저자: Steve/MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 아직 기관 자금이 본격 유입되기 전이며, 유동성 장세 속 상승 여력은 남아 있다는 진행자 견해. 비트코인의 성격 논쟁: 발언자 Steve는 비트코인을 금과 달리 실물이 없고 공급 한도(2100만 개) 외에는 합의에 의존하는 자산으로 보며 회의적이다. 진행자는 이 평가를 비판하며 기관 운용자들이 비트코인의 기본 구조를 제대로 이해하지 못하고 있다고 주장한다. 기관 자금 흐름: 진행자는 운용사들이 포트폴리오의 1~2%를 인플레이션 헤지 목적으로 배분하기 시작했다고 주장하며, 아직 대형 자금이 들어오지 않았으므로 가격이 크게 움직일 여지가 있다고 본다. 테슬라의 비트코인 매입(약 15억 달러 규모로 언급)을 초기 신호로 해석한다. 리스크: 해킹·블록체인 붕괴 등 큰 위험이 존재한다고 인정하면서도, 비트코인을 미래 통화로 믿는다면 가격 상승 여지는 크다고 본다. 엘-에리안 발언: 주식시장에 사상 최대 주간 자금 유입이 나타나고 있으며, 약 1.4조 달러 규모의 부양책과 계좌 개설 급증으로 유동성이 계속 들어온다고 진단한다. 가격은 높지만 유동성 장세의 추세는 여전히 상승이며, 현재 시장을 '합리적 거품' 구간으로 본다. 달러·금: 엘-에리안은 달러가 추가로 크게 약세를 보이지는 않을 것으로 본다(백신 접종, 경제 역동성, 외국인 직접투자 요인 고려). 금의 매력 일부가 비트코인으로 이동했다고 평가한다. 경고: 유동성이 과도해지면 사고(accident)가 날 수 있으며, 적절한 시점에 이익 실현이 필요하다는 조언도 함께 나온다.
다듬은 글
this market's frothy as heck but muhammad al-aryan has a couple of really interesting points that's gonna make you think twice about selling that bitcoin i'm gonna get to muhammad in a second i just want you to listen to these money managers real quick because their viewpoint on bitcoin is eye opening so steve let me start with the most basic question i genuinely have which is what is bitcoin i sort of understand blockchain a little bit and know that it's made up but what is it as an asset well that's a good question and maybe i'm not exactly the right person to ask because i'm on the more skeptical side of the ledger on this but essentially it is a currency that was created and the theory behind it is a certain number of bitcoins have been mined and there will never be more bitcoins and therefore you can have some confidence in the value of it because there's a limited amount of these things and uh and and they therefore will retain their value and if i'm sounding a little bit halting it's because i don't completely buy the whole thing you're essentially saying that we're going to create a store of value and a medium of exchange around something that only exists inside of a computer somewhere it's not a physical asset and so you look even at gold uh and gold is a physical asset gold has other uses uh besides simply people investing in it we put it in jewelry put in dentistry and so forth and it has been a store of value for 5 5000 years and people have accepted it as a store of value so the idea that bitcoin is some kind of store of value uh to me it kind of feels a little bit like wampum what's the difference between bitcoin and wahham oh steve the difference between bitcoin and wampa is i can't make more bitcoin i can make more wampum right i can go down and collect more seashells steve that's the difference right isn't that a thing steve maybe is that a thing which was a store of value in native american times so i'm i'm a little bit on the skeptical side of it but it is it is intended to be by those who believe including very very smart people like elon musk as a medium of exchange and a store of value and they are moving very fast uh in that direction and we're going to find out sooner or later whether that actually works or not so is there any ready analogy i mean is it like a commodity some people say it's like a commodity is it like a currency is it like a security what is it you know it has behaved a little bit uh like gold over particularly in the last probably 12 18 months but what has also been interesting i think steve was saying it has a limited size right now what is it about 900 billion or so that has been issued and so when we talk about the i have to jump in here just because they seem so uninformed like it seems like these people are in charge of literally millions of dollars of people's money and they haven't even read like a little paper about what bitcoin is this woman's quoting the market cap of bitcoin no idea how many bitcoins are in circulation will be in circulation it doesn't seem like she actually knows what it is which is stunning 0.5 billion that elon musk bought and put sort of on the cash books of tesla it's not that much i was really surprised that he put it on the cash side because it is so volatile and so much more volatile than gold has been so if you are going to include it in a portfolio and i think you know the jury's still out as to whether it will or will not stay have staying power as steve was saying but let's assume that you think there is some staying power with something that is that volatile would you put it in your cash portfolio or would it be like a pretty high risk high volatile high volatility um part of your opportunity portfolio ifsani is absolutely right what we are hearing and seeing among people who do what we do managing really large pools of capital and diversified way on behalf of wealthy individuals or charitable causes they are actually moving to do this they are actually allocating