What Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) JUST Admitted about Inflation.

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사회자 Kevin이 ARK Invest 투자서한 275호를 인용해 인플레이션 시각을 논함. 본인은 2021년 9~10월 인플레이션 하락 전환을 예상하며, 공급망 병목으로 인한 이중주문·재고 과잉 가능성, 베이스 이펙트로 2022년 전년비 인플레이션 음수 가능성을 언급. 10년물 금리는 3월 1.74%에서 하락 추세(약 1.47%). 원자재(목재·구리) 하락, 유가 하락 전망. 본인은 단기 예측 대상 자산을 명확히 지목하지 않음.

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01. that 40 off coupon code is expiring within approximately the next week check it out link down below for the amazing course what kathy would just admitted regarding inflation and i have to say this is something i haven't thought of before this is actually something that adds to what we've been talking about inflation this is why i always try to read everything i can about inflation whether i agree with them or disagree with them because folks have very different perspectives and i love it now many of you who watch this channel already know that my belief is that come september and october we are going to see a downward inflection in inflation because we're going to be out of base effect period and we're going to start seeing companies say hey it looks like supply chain issues are starting to let up now don't get me wrong supply chain issues are going to last in my opinion for two to three years and we have some big benefits starting in september and october that reiterate my belief not only do we have q3 earnings coming starting in october but we have unemployment ending in september which should create more labor supply less wage pressure and we have schools reopening which again more labor supply less wage pressure and overall we should be in an environment where we are so distant from the madness of covid and from the madness of very very high year-over-year inflationary data and inflationary reopening data that's been happening over the last few months including massive price increases in month-over-month data and used cars a seven percent uh jump in airline tickets a month over month i mean you've got some insane price increases a lot of these things will subside by september and october and they're already starting to show their well the fact that they're subsiding so this is why i personally have believed that we're going to see this september october kind of inflection point to the downside in inflation but what does kathy would say because this video isn't about my opinion that just kind of catches you up to speed a little bit this video is about what kathy would just add to this the discussion and specifically what she said or what her company said that we have not considered before at least on this channel because i haven't mentioned it yet and i always like to add to things uh that that i'm talking about because i think that's how you get depth so here's well here's the chart of weeble and the poison bitcoin which is not exactly what i was planning on showing you and that's because my ipad is unplugged sorry about that but while we're here i may as well mention that if you deposit a hundred dollars with the weevil by going to bedkevin.com weeble you will get yourself up to two free stocks uh worth all the way up to eighteen hundred and fifty dollars okay now that i uh accidentally plugged that let's go ahead and jump on over here so this is ark's investing letter number 275 the big thing we're going to talk about this is is inflation or deflation the bigger risk to or opportunity for equity equity being stocks of course so i went ahead and highlighted the main parts here and i'm going to show you exactly what the big wow factor was for me so take a peek at this during the last nine months in response to the v-shaped recovery hey it's larry kudlow's v-shaped recovery global equity markets are rotated away from growth stocks toward value stocks this is true and they give us a reason why which i think the reason is pretty interesting as well touch on that commodity prices soared increasing fears of inflation and higher interest rates while earnings growth from cyclically cyclically sensitive companies offered stiff competition to that of growth companies this is actually this is not the big part but this is something to consider is like hey when when does like a cheesecake factory offer you the growth that uh that like an apple or tesla does right that's pretty rare it's pretty rare that you're going to see that kind of uh of movement uh in cyclical stocks in this case we call them recovery stocks because these are retail stocks that have recovered from the pandemic so good point you know you had good competition there and quite frankly over the last eight months you would have made a lot more money investing in those recovery stocks than you would have in tech stocks and so this is what they're acknowledging here that stiff competition given the short-term horizons of most investors in the public equity market nice slam here at sort of most investors here calling them short-term investors but quite frankly they're not wrong most people are short-term investors dramatizing these dynamics so during the three months ending march the 10-year treasury bond yield doubled to 1.74 this was a record-breaking increase for such a short period of time but also while others extrapolated the trend in the future arc has maintained that inflation would prove temporary okay that's not really the bomb there uh i want to show you though quickly something that they say here that is very interesting about the 10-year treasury bond so i'm going to pull up the 10-year treasury quickly this is from bloomberg so thank you very much for allowing me to show