저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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하워드 막스는 과거 금리 수준과 비교해 현재 금리가 여전히 높지 않다고 보며, 미국 인플레이션이 2%로 복귀하면 추가 금리 인상은 필요 없을 것이라고 본다. 2021~2022년 대출 만기 도래로 부채 문제가 부각될 수 있고, 신용 투자(크레딧, 채권, 대출)는 2009~2021년보다 높은 수익을 낼 수 있다고 주장한다. 미국 시장은 비정상적으로 고평가되거나 저평가된 상태가 아니라고 평가했다. 장기적으로 미국 금리는 2~4% 또는 3~5.5% 범위에 머문다고 전망했다.
다듬은 글
we all have opinions we all we our official dictum is that it's okay to have an opinion you just shouldn't act as if it's right and and and I think this is this is very important you know Mark Twain said it's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble it's what you know for certain that just ain't true are you looking to start your investment journey in 2024 maybe this is not the best time to start said Howard Marx why did he say that did you know that Howard marks has more than 20 years of experience with the equity markets he has seen markets upside and downside and H has a good idea of how they might perform in the future 2023 has been a crucial year for financial markets which have shown growth and tenacity even in the face of uncertainties and issues around the world though you might want to start investing on your own is it better to take advice from numerous investors you're about to start your financial Journey from scratch and are confused about how to start so you start watching several videos and articles and found that you need to pile up the available resources this will help you reduce the wastage of time in finding good materials where do you see yourself as an investor in the next 5 years Howard marks is the chairman and co-founder of oak tree Capital Management and he is worth more than $180 million moreover he's also the author of well-known memos which make the public and clients excited even though the majority of analysts predicted that the us would have a recession in 2023 economic growth has continued to surprise everyone consumer expenditures not withstanding inflationary pressures drove the Market upwards in 2023 and US employment also remains stable the economy gradually cuts jobs although unemployment was still low City group's economic surprise index was in good flow in 2023 but will it continue its bullishness in 2024 what's your take on this after piling up all the materials that will help you Kickstart your financial Journey you decide to start with them you started with books by remembering the quote books are the mirrors of the Soul you grabbed a book named Rich Dad Poor Dad what your friend recommended he told you that the book will help you reshape your financial perspectivenext surprise since Q4 2020 was recorded in Q3 2023 it was valued at 7.5% but does that mean that there is no probability of a fresh high for profit in 2024 well similarly 2023 gave more return than analysts expected we could see that Howard Marx gave a good prediction on how the market will perform Marx said that the government actions can have significant impacts on the markets after completing the book you now know that the house and car you use daily are no longer an asset as they are consuming your money in the form of Maintenance this became a fresh perspective for you and now you crave more such insights Marx said that even though the current economy is not performing well the Time Will Reveal those swimming naked marks added that it will be the time when when loans in 2021 and 2022 begin to mature according to Marx a worse economy combined with the surge of maturities Might result in a wave of huge debts he continued while rates were still close to zero we are forced to face the fact that they have been delaying those maturities for years Mars continued that if you get maturity spiking in a weak economic period or weak for certain groups that is the time one has to be cautious we're really talking about maturities that have been pushed off to next year after getting a good finan mindset you're not starting to learn about different investment types however you don't have much money to go for Real Estate Investments or rental income so you decided to learn about how stock markets work Marx added the question is which companies and industries are performing well when conditions get tougher he argued that the key now is to figure out whether prices reflect reality and get to know whether we are in an underdeveloped or overdeveloped economy what would that look like if you were to start purchasing things like books courses and so on that don't value Marx said you might be insulted for doing such things but they don't know how much value such assets can bring Marx also expressed his belief that inflation in the US economy should come back to 2% moreover he anticipated that the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell would soon announce the exciting news as a person who is starting completely from scratch you don't even have any savings to start your financial Journey so you decided to add some value to the people around who can pay you in return you are a person who can write good content so you started looking for clients who need your service fortunately to your surprise you're able to get a client who paid you very well according to Marx Powell stated that rate Cuts won't occur until the economy is moving towards 2% he added I believe the phrase towards holds great significance power remain silent until we reach 2% maybe he will start cutting if inflation starts to reach 3% 2.75% or even 2.5% Marx did point out that because of the greater return returns being offered people who started investing in credit instruments like oak tree Capital Management are profiting from the present interest rates your content writing journey is going pretty well and now you're going to scale this by starting an agency however you understood the importance of having a team to scale the business better fortunately your networking capability helped you identify some members who can be valuable Assets Now you're working as a team to scale the business according to Marx while rates are not historically high they are higher than they were between 2009 and 21 hence this implies that investments in credit fixed income bonds and Loans will yield larger returns than those made during that period he added and we can see that the returns were lower in the period between 2009 and 2021 however after focusing more on the agency business you found out that you are not getting that much time to learn about investing hence it would help if you started researching experts who can help you in the investment Journey soon you identified Howard marks as a good match for your purpose so you started following him along with doing your research according to Marx a lot of investors are hoping for a high return in this era of really low interest rates but he believes that time is gone although rates have increased more than they have in the previous 20 years he claims that they are still not high when compared to historical values Mars also described how the FED funds rate was at an average of 8.2% in 1969 the year he began working at that time he said that the rate varied from 4% to 20% over the next 20 years want to know how the rate was between 3% and 8% from 1990 to 2000 marks considered this period as an average one and he compared that with the current rate of 5.25 to 5.5% although you were able to find many successful predictions made by Mark you couldn't Mark any future predictions so you started looking for one the whole idea is to grow your wealth over time in beat inflation and you believe that marks can have a huge impact on this Mark believes that soon inflation will rise to the fed's Target of about 2% as a result no further rate hikes will be required moreover he anticipates a gradual recovery followed by a slight recession furthermore marks predicted that the FED will have the ability to lower rates once more hence the stock market and economy should benefit from this although he raises doubts about it he doesn't disagree with this popular opinion we need to know that nothing works perfectly in this imperfect world you are now spending some time watching the predictions for Marks now you were happy that you learned something about how the the market Works in real time Marx believes that us rates will be between 2 and 4% for the next several years in addition he stated the rates will on average range from 3 to 5.5% during the next 5 to 10 years so if you are a person who has some idea about human history you might want to know what is the basis of human sustenance we can evolve and sustain ourselves in a changing World those who struggle to evolve will perish that is the law of human nature one of Mark's strongest qualities is his ability to assess Market conditions without any partiality moreover he is more subtle while many investors strive to make headlines with extreme opinions we can see that in his most recent stock opinions according to Marx the US market is neither abnormally High nor low and doesn't present a fat pitch we've heard another sentence that conveys the same meaning as Warren Buffett's after learning all the concepts you're now planning to make your First Financial investment moreover you thank the past you who took that decision to level up our investment Journey with Howard marks is coming to an end hope you got some insights on how the market really works especially during these hard times please don't forget to hit the like button and if you found today's exploration insightful don't forget to subscribe to our channel for more thought-provoking content thanks for watching
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