one percent two percent some relatively small amount of airport he just told us that the people he knows he's in the money management field are allocating one percent two percent of their holdings to bitcoin or in the process of doing that to bitcoin as an inflation hedge they they see it the same in the same role uh that commodities have played although i don't think it's commodity david because the quantities are so limited uh the same role that commodities are gold or things like that have played historically institutions are actually now doing this they're putting it in their portfolios thinking it's a good inflation hatch would you put it in your portfolio steve until someone convinces me that there's some real reason to believe that it is a store of value uh and an inflation hedge both but at least a store of value that will be accepted over the next 10 20 30 40 years i think we're going to hold off until i get some convenience 10 20 30 years he's gonna hold off guys this is the majority of money managers are the same way they don't they don't buy in right now totally understandable they need to be safe with their people's money but the reality is they don't actually get it they don't get what it is they don't actually understand the fundamentals of what it is which is very simple but they don't seem to understand the fundamentals of it's a limited supply and then after that the only thing that really matters is that it's agreed upon after that it's the only thing that matters is that it's agreed upon we could all agree on wampum today if we wanted to agree go back in time with steve we could agree on it today the problem is is that people can make more it can be destroyed easily all those sort of things that's the problems that bitcoin solves and a lot of people guys this is it a lot of people at the money management level don't actually understand that which i think provides a great opportunity because it makes it seem like wow 450 000 60 000 bitcoin 40 000 bitcoin whatever it is today might be cheap like these guys haven't even gotten in the game the big money hasn't even gotten in the game at all like elon and tesla are just the very very tip of people dipping their toes into this i'm standing what about rock creek you know we're looking at things like custody rules and seeing how sort of the new regulators will start looking at bitcoins which is still not clear but at least we know that with gary gensler and others coming in they have a lot of knowledge of how the financial system is changing with these new tools and we'll look at this carefully so for us i think we will start looking at it a little bit more seriously a little bit less skeptic than stevie's and uh we can compare notes okay thank you so much to our round table starting to look at it they're starting starting to look at it i'm telling you this i saw this and i'm like wow man i mean i knew elon getting tesla involved was a big deal of course it's a big deal it's a step but this reminded me that we're not even at the start of this thing it hasn't even started basically this is retail moving this price up and a couple of early wealthy investors like tesla but we're not even at the start if you think bitcoin's the thing like of course there is risk massive risk it could something could break the blockchain somebody figures out how to hack it it gets destroyed whatever something could happen there's massive risk of course but if you believe in bitcoin and you believe this is the future um that price hasn't even begun to move now quick transition because i saw mohamed el-erian did a uh interview on cnbc and i thought it fit right along this line because i think muhammad knows what's going on and can give us also that really really big money perspective so let's check out what muhammad has to say first question is about positioning and inflows when you look at all the data there is it suggesting things are going to rise further from here or or are we getting a little bit stretched thanks for having me wilfred it's suggesting both so the path of least resistance remains up we've just had the highest weekly inflow into the equity market ever so people are putting it to work charles the highest inflow into the equity market ever amazing it's completely amazing and the reality is there's a whole nother what 1.4 trillion dollars of stimulus coming into this market um and muhammad has a really interesting outlook here uh about the whole situation bob's reported that there's been a massive increase in account opening and there's more liquidity on the way having said that we are at rather elevated prices but this is all about liquidity you've heard me say this over and over again it is technical the path of least resistance is still up over time when you see something very interesting