this bloomberg take a peek here so uh what they're talking about with this extrapolation is actually something that's very very good to consider is this is the trend of uh the 10-year treasury which this was sort of a reaction to oh my gosh it looks like big inflation is coming and this kind of corresponds with the sell-off in tech which really began over here when people started realizing oh my gosh treasuries are selling off uh which when treasury sell-off yields go up treasury yields are going up oh my gosh inflation fears whatever tax starts selling off uh pretty much over this period right here you have tech selling off but what you'll notice is we have this massive slope here of a rising trend a big inflation fear they're acknowledging that people extrapolated this in the future that we were going to the moon i mean pundits were coming on cnbc going oh my gosh we're going to have 2.25 10 years uh no we barely hit 1.74 at the peak and then we've been down since then in fact if you draw the trend line down if you draw the trend line now from the peak you can actually see the trend is pretty well to the downside here we've got a solid downward trend here certainly not as fast as the uptrend that we had here to the downside but we have a downtrend and we're seeing that downtrend even more recently here with treasury yields for the 10 years sitting around 1.47 right now okay back to the letter here while others extrapolated those trends into the future arc has maintained that inflation would prove temporary thanks to both base effects this means you're comparing to last year which makes inflation look like it's larger than it actually is and keep this in mind we're probably going to have literally the opposite happen next year think about this and now i know this sounds a little kooky but think about this for a moment when you look at cpi data you look at uh consumer price index which is a number going up over time it hit this hole in 2020 because of the pandemic and started going up so when this was april of 20 and this was april of uh 202 or 21 over here when you're comparing into a hole you're artificially getting a larger year-over-year comparison than if you were actually comparing to where you would have been headed not for the been for the pandemic right well guess what's going to potentially happen because we're seeing such an increasing incredible squeeze on on inflationary pressure so many inflationary pressures right now it's entirely possible that we've actually seen inflation temporarily inflect up a little higher making this even worse this exact exacerbating this and it's entirely possible that when we get used car prices and chip prices and all this sort of good stuff start inflecting back down and we get sort of a temporary downside inflection we do a little bit more like this it's entirely possible that next april so april 22 we look back to uh to april 2021 and we actually have a bunch of inflation measures that look negative that's crazy it's a total mind twist and it's really hard to think about right now in fact i tweeted about this a couple days ago that it seems like a total mind twist that it's that maybe and this arc thing came out today just so you know timing wise but it seems crazy that possibly in the future we could see negative inflation readings on a year-over-year basis i mean consider this right here this right here is my tweet see june 20th today is june 22nd follow me at real meat kevin anyway markets will continue to freak out in different industries through september and october i believe this is my opinion when inflation starts to inflict down this fall guess what we look forward to 2022 comparisons to high 2021 prices aka negative inflation doesn't that possibility feel weird to consider and i had a little bit more of a tweet storm that you could kind of look at here if you want to at realme kevin on twitter is where you can follow me but the point here is whoa bass effects you're gonna have the opposite probably next year we'll see anyway back to the arc letter hero okay so thanks to temporary bass effects that's what we just described caused by price collapses last year again right here boom price collapses during the pandemic got it okay here we go are you ready for this this to me was the bombshell listen to this one i thought this was great and due to supply chain bottlenecks we already know that here we go that will cause double and triple ordering of supplies and a massive inventory overhang mic drop oh my gosh hadn't even considered that this is so brilliant so brilliant i haven't even considered it thank you thank you arc invest this is brilliant like seriously i had not even considered that because we're having so many supply chain shortages now companies could actually freak out over the supply chain shortages because supply chain shortages don't just make it harder for them to deliver products to their customers but guess what supply chain shortages also do they make it harder for companies to innovate because if a company wants to innovate and release a new product so let's say they have a version one of a product and then they want a version 2.0 of the product well if you have supply chain shortages you might not have enough supply to produce both products so you might literally take innovation in your 2.0 product and put it into your back pocket for the future don't believe me read and faces earnings transcript folks it's literally happening this fear and this disaster of basically preventing innovation from happening because of temporary supply chain shortages could absolutely lead to what arc invest is calling the double and triple ordering of supplies leading to massive inventory overhangs where basically you fill up your warehouse with a bunch of extra supplies and you kill just in time transit or just in time inventory just in time in inventory by the way is like the innovation of capitalism j a or j i t just in time why does oops that's twitter again there we go why does just in time inventory matter because think about it folks if you're assembling a car what that's a pretty horrible car but whatever if you're assembling a car when do you want the tires to show up when you just put the frame on the conveyor belt and you're working on putting the seats in and the bolting the roof on unless you're tesla okay sorry bad joke uh and you're assembling the car or do you want the wheels to show up when it's about to when it's painted and it's about to roll off the line and all you need to do is put the wheels on the brakes are in the axles and the motors are and everything's in when do you want the wheels to show up do you want it to show up when you're just at the beginning of the production process or do you want the wheels to show up right when it's ready to roll off the factory line well generally what you want is you want the wheels to show up literally the day like just in time inventory would be the day you need the wheels they show up now obviously logistically companies you don't generally perfect this but you try to get to as much of this as possible because what you don't want is to have a warehouse full of products because those products are money that you don't have invested and they represent products that get old you have inventory management issues uh you have quality control issues you have theft issues you have a lot of problem inventor problems inventory on the shelf is generally the kiss of death well until of course covet came around kovitt came around and killed just in time inventory and kovitt came around and said you know who was really smart toyota toyota was really smart for hoarding inventory something that most companies in capitalistic environments haven't been doing well guess what kovit just killed jit govind made it so that jit is dead and we don't want just in time inventory anymore and this massive inventory overhang uh it could potentially lead to some big fat fat fat earnings for suppliers over the next few months but will also potentially also lead to large cash outlays for companies that need to be buying chips and products and things like this but will make companies more resilient to future supply shocks and also lead to a reduction of prices in the long run because there is less pressure to buy product exactly when prices are high because you have no other choice and this is in part why it's very likely that inflation is going to inflict downwards we're not even talking about the fact that we're in a deflationary society that technology makes products not only better to where we don't need as good of a product anymore we could do with a less expensive product i can now do with a 500 phone instead of a thousand dollar phone 10 years ago back 10 years ago you want the iphone you pay a thousand dollars not considering the uh contract subsidies that you initially got when you got iphones uh now you could do just as well with the 500 iphone you don't need the most expensive one you certainly don't need the 1500 one unless you want those three cameras because you're a youtuber or something like that point is deflation is part of our society it's part of our future a lot of these inflationary pressures are temporary now about 55 percent of you watching this probably believe me and about 45 percent of you watching this think uh i don't know kevin i appreciate your insight but i still think we're going to have high inflation that's totally fine i respect you because all of you can equally join my courses on the psychology of stocks real estate investing property management sales and making youtube videos via the link down below using that expiring 40 off coupon code but folks for right now let's keep going with this letter here so moving on with the letter here what do we have with the exception of oh well they do believe that commodity prices will begin to collapse and they've already started collapsing they talk about lumber going down 46 percent copper dropping about 12.7 percent they believe that oil prices will fall very soon helping lead to inflation particularly or leading to that inflation going away particularly if drivers in ride sharing in the ride sharing space take advantage of the low total cost of ownership of ev ownership yeah i don't know about that one i think we're a little early for um people getting into eevee ubers but we'll see maybe certainly hybrids i could see that but uh i think the downtime might be a little bit of an issue still with charging so i don't think we're there yet on that but otherwise i have to say this is very very very interesting i appreciate this from arc thank you shout out to arc really good job hadn't considered inventory overhangs uh certainly i'm on the same i'm on a similar wavelength as them on a lot of things some of our stock picks are a little different but that's okay hey you know what everybody's got different opinions but i've got a very similar outlook to arc with some differences this phenomenal thank you thank you very much appreciate you watching this video please if you liked this kind of content consider subscribing when you press the subscribe button it sends a big signal to me and the channel that you want more of this kind of content thank you so much for watching we'll see you next time