저자: Alex · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라는 강력 매수 추천, 5~10년 장기 보유 관점. 3분기 실적: 매출 210억 달러(전년 대비 75% 증가), 순손실 10억 달러에서 흑자 전환 분위기. 3분기 주당 이익 1.90달러로 예상 손실 0.42달러를 크게 상회. 주가 254달러 시가총액 460억 달러, 시간외 20% 상승해 300달러 이상, 시총 약 540억 달러. 중국 기가팩토리: 도장·차체·일반 조립 단계 진행, 사실상 생산 중으로 판단. 일정보다 앞서 있으며 올해 생산 가능성 언급. 자본지출은 단위당 약 65% 감소했으나 원가 전체가 65% 싸지는 것은 아니며 감가상각 효과에 가깝다고 설명. 제품 일정: 모델 Y 테스트 생산 중, 2020년 여름 인도 예정. 세미트럭 2021년 초 생산 전망. 중국 공장 4분기 10만 5천대 목표를 크게 상회할 것으로 전망. 재무: 현금성 자산 50억 달러 이상으로 유유히 유럽 기가팩토리 투자 가능. 현재 차량 수익과 중국 공장 성과로 자금 조달 문제 없다고 판단. 투자 조언: 300달러 수준에서도 강력 매수. 5~10년 내 200~300% 이상 상승 잠재력 제시. 단기 변동성은 크다고 경고. 성장주 투자자에게 적합하며, 적자 기업 투자가 불편하면 몇 분기 기다릴 수 있으나 지금 진입을 권장. 배당주 투자자에게는 부적합.
다듬은 글
thank you for joining me I'm Alex and I would like to talk to you about Tesla and that's because I'm extremely excited about what they reported and specifically what the outlook is for the next couple of years but first even though I've covered it before I'd like to go over the basics what they do is electric cars solar panels and batteries and mine or other stuff current price is 254 dollars which gives them a market cap of 46 billion dollars but they went up about 20% after-hours so currently the price is over $300 which gives the market cap of 54 ish billion dollars so obviously huge gains there and that's why I'm covering that today dividend obviously zero revenue 21 billion dollars which is up 75 percent from the previous year earnings negative 1 billion dollars which is down I guess from 2 billion dollars of a loss in the previous year and that gives them a p/e of about negative 120 so they're losing or they lost in the past year three dollars and 60 cents on a $258 stock so actually not that bad total assets 30 billion dollars to liabilities 24 billion dollars total stockholders equity 5 billion dollars and pretty much everything going in the right direction and fast so the earnings call today was mostly about they managed to have a profit this quarter or q3 2019 where they were expected to lose about 42 cents per share they gained about $1 90 per share so not only are they beating it they're just crushing it and there's the outlook for the next year that is so extremely exciting for me and what many analysts get wrong is about the gigafactory in China but cover that later so they said that gigafactory china is producing cars right now basically so they're saying that they're doing paint they're doing body they're doing general assembly which does not necessarily mean they're producing the whole car there right now but they're getting extremely close to that I would assume that there's a few things that they're not doing there yet that they had to ship in from the US but they haven't released specifics because you know that would probably give more people more of a clue on where things stand exactly and they probably don't want that right now but gigafactory china is ahead of schedule and is probably going to produce cars this year then they said model y is in test production right now which is why there's been some sightings of model y's around in the wild and they're going to release or start shipping them in summer 2020 so less than nine months away and I assume that they if everything goes well that could be even sooner and then gigafactory China they said that they reduced capex per unit of about sixty five percent and in the amazing video that galley did on hyper change he mentioned that it's going to be 65% cheaper to produce the car there which is not the case and Ali's world of stocks actually made the same mistake capex does not mean that it's that much cheaper to produce the car it's just the machines and the factory that will produce the car are 65% cheaper than the model 3 line that they initially built in Fremont the major costs are still materials and workers so obviously the the capital expenditures is reduced by a significant amount i assume also the workers are already by a significant amount because they learned so much from building the machines and calibrating the machines in production hell for the model 3 that they have an easier time setting all that up and probably don't need as many people in China as they do right now in Fremont to produce the model 3 so while I think that there will be a significant reduction in cost in the model 3 in China there will not be a 65% reduction in cost it's just that the capital expenditures that will be amortized over time will be significantly lower which means that more more of the car is profit and counted as that rather than you know having to build more machines more of a factory and all that so it's just a slight accounting thing versus an actually profit margin on the vehicle that means that the factory and the production line was significantly cheaper but that's paid for already so it's already on the balance sheet it's just that the accounting for that comes later so all that and especially semi truck probably in production 2021 probably early 2021 so everything looks amazing right now and I assume that going forward they will have a fairly significant profit and depending on how the China gigafactory wraps up I think that they will be significantly over their target of one hundred and five thousand cars in q4 and I do think that they will generate a significant profit there and they will start actually sinking some money into the gigafactory in Europe over the next year so they think they're saying that they're very close to announcing a location for it which then means that they can start planning it getting it built and all that with significant expenditure and obviously they have over 5 billion dollars on the balance sheet right now on cash and cash equivalents so that means that they should not have any problem paying for that especially with profits from their current cars coming in especially if the China gigafactory wraps up very quickly so I think that even at the $300 or 306 or whatever it's at right now I think that Tesla is a strong Buy and I think that the stock has the potential to go 200% 300% even more in in five to ten ish years so if that's your horizon and you can deal with the swings without you know trying to sell it or do any significant moves it's going to be a very volatile stock even over the next five years but I think that it will go up quite significantly over the near term so if you can handle the swings I think it's a good stock especially for a growth investor if you're very hesitant to invest in companies that don't currently have a profit I think that you could wait another couple quarters in which case I think that they will be technically a profitable company but I think it's not advisable to wait for that so even for a value investor I think that you should probably get into the stock right now rather than waiting for them to be profitable and obviously for a dividend investor you're out it's still a great stock that's it for me for today if you like this video make sure to subscribe I'm coming out with more videos every day before market open I hope you have a successful day
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