i mean i'm all for taking profits and i've been advising people all week myself included take some profits took some profits but then i started hearing this and i say oh man that 1.4 trillion in stimulus is coming in uh where else is this money going to go it's got to go somewhere uh is it going to go into the market is it going to go into bitcoin is it you know where else is it going to go you know real estate's already tapped to record highs you know there's only so many places to put cash uh to have easy access to it let's see what else tesla which has been a darling of course in the market buying bitcoin uh which has also been a darling at the market did you start to think this is this is marking the top or uh is it a bigger transition that's bullish for both both uh assets so that one is has a specific element to it which is the broader acceptance of bitcoins and it's not just tesla that is saying you can use it as a form of payments it's others too but you could have had in that sentence so many other things you would have had specs look at the amount of spat activity we have had everybody and the brother and sister are opening specs you could have all sorts of things that indicate that we are frothy but remember the notion of a rational bubble yes we are in bubble territory but it's rational because of all this liquidity and the liquidity keeps flowing mohammed the latest is secretary janet yellen in her first call with g7 finance ministers and treasury secretaries today brought the go big message there that now is the time to do something big on the economy and yes they were talking about some technicals of expanding the imf fire power through sdrs but what is the potential for more stimulus not just from the united states at this time so she took the message go big to apply both to national budgets where she's going to have less success but also to apply to the imf sdr issues which is basically an issuance of currency that if it happens countries will wake up and find that their deposit account has gone up at the imf and they can spend it so i think she will succeed on the global liquidity element because most other countries will go along um but she's not going to be able to move other countries very much on their own budgets the u.s is going to be way ahead and do if you just do the numbers it is incredible how much liquidity is likely to be injected in this economy the big question is will it create an accident at what point does a lot of liquidity become too much liquidity with that in mind uh is there going to be an accident yeah i mean is there any way we get out of this thing just completely complete destruction i mean there's just no way right there's no way this could never end well so do take profits at some point but you know it's just you you pump multiple trillions of dollars into the economy into people's pockets they just buy stuff they buy every stock on earth they the crypto markets going absolutely bananas everything's pumped literally everything's pumped um what are you going to do what are you going to do mohammed are you a believer that the dollar is due to weaken further despite already having been soft of late uh and why isn't gold performing better with all of this liquidity out there so first i'm not a believer that the dollar will weaken a lot from here i think we've seen most of the weakening because it is about more than just liquidity it also has to do with vaccine distribution where we dominate europe it has to do with the dynamism of the economy with foreign direct influence so if you add everything up it doesn't look as much as bearish for the dollar um so that's one two goal gold pot of gold part of the attractiveness of gold has gone to bitcoins and i think that explains a lot where bitcoins is as well gold is no longer seen as the only defensive vehicle now bitcoins are starting to attract a lot of people that are in there for what i call negative reasons you have the positive reasons people that believe it's going to be a global currency that believe it's going to be a form of payments and then you have the negative reasons people who just are protecting themselves against all sorts of things great stuff by muhammad he's uh he's sharp and that guy's got some amazing viewpoints uh agree with him on most everything and his his view on the liquidity you know i i knew that i think everybody kind of knew that intuitively you pump trillions of dollars in but he just reaffirmed it like hey man we're we might not even be yes we're in bubble territory but with all this money coming in and it is being pumped on the international and national level what's gonna happen uh probably stuff is gonna go up more uh as they say pop upwards so keep that in mind guys i
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