalued opportunity. So, let's take a look at the data by going to Hello Stocks and going straight to the Netflix valuation section. And here we begin to understand why Bill Ekman is so interested in this stock.
It is currently trading at a P/E ratio of just above 20. The P/E ratio alone does not tell us much about valuation. It should always be considered in the context of how quickly the company is expected to grow profits in the future. Hello Stocks forecasts a long-term annual earnings growth rate for Netflix of 20%.
That is, we see profit growth of 20% per year over the next three to five years. And that's remarkably close to Bill Ekman's expectations of 19%. So, when we take the P/E ratio and divide it by the expected earnings growth rate, we get a PEG ratio that is just above unity. For context: a PEG ratio below one would indicate undervaluation.
A value of one to two is usually a fair estimate , and above two it becomes increasingly expensive. Of course, provided that the stock actually achieves the growth rate you expect. And here's what's interesting about Netflix's valuation. We provide profit growth rates for a pessimistic scenario, a base case scenario of 20%, and an optimistic scenario.
But even in the pessimistic scenario, with the most conservative view of growth of only 12% per year, this PEG ratio still remains below two, just at the upper limit of fair value. In an optimistic scenario, with earnings growing by 24% per year, the PEG ratio drops significantly below unity. Is this optimistic scenario an unrealistic expectation?
Well, we can look back at what Netflix has achieved in the past for comparison. Annual earnings growth over the past five years has been just under 27%, and earnings growth over the past 12 months has been just under 36%. Suddenly, 24% as an optimistic scenario doesn't seem so huge anymore. In addition , Netflix is a kind of financial powerhouse.
This is an extremely financially sound business. He is not burdened with debt. The debt- to-equity ratio is just 0.47, and free cash flow over the past 12 months was $11 billion. And we can see all this clearly if we open the financial statements and take a quick look at the income statement. The last 10 years have shown consistent revenue growth every year.
And since 2023, profit growth has also become extremely strong . And if we look at the balance sheet, we see that Netflix has enough cash and cash equivalents to immediately repay about 2/3 of its total debt. And these funds can easily cover current debts. These are debts that mature within 12 months, which is the most dangerous type of debt, but in this case it is not dangerous at all.
Additionally, cash has increased year over year for the past 3 years, while debt has essentially remained at the same level. This is a financially sound, fast-growing business that is trading at what appears to be an extremely low valuation, and this is reflected in the valuation from Hello Stocks; it puts it at the very bottom of the fair value range, just a step away from undervalued status.
A return to the midpoint of fair value would imply an increase of approximately 40% from the current price. From a fundamental analysis perspective, this stock looks like a great investment, but there's almost one thing that's holding me back from buying Netflix shares. It doesn't show up in the data, but I firmly believe that being a customer of the companies you invest in can be extremely beneficial for building a strong portfolio.
You know the product and by default you know what kind of experience the customer gets. This is not an absolute necessity, don't get me wrong, but it is useful. I have been a Netflix customer for many years. However, I recently canceled my subscription. It's been a while since I've seen a movie or series on Netflix that I've been particularly interested in or enjoyed, and I have to take that into account.
I believe it would be crazy to invest in the stock of a company whose product you, as a customer, don't even want to use. Well, that's my personal opinion. I'm not a big fan of television anyway, and I'm sure many viewers have a different opinion about Netflix content, and there have been series on there that I've really enjoyed in the past.
I expect these stocks to perform well. My analytical mind tells me it's a good investment, but if I personally don't want to use the product, then I simply can't invest in it. That wouldn't make any sense. But I will definitely be following this promotion very closely. Quick, if you're investing in individual stocks for the long term, I have something that might interest you.
This is hellostocks.ai. It helps you find new investment opportunities and tells you how to respond to market fluctuations. Create a strategy—you can do this by asking our AI Daisy, for example, to find promising semiconductor stocks at fair or undervalued prices, and you will receive a list of suitable stocks.
You can save it and receive daily updates when a stock enters or exits the strategy, or simply follow the link to explore the stock in more detail. You will be shown the current valuation and how much it differs from the fair value. We also have a ranking system where the best stocks have outperformed the market on average since launch, and there 's a bunch of analytics that will alert you to things like EPS normalization, high debt, or current market sentiment—we can't tell you everything right now.
But in short: if you want to find quality stocks at a fair or low price, it will help you do it in seconds. Go to hellostocks.ai to learn more, the link is also below.
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