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that's immersed like what do you think about the valuation chamat trading it 200 times or 50 times I'm in your Camp the simple thing about price to equity ratios is if you take the price equity ratio and you invert it that's your implied Yi price earnings price earnings price earnings sorry and you invert it that's your yield right and so chath palahia highlights nvidia's dominance in the AI Hardware space describing it as a near Monopoly at the hardware layer he emphasizes the company's aggressive positioning in this critical and rapidly evolving Market however he points out the challenge Nvidia faces with its high valuation which implies a low yield compared to Alternatives like bond for NVIDIA to sustain its growth competitors such as AMD Google Microsoft and others must introduce significant advancements to prevent Nvidia from completely running away with the market palahia anticipates substantial announcements from major players in the coming quarters to challenge nvidia's dominant he also underscores the urgent need for competitors like AMD to act decisively whether through Innovation or Acquisitions to compete effectively in the AI chip space despite nvidia's impressive performance and momentum he acknowledges the risks tied to its high expectations and the difficulty of sustaining such extraordinary growth levels over time and so it's very important to understand that there's no extensibility here so like if Nvidia continues to drive this quickly and and continues to execute like this it's a oneandone one company monop in AI at the hardware layer and I think that that people are probably thinking about how to blunt that competitive outcome but that's what I took away from that from that announcement from them which is like they are ready to go for the jugler here in what looks like the most important Market Nvidia is yielding at these prices I think it's somewhere like 2 to 2 and 1 half% Which is less than and it's almost half of a typical 2-year Bond and so when you have a yield that that's low you have to see it just grow absolutely massively but there's this principle in capitalism which is in order to grow like that you you're generating so much profit that competitors look at it and say hold on you don't deserve that much profit I'm going to take some of that your profit is my opportunity your margin is my opportunity I think that your margin is my opportunity is exactly what happens so I think what I'm waiting for freedberg is like in the next two quarters if AMD Facebook Google Microsoft and Amazon don't announce something substantive there's a very good chance that Nvidia runs away with this so my bet is in the next two quarters you start to see some real action so that folks start to have to balance their forecasts where it's not just 100% Nvidia but it's Nvidia Plus+ plus and that's sort of what I would bet because it just seems like logical and right because I I otherwise it would it would be pretty derel of these hyperscalers to just just throw their hands in the air and just give the whole Market to them and it would be derel of AMD the other thing that's happening is and am you know AMD is AMD is a great memory solution but they really don't have a deterministic AI chip and I think that Lisa Sue needs to get needs to act decisively here and build something announce something buy something but she needs to be really aggressive here Josh it's a top two position I think for you we're going to have to wait until November 20th for earnings so we got a minute to wait there um what's your read here what's your take on on Brinn buying more up here well I always Ro for Brin but I would just say we know AI spending has been and should continue to be explosive the question is how much is already baked into the expectations for the stock you're talking about a company that out of the last 5 years has had a triple digit return uh stock return in four of those five years you're basically talking about a company that uh over the last year has grown its earnings per share by 45% it's grown its sales by 195% and investors have gotten accustomed to that kind of eye bulging eye popping growth and it's just hard for me to understand where that's going to come from we already have the expectations based on all of the other mag seven names and the hyperscalers that are going to be doing this sort of investing we know that we also know that there's been a global push for companies uh to experiment with AI incorporate AI Etc so who who's left is is Jupiter and Mars going to start contributing here to the forward guidance so that's the that's the risk I don't necessarily think that that it has to be feast or famine there's a universe in which Nvidia reports great numbers the stock doesn't rally but doesn't get killed either it's just a a massive company with already embedded huge expectations and the gains of the past are unlikely to be repeated from here doesn't mean there's not another 10% or another 15% I just think it gets harder from these levels and I'm saying this as a long so in the name that's what no you're big in the name that's that's why I went to you next um but wh you're in the name um is there more uh near-term risk in this name now um given the run that it's had as I as I said um the time of Bren buying it here just give me the way that you would observe you know doing this now well just mathematically when you're coming up to an event that's Catalyst for the upside or downside given the performance you cited there is more risk but that's short-term risk and Bren buying it now I'm sure that regardless of what happens this quarter if you look out a few months she's going to be happy she did so it's always difficult to pick the timing on buying a name uh or adding to it and she's adding to it hav been there for a long time so clearly right now they are in The Sweet Spot and clearly they can meet the demand that they're seeing from customers and want to be customers so it's a great thing to do and as I mentioned I think a few weeks ago the fact that Jensen Wong has been so visible and talking about demand he's got to deliver and him not be anything but a foolish person I believe he knows it's going to be a great for now what the whisper numbers get to be when numbers move like this who knows but who cares Moment In Time makes the point too that I mean the factor of momentum is a very very powerful it's a very powerful thing but I but I'd also say that Taiwan semi Taiwan semi is the direct perhaps the most direct beneficiary of the strength in Nvidia and they announced on their Phoenix fab right that yields are 4% better than their Taiwan Fab so that is powerful that stocks had a good move but I still think it's going to have great move over the four-year time period if you look out 23 to 26 forward earnings they have double revenues right they'll have doubled earnings I mean that's tremendous performance not quite in video like but I also think it's much more sustainable yeah so next week we know which we're going to get into we have the Oscars of earnings with all of the big names that we talk about and I think that how do you play that trade I own Nvidia I've owned it for a long time and I think the stock technically looks like it's breaking out it had been consolidating for the past couple months but I feel really confident Microsoft Apple via chat via open AI meta Google Amazon are all going to be talking about what their AI initiatives and so I think next week we'll have some winners and losers some disappointments but I think all roads once again lead to Nvidia and you're going to continue to see huge capex spends from these companies as they're all individually looking to monetize their own endeavors into Ai and I still think Nvidia is in pull position to benefit from all of that capex spend so I took the opportunity to add to it yesterday yeah it's um in the midst of pretty good momentum it's up 18% month to date it's been up 28% in some 3 months as I said it's barely off of its record high the others have a little bit more to go um so unafraid I I I find Brinn um to even after that kind of momentum to buy it here rather than wait for a pullback which hasn't been out of the question for this stock over a period of time yeah well I mean I've actually the way I've been playing the stock is you know I have sold calls against it so when the when the stock sold down I Clos those call positions so just owning the stock and so I'm like taking advantage of the volatility and I think that's a good thing to do with a lot of these names like an Nvidia or a Tesla but I just still see when I'm looking at Apple or Microsoft's you know earnings and revenue growth really aren't that strong it's is part of that because of all of the capex especially a Microsoft is going to be doing and I just think Nvidia is going to be the recipient we won't get their numbers till the end of the month and so I just think it's a good opportunity where next week is going to be a buy Nvidia and I think that's going to be a consistent story from all of these companies who are spending billions of dollars on Blackwell on h100s h20s chth palahia Highlights nvidia's dominance in the AI Hardware space describing it as a near Monopoly at the hardware layer he emphasizes the company's aggressive positioning in this critical and rapidly evolving Market however he points out the challenge Nvidia faces with its high valuation which implies a low yield compared to Alternatives like bond for NVIDIA to sustain its growth competitors such as AMD Google Microsoft and others must introduce significant advancements to prevent Nvidia from completely running away with the market palahia anticipates substantial announcements from major players in the coming quarters to challenge nvidia's dominance he also underscores the urgent need for competitors like AMD to act decisively whether through Innovation or Acquisitions to compete effectively in the AI chip space despite nvidia's impressive performance and momentum he acknowledges the risks tied to its high expectations and the difficulty of sustaining such extraordinary growth levels over time
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