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Hi my friends, welcome to this new Sunday coffee Maurcache video which I'm recording, as you can see, in a slightly unusual environment. I'm not currently in the south of France, I'm out walking in nature so it's going to be a little different. Well, this video will be shorter of course, I'm also on a bit of a holiday and I would still like to talk with you very quickly about the somewhat confusing topics that are making a lot of noise in the financial markets and in the media.
First and foremost, the main topic is inflation in the United States. But also, I would like to address the subject of these reports circulating that she has Michael Berry who is shorting the AI sector. So Michael Berry is a trader who became known through the film Big Short and who made a fortune on the subprime mortgage crisis.
So those are the two topics I would like to discuss today. Should we perhaps short the market, and you will see what my point of view is regarding the current situation in this context. Um, I'll start with inflation anyway. So, the United States has published the CPIs and the PPIs. These are the statistics that the market was eagerly awaiting, and they came out in line with expectations.
But seeing them in line with expectations was normally very good news for the financial markets because we obviously feel the inflationary impact following the war in Iran. So obviously, the war in Iran is not stopping. We are still seeing negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran. He still has the contradictory communications that we have already become accustomed to and we wanted to measure the overall impact of oil prices which is obviously a direct consequence of this conflict on prices in the United States.
And obviously the underlying issue is the policy of the American central bank, which depends heavily on inflation, not just inflation but also employment, but inflation above all. That's the main criterion for the Fed, not just for the Fed, but for central banks around the world. And this good news was well received by the financial markets.
The markets have risen, but what I would like to point out is that they haven't risen that much because the market was tense; we were already very high and we were expecting this news as a future catalyst to go even further, possibly breaking the resistances on which the markets are currently located and possibly continuing the AI bubble.
The AI bubble is justified. So I use the word bubble. We're not going to debate whether it's really a bubble or not. Uh, we've already seen this topic in my previous videos, uh, but in any case, we can say that the boom, well, that's perhaps a slightly more appropriate term. So this publication of US inflation was supposed to justify the continuation of this AI boom on the financial markets.
In the end, it didn't happen. We had the rebound even before this publication of the Puria semiconductor stocks, shares of data center companies and so on. But we haven't really seen a surge in stock prices, a surge in stock market indices. We simply saw a modest reaction. What conclusions can I draw?
I can observe that the markets are really very high. And for this reason, in my previous video, I talked to you about an age protection that I took for my Myer Cash Patrimoine wallet that I present to my subscribers. Well, I'm still maintaining that age. Indeed, I did not benefit from this week's market rally.
Honestly, that increase wasn't huge . So I have absolutely no regrets about that because my wallet at the moment is slightly long. So, I have already presented how this hedging position was structured. I'm not going to repeat myself because, well, I don't want to make my videos too long, but basically, I'm slightly net, long on the financial market, but I'm not profiting from market rises like I used to.
So, I'm just giving you a little bit of context that I'm still at over 20% performance since the beginning of the year. I am better than SNP 500, I am better than Nasdaq and significantly better than KAC 40. So I can afford to be in a position of preserving my gloves rather than seeking further performance gains.
My portfolio is more of a balanced portfolio. It's not even dynamic, I would say, I consider it more balanced. And so with this risk profile, I think that really making 20% knowing that we did much more last year is really a very, very good result and I would like to finish the year, or even 2026 if you will, with these performances.
So. So this is just to give you a little bit of an ethical perspective regarding my stance, why do I have my wallet? Well, I continue to believe that by mid-September, that's when my insurances, my shorts will expire. We have every chance of correcting because the markets no longer seem to react as much to very good news which could have caused the shares to soar in other circumstances because precisely the technical momentum, purely technical, I am not talking about fundamentals at all.
fundamentally, uh, he has books, he has seen the results of Microsoft, the profitable ones. Not only do semiconductor companies, which are sort of uh, selling the picks for, you know, like in gold mines, actually, are they the ones selling the instruments to accompany the LIA revolution. But there are also companies like Microsoft and Google that show that the investment they are making is already showing signs of profitability.
And that was the main concern because the amounts of Capex going into this sector are colossal. These companies needed to reassure people that they were investing in something good, and not like what happened with Metaverse in the Tsukerberg Meta when they invested in something that ultimately didn't work.
So clearly, it's profitable at the moment. We'll see if that changes in the near future or not. But in any case, the markets are generally reassured about the LIA sector, apart from these conductors who supply the hardware, once again, as well as the consumers of LIA, therefore the hyperscalers and service companies, there are the services rather than software.
So, that's what the overall situation is like. I think that a technical correction is necessary and we can already see how the market reacts to good news. That's it, that's my stance. I'm not waiting for a crash, I'm not waiting for a market fall. I'm waiting for a correction. We have already seen an attempt at correction, but it needs to be profound.
After such a powerful rise, we can expect an even deeper correction. So, that's my overall point of view. And now, in this discussion, I come across another topic, it's the famous Michael Berry who said he shorted Nebus and not only that, but both companies have soared on the stock market since he announced his short position.
And uh, here there are actually two topics if you will, because the first topic is how they interact with this information. For me, it's purely market noise, clearly for various reasons. The main reason is that when you listen to gurus, and Michael Berry, I don't know if we can consider him a guru, but let's say he's a guru, even if it's Warren Buffett, even if it's I don't know who, you always have to understand that you don't know their full position.
If I take the case of Michael Burry, unless he is completely stupid and a cowboy, I think his position is not made up solely of two lines of shorts on Pentir de Nebus. Well, I hope so for him anyway, because otherwise it would be a real shame. Certainly, there are other positions besides. What are these positions?
We don't know . Maybe where he shorted for, I don't know, 100 million, but opposite there is, he is in a 500 million long position on something very correlated. So you see, that changes everything, doesn't it? For this reason, I only present my personal positions in the Myur Cash Patrimon club because there, I show my whole strategy if you want because, for example, you can also see that after this video I am short on the markets, but I am not short on the markets because I have a large portfolio on the side.
B, a large portfolio, relatively, uh, it's for someone who has, who is next to these shorts. So obviously all these drops on potential short positions are offset and largely offset by the gains in my main portfolio. So maybe it's the same for me. Do you see what I mean? So we must always be careful about this phenomenon.
After reading this information, sometimes I get the impression that it's just for the sake of creating a buzz because statistically it seems more interesting to short this kind of information than to try to follow it. Every time we hear a guru, I do n't know Sorose, Warfet, anyone, say that yeah he's sold out or he's bought something, then either it's too late, or this hypothesis is not confirmed.
And yet, we see in the reports that these investors continue to make money. And that brings us back to my first point where clearly this is not their only position. So. But overall, I agree once again that in the short term, we may see a market correction, perhaps a fairly strong one, but that does not call into question the AI revolution.
The revolution has happened, it's here, it's confirmed in the company figures. Not only will companies that supply the instruments and hardware for artificial intelligence benefit, since obviously there are capex for semiconductors, but also companies that integrate AI into their business. So there you have it, for me that's really the main conclusion of this season's results.
And the third point I would like to address in this video, I am going to hide because I am afraid there will be too much wind and I did not take wind protection. And the last point I would like to raise in this video is that, and I have always said, semiconductors are the oil of the 21st century. And lately, I've been questioning that statement.
Perhaps I was wrong after all. For what ? Because look, semiconductors have a particular characteristic: they age very quickly. If I take an example from the early 20th century industrial revolution, when they were building railways, transmissions, I don't know, appliances, engines, cars and so on. When you build the rails for the trains, it can be useful to you decades later.
Given that semiconductors, even the most powerful ones today, in 4 or 5 years, I'm not sure anyone will be using them. Tell me in the comments what you think, but for me, semiconductors, especially for AI, are still very specific. The computing power required today to form the LMs is so immense that perhaps there will be other new technologies coming later that will be more efficient, requiring less computing power or more efficient computing, notably the quantum computer, which I made a video about not long ago, could change everything.
All these very specific types of chips and semiconductors are coming to form the LMs, but I don't think they will be useful to us for very long. So, that's my point that I'd like to raise today in this video, and that there is still a certain fragility in this semiconductor sector because while there is precisely this wave of AI revolution, it works.
OK, that probably works. We can see that there is a huge shortage of semiconductors internationally. It has become a geopolitical issue, but in the long term, uh, I'm not so sure about that. We need to see how the technology evolves. Instead of transistors, instead of this chip system that we have today which has existed since the 1950s, it's very old this system based on transistors and today we have reached the limit because the size of transistor is approaching the size of DNA in fact which is the minimum size that we can have in the world.
We can't go any smaller. We can't make the transistors any smaller. We're already at 9 nanometers. So. So, inevitably, there will be a lot of investment in alternative technologies to potentially seek another semiconductor architecture that is not based on transistors. Once again, I come back to quantum computing, which is based on cubites.
You're watching this video about quantum computers because I obviously don't want to repeat everything now, but it can change everything, plain and simple. And I don't know what we're going to do with all these old chips, cards, and so on. That's a question I've been asking myself. Are semi-conductive vehicles really the oil of the 21st century?
We will need it constantly. We will constantly need computing power. Yes, certainly, but perhaps the architecture will change and as a result this architecture of current semiconductors will be profoundly transformed. So, my friends, to sum up American inflation, that's rather good news. There is no surge in inflation in the southern United States due to rising oil prices.
Then Michael Berry, we don't care, he can short what he wants. My friends, we must always focus on quality. As I always say, uh, your strategy is your own. Choose the stocks that seem inexpensive and of good quality and have good competitive advantages. That's how I invest in the Minder Cash Patrimoine portfolio and that's why I envy you doing it.
It's about being consistent with your strategy. And thirdly, the semiconductor sector is undoubtedly booming today. Most likely it will continue to boom after the small correction I expect by mid-September. Uh, but uh, in the very long term, well, but in the very long term, even in the long term, we have to see because we're really at the limit with this model, with its capabilities, and maybe there will be other things that will happen soon .
So there you go my friends, don't forget to like please because every time I forget to say it, I get far fewer likes on the video. So I repeat, uh, share this video with your friends who are interested in the stock market and finance. Welcome to the Myer Cash Wealth Club. I would like to remind you that Myender Cash also offers training courses.
in particular in the optional section where I talk about how to protect your portfolio against systemic risks and training on technical analysis. All the links are in the description of this video if you're interested, and we'll see you very soon in the next cash videos. Bye bye